In progress NPD predicting tool

[globalisateur]

Symbios63 said:

July Summary :

Amazon : 1) NS : 313.1 points/day (+12.7%) ; 2) XBO : 119.5 points/day (+23.7%) ; 3) PS4 : 3.0 points/day (-28.6%)
Amazon last month : 1) NS : 277.8 points/day ; 2) XBO : 96.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 4.2 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 363.6 points/day (+9.5%) ; 2) XBO : 299.6 points/day (-28.8%) ; 3) PS4 : 241.9 points/day (-45.1%)
Best Buy last month : 1) PS4 : 440.4 points/day ; 2) XBO : 421.0 points/day ; 3) NS : 332.1 points/day
Gamestop : 1) NS : 90.0 points/day (-17.4%) ; 2) PS4 : 88.1 points/day (-74.6%) ; 3) XBO : 4.9 points/day (-94.3%)
Gamestop last month : 1) PS4 : 347.3 points/day ; 2) NS : 108.9 points/day ; 3) XBO : 86.5 points/day

Overall : 1) NS : 413.2 points/day (+3.9% ; 1.00) ; 2) XBO : 160.4 points/day (-35.3% ; 0.39) ; 3) PS4 : 138.9 points/day (-68.3% ; 0.34)
Last month : 1) PS4 : 438.7 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 397.5 points/day (0.91) ; 3) XBO : 247.9 points/day (0.57)
Last month NPD : 1) PS4 : 375k (1.00) ; 2) NS : 325k (0.87) ; 3) XBO : 240k (0.64)

PS : Numbers with the 1.3 multiplicator for XBO :

Overall : 1) NS : 413.2 points/day (+3.9% ; 1.00) ; 2) XBO : 208.5 points/day (0.50) ; 3) PS4 : 138.9 points/day (-68.3% ; 0.34)

 The fact that PS4 mostly had only one SKU in July is going to be a big problem for July. PS4 is going to be second, not third in July. Your method of prediction can only be consistent if the number of SKUs is roughly the same.

You'll have to take care of the problem soon or later.