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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Nintendo Switch dive in chart like ps4, maybe August is a xone month of reach the sky.



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Switch doing its best to finally fall off that cliff

Last edited by duduspace1 - on 31 July 2018

07/31/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 8 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 35 (-5) - 294.69$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 59 (-3) - 464.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 82 + 42 = 124 points (-13) ; NS : 175 + 102 = 277 points (+7) ; PS4 (September) : 0 point (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8 (+2) - 299.00$
4 (+4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 9 (+59) - 399.99$
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 11 (-) - 299.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 34 (-2) - 499.99$
7 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 37 (+1) - 499.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 76 (-32) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 points (-) ; XBO : 160 + 84 + 78 + 25 = 347 points (-41) ; NS : 205 + 175 = 380 points (+10) ; PS4 (September) : 170 points (+137)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 13 (-3)
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 104 (+5) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 105 (-14) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 48 points (-12) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS :49 points (+3) ; PS4 (September) : 180 points (-10)

Overall (Today) :

1 - NS : 346.6 points (+10.6) ; Month Average : 431.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 168.6 points (-18.6) ; Month Average : 162.9 points/day ; 0.38 (+0.01)
3 - PS4 : 90.0 points (-12.0) ; Month Average : 142.4 points/day ; 0.33 (-)



08/01/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 35 (-) - 294.69$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 64 (-5) - 464.00$
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 85 (R) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 16 points (+16) ; XBO : 82 + 37 = 119 points (-5) ; NS : 165 + 102 = 267 points (-10) ; PS4 (September) : 0 point (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 8 (+1) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 11 (-3) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 12 (-1) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 30 (+4) - 499.99$
7 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 33 (+4) - 499.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 78 (-2) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 points (-) ; XBO : 155 + 92 + 86 + 23 = 356 points (+9) ; NS : 205 + 160 = 365 points (-15) ; PS4 (September) : 175 points (+5)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 15 (-2)
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 122 (-18) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 127 (-22) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 37 points (-11) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS :40 points (-9) ; PