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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Symbios63 on 08 August 2018

July Summary :

Amazon : 1) NS : 313.1 points/day (+12.7%) ; 2) XBO : 119.5 points/day (+23.7%) ; 3) PS4 : 3.0 points/day (-28.6%)
Amazon last month : 1) NS : 277.8 points/day ; 2) XBO : 96.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 4.2 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 363.6 points/day (+9.5%) ; 2) XBO : 299.6 points/day (-28.8%) ; 3) PS4 : 241.9 points/day (-45.1%)
Best Buy last month : 1) PS4 : 440.4 points/day ; 2) XBO : 421.0 points/day ; 3) NS : 332.1 points/day
Gamestop : 1) NS : 90.0 points/day (-17.4%) ; 2) PS4 : 88.1 points/day (-74.6%) ; 3) XBO : 4.9 points/day (-94.3%)
Gamestop last month : 1) PS4 : 347.3 points/day ; 2) NS : 108.9 points/day ; 3) XBO : 86.5 points/day

Overall : 1) NS : 413.2 points/day (+3.9% ; 1.00) ; 2) XBO : 160.4 points/day (-35.3% ; 0.39) ; 3) PS4 : 138.9 points/day (-68.3% ; 0.34)
Last month : 1) PS4 : 438.7 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 397.5 points/day (0.91) ; 3) XBO : 247.9 points/day (0.57)
Last month NPD : 1) PS4 : 375k (1.00) ; 2) NS : 325k (0.87) ; 3) XBO : 240k (0.64)

PS : Numbers with the 1.3 multiplicator for XBO :

Overall : 1) NS : 413.2 points/day (+3.9% ; 1.00) ; 2) XBO : 208.5 points/day (0.50) ; 3) PS4 : 138.9 points/day (-68.3% ; 0.34)

Last edited by Symbios63 - on 08 August 2018

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xMetroid on 08 August 2018

Prime day is huge if this is true.
Tool seems to be working really well so far, well done everyone involved :p



Train wreck on 08 August 2018

Gamestop is now allowing you to order the base PS4 Pro with a delivery date of 8/17



quickrick on 08 August 2018
zorg1000 said:
Symbios63 said:

If those numbers are accurate :

June 2018

Tool result : 1) PS4 : 438.7 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 397.5 points/day (0.91) ; 3) XBO : 247.9 points/day (0.57)
NPD results : PS4 : 375k (1.0) ; NS : 325k (0.87) ; XBO : 240k (0.64)

That would be another great month for us :))

ps : I thought XBO was higher could you share a link to the discussion leading to those numbers ?

Those are the winning numbers from the prediction thread on ResetEra.

XBO was up 100% YoY in terms of revenue but the X model being $500 and not available last year means that unit sales will be a good deal lower than 100%. If these numbers are close to accurate than thats a ~60% YoY increase in unit sales.

XBOX X was out sold by 30k by the ps4 pro in june, combined they represent 30% of ps4/xb sales. https://www.neogaf.com/threads/npd-sales-results-for-june-2018.1464314/page-3#post-253375959

I wouldn't look into those prediction  numbers so much, using the NPD info is much better.



globalisateur on 08 August 2018
Symbios63 said:

July Summary :

Amazon : 1) NS : 313.1 points/day (+12.7%) ; 2) XBO : 119.5 points/day (+23.7%) ; 3) PS4 : 3.0 points/day (-28.6%)
Amazon last month : 1) NS : 277.8 points/day ; 2) XBO : 96.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 4.2 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 363.6 points/day (+9.5%) ; 2) XBO : 299.6 points/day (-28.8%) ; 3) PS4 : 241.9 points/day (-45.1%)
Best Buy last month : 1) PS4 : 440.4 points/day ; 2) XBO : 421.0 points/day ; 3) NS : 332.1 points/day
Gamestop : 1) NS : 90.0 points/day (-17.4%) ; 2) PS4 : 88.1 points/day (-74.6%) ; 3) XBO : 4.9 points/day (-94.3%)
Gamestop last month : 1) PS4 : 347.3 points/day ; 2) NS : 108.9 points/day ; 3) XBO : 86.5 points/day

Overall : 1) NS : 413.2 points/day (+3.9% ; 1.00) ; 2) XBO : 160.4 points/day (-35.3% ; 0.39) ; 3) PS4 : 138.9 points/day (-68.3% ; 0.34)
Last month : 1) PS4 : 438.7 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 397.5 points/day (0.91) ; 3) XBO : 247.9 points/day (0.57)
Last month NPD : 1) PS4 : 375k (1.00) ; 2) NS : 325k (0.87) ; 3) XBO : 240k (0.64)

PS : Numbers with the 1.3 multiplicator for XBO :

Overall : 1) NS : 413.2 points/day (+3.9% ; 1.00) ; 2) XBO : 208.5 points/day (0.50) ; 3) PS4 : 138.9 points/day (-68.3% ; 0.34)

 The fact that PS4 mostly had only one SKU in July is going to be a big problem for July. PS4 is going to be second, not third in July. Your method of prediction can only be consistent if the number of SKUs is roughly the same.

You'll have to take care of the problem soon or later.



