Well Zelda BotW is track to be best selling Zelda game ever, Mario Odyssey best selling 3D Mario game ever, Splatoon 2 alredy sold out Splatoon 1, Smash Bros for Switch could be best selling Smash Bros ever, only hard to beat is MK Wii beacuse it had strong bundles, so its not hard to imagine that Pokemon on Switch become best selling  Pokemon game. Also from Pokemon GO, there are plenty of new Pokemon fans.

There is reason for that, Pokemon was always far more popular than Zelda and 3D Mario, its easily strongest Nintendo IP, so if we look big Nintendo hiters on Switch until now, first HD Pokemon game will also be huge in any case, how much huge we will see, but at this point 20m+ sounds very believable.

If Nintendo plans to sell it for 10 years as their only platform and it gets multiple revisions as well as price cuts, it might have a slim chance.

I mean Pokemon franchise. NSW can get two to four mainline Pokemon games. 

Exactly. 

sony gave up on the handheld market, because the market was shrinking, and there handheld really didn't have a market anymore, sony wouldn't have given up the handheld market if vita wasn't a huge failure, even nintendo which are the king of handhelds saw 50% decline in there handheld sales. having 2 platfroms that are successful=way more profit. imagine if nintendo made the ps4, they would be killing it, and would also make the switch as well, and porting nintedo games would be a breeze, and thirdparty support would be great.

No Sony gave up because they got destroyed and couldn't support 2 platforms this was shown in both PSP and Vita, 3DS is going to finish it's LT with 80m or so sales when combined with the 14m Vita sold that's 94m units which shows that your talk of their being no market is untrue in every aspect. Nintendo saw a 50% decline following the DS which is the highest selling platform of all time under your logic the console market in the PS3 era didn't have a market anymore because the PS3 had the same decline from the PS2.

Having two platforms that drain resources doesn't lead to profits as the development of games, marketing and R&D of both negates any money made having one platform that hits multiple markets is far more viable and healthy for a business than two, it only worked before because developing on portables used to be dead cheap and require only a few people now it takes console level teams. You must be new to gaming because anyone who has been around for a while can tell you its not a platform like the PS4 that brings third party support its market approach and licensing type.

man almost everything you said its wrong. psp/ds combined for 230 million, the market shrunk to around 90, comparing it to ps3 makes no sense because ps3 sales just didn't just disappear, 360 took them, unlike psp/ds, where the market such obviously shrunk. also ps2 is the best selling platform of all time.

I disagree about having 2 platforms is draining resources, especially with how easy porting is these days, if nintendo knew they could make a powerful home console that could sell well they would have,  they obviously  decided to combine both as there market share was shrinking and they had to bring there A game to stay relevant. porting any nintedo switch game to a home console like ps4 would be a breeze, and require very little cost and effort.

Exactly. Nintendo combined their markets because they couldn't compete with home consoles. The worst selling PS home console was less than 15M away from catching their most successful home console. And other than that blip, Nintendo home consoles have seen steady declines. And just like Sony, they saw the incredible hit the handheld market took after the introduction of smartphones. So, instead of competing head on or relying solely on a shrinking market, they chose to focus their resources on a unique hybrid system.

@ OP

I'm guessing no. I think it will end up around the 3DS, maybe a little more. So, 70M-80M.

The market didn't shrink it went back to normal because DS like PS2 is an anomaly the device sold outside of gaming and even helped influence the iPhone while PSP had a similar case in how it sold with it being used as a portable emulator and homebrew device, compare the units moved to the GBA era where 80m units were sold and the GB era were 118m units you'll notice that the DS/PSP era is the odd one out as the the 3DS/Vita era's expected 94m units falls in line with every other portable era showing a consistency and even growth outside of the anomaly.

Read what you just said here you're talking about porting why are people going to buy 2 devices that share ports across them this highlights your lack of understanding in business the two devices sold because they had their own versions of exclusive franchises that's how the market works so each device wouldn't use porting it would require ground up development of exclusives this would mean 2 Zeldas, 2 3D Marios, 2 Metroids, 2 Animal Crossings etc... That's a massive resource drain to the point where one platform ended up suffering as development for portables is now the same as it is for consoles this is why Sony didn't even support PSP and that was during the era before your argued shrink, under this logic it's better to just have one device for both markets if you're going to have the same game for both that way you have one development cost, one manufacturing cost for a platform, singular marketing etc... They combined both because they can retain both markets with a single platform and user base while managing resources more efficiently.

Umm how was ps2 an anomaly? all 3 consoles combined  sold almost 200 million? the next gen right after ps4/360 sold around 180 million, and if nintendo had a traditional console it would have did 20-30 million, thats about the same as ps2 era, now his gen were probably looking 180 million with all 3 combined not including switch, so i'm not seeing anything similar compared to handhelds. the market for handhelds shrunk because of mobile gaming, and smart phones.

the lack of understanding of my  point  hurts my head. question if nintedo made the ps4, and had the 3ds as well, you think they would just combine the markets? basically giving the powerful dedicated home market to Microsoft? the reason nintendo combined markets is because that market is already saturated by Microsoft and sony, because thats where third party games  are established and sell consoles, if ps4 and Microsoft didn't exist you think nintedo would just combine markets, and then not make a powerful home console? then get real