In progress NPD predicting tool

[jason1637]

globalisateur said:

Symbios63 said:

July Summary :

Amazon : 1) NS : 313.1 points/day (+12.7%) ; 2) XBO : 119.5 points/day (+23.7%) ; 3) PS4 : 3.0 points/day (-28.6%)
Amazon last month : 1) NS : 277.8 points/day ; 2) XBO : 96.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 4.2 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 363.6 points/day (+9.5%) ; 2) XBO : 299.6 points/day (-28.8%) ; 3) PS4 : 241.9 points/day (-45.1%)
Best Buy last month : 1) PS4 : 440.4 points/day ; 2) XBO : 421.0 points/day ; 3) NS : 332.1 points/day
Gamestop : 1) NS : 90.0 points/day (-17.4%) ; 2) PS4 : 88.1 points/day (-74.6%) ; 3) XBO : 4.9 points/day (-94.3%)
Gamestop last month : 1) PS4 : 347.3 points/day ; 2) NS : 108.9 points/day ; 3) XBO : 86.5 points/day

Overall : 1) NS : 413.2 points/day (+3.9% ; 1.00) ; 2) XBO : 160.4 points/day (-35.3% ; 0.39) ; 3) PS4 : 138.9 points/day (-68.3% ; 0.34)
Last month : 1) PS4 : 438.7 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 397.5 points/day (0.91) ; 3) XBO : 247.9 points/day (0.57)
Last month NPD : 1) PS4 : 375k (1.00) ; 2) NS : 325k (0.87) ; 3) XBO : 240k (0.64)

PS : Numbers with the 1.3 multiplicator for XBO :

Overall : 1) NS : 413.2 points/day (+3.9% ; 1.00) ; 2) XBO : 208.5 points/day (0.50) ; 3) PS4 : 138.9 points/day (-68.3% ; 0.34)

 The fact that PS4 mostly had only one SKU in July is going to be a big problem for July. PS4 is going to be second, not third in July. Your method of prediction can only be consistent if the number of SKUs is roughly the same.

You'll have to take care of the problem soon or later.

We should wait for NPD to see if any changes need to be made. PS4 has been having shortages at retail and the XBO had a pretty strong prime day performance so PS4 could be third.