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jason1637 on 08 August 2018
globalisateur said:
Symbios63 said:

July Summary :

Amazon : 1) NS : 313.1 points/day (+12.7%) ; 2) XBO : 119.5 points/day (+23.7%) ; 3) PS4 : 3.0 points/day (-28.6%)
Amazon last month : 1) NS : 277.8 points/day ; 2) XBO : 96.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 4.2 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 363.6 points/day (+9.5%) ; 2) XBO : 299.6 points/day (-28.8%) ; 3) PS4 : 241.9 points/day (-45.1%)
Best Buy last month : 1) PS4 : 440.4 points/day ; 2) XBO : 421.0 points/day ; 3) NS : 332.1 points/day
Gamestop : 1) NS : 90.0 points/day (-17.4%) ; 2) PS4 : 88.1 points/day (-74.6%) ; 3) XBO : 4.9 points/day (-94.3%)
Gamestop last month : 1) PS4 : 347.3 points/day ; 2) NS : 108.9 points/day ; 3) XBO : 86.5 points/day

Overall : 1) NS : 413.2 points/day (+3.9% ; 1.00) ; 2) XBO : 160.4 points/day (-35.3% ; 0.39) ; 3) PS4 : 138.9 points/day (-68.3% ; 0.34)
Last month : 1) PS4 : 438.7 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 397.5 points/day (0.91) ; 3) XBO : 247.9 points/day (0.57)
Last month NPD : 1) PS4 : 375k (1.00) ; 2) NS : 325k (0.87) ; 3) XBO : 240k (0.64)

PS : Numbers with the 1.3 multiplicator for XBO :

Overall : 1) NS : 413.2 points/day (+3.9% ; 1.00) ; 2) XBO : 208.5 points/day (0.50) ; 3) PS4 : 138.9 points/day (-68.3% ; 0.34)

 The fact that PS4 mostly had only one SKU in July is going to be a big problem for July. PS4 is going to be second, not third in July. Your method of prediction can only be consistent if the number of SKUs is roughly the same.

You'll have to take care of the problem soon or later.

We should wait for NPD to see if any changes need to be made. PS4 has been having shortages at retail and the XBO had a pretty strong prime day performance so PS4 could be third. 



pitzy272 on 08 August 2018
Symbios63 said:

July Summary :

Amazon : 1) NS : 313.1 points/day (+12.7%) ; 2) XBO : 119.5 points/day (+23.7%) ; 3) PS4 : 3.0 points/day (-28.6%)
Amazon last month : 1) NS : 277.8 points/day ; 2) XBO : 96.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 4.2 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 363.6 points/day (+9.5%) ; 2) XBO : 299.6 points/day (-28.8%) ; 3) PS4 : 241.9 points/day (-45.1%)
Best Buy last month : 1) PS4 : 440.4 points/day ; 2) XBO : 421.0 points/day ; 3) NS : 332.1 points/day
Gamestop : 1) NS : 90.0 points/day (-17.4%) ; 2) PS4 : 88.1 points/day (-74.6%) ; 3) XBO : 4.9 points/day (-94.3%)
Gamestop last month : 1) PS4 : 347.3 points/day ; 2) NS : 108.9 points/day ; 3) XBO : 86.5 points/day

Overall : 1) NS : 413.2 points/day (+3.9% ; 1.00) ; 2) XBO : 160.4 points/day (-35.3% ; 0.39) ; 3) PS4 : 138.9 points/day (-68.3% ; 0.34)
Last month : 1) PS4 : 438.7 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 397.5 points/day (0.91) ; 3) XBO : 247.9 points/day (0.57)
Last month NPD : 1) PS4 : 375k (1.00) ; 2) NS : 325k (0.87) ; 3) XBO : 240k (0.64)

PS : Numbers with the 1.3 multiplicator for XBO :

Overall : 1) NS : 413.2 points/day (+3.9% ; 1.00) ; 2) XBO : 208.5 points/day (0.50) ; 3) PS4 : 138.9 points/day (-68.3% ; 0.34)

@the July overall scores. I actually followed very little game news in July. Wtf? The marked change in PS4 performance was due exclusively to shortages? That’s a hell of a drop! 



duduspace1 on 08 August 2018
quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

Those are the winning numbers from the prediction thread on ResetEra.

XBO was up 100% YoY in terms of revenue but the X model being $500 and not available last year means that unit sales will be a good deal lower than 100%. If these numbers are close to accurate than thats a ~60% YoY increase in unit sales.

XBOX X was out sold by 30k by the ps4 pro in june, combined they represent 30% of ps4/xb sales. https://www.neogaf.com/threads/npd-sales-results-for-june-2018.1464314/page-3#post-253375959

I wouldn't look into those prediction  numbers so much, using the NPD info is much better.

Doesn't this suggest a possibility then that the Switch could have outsold the PS4 in terms of units or came much closer to it as the NPD tool originally suggested ?

I do believe it would have been mentioned if it sold more in terms of units to be honest.



zorg1000 on 08 August 2018
quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

Those are the winning numbers from the prediction thread on ResetEra.

XBO was up 100% YoY in terms of revenue but the X model being $500 and not available last year means that unit sales will be a good deal lower than 100%. If these numbers are close to accurate than thats a ~60% YoY increase in unit sales.

XBOX X was out sold by 30k by the ps4 pro in june, combined they represent 30% of ps4/xb sales. https://www.neogaf.com/threads/npd-sales-results-for-june-2018.1464314/page-3#post-253375959

I wouldn't look into those prediction  numbers so much, using the NPD info is much better.

What info are you speaking of?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

quickrick on 08 August 2018
zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

XBOX X was out sold by 30k by the ps4 pro in june, combined they represent 30% of ps4/xb sales. https://www.neogaf.com/threads/npd-sales-results-for-june-2018.1464314/page-3#post-253375959

I wouldn't look into those prediction  numbers so much, using the NPD info is much better.

What info are you speaking of?

XBOX nearly, up one 100%, switch up 50%, and ps4 up compared to last year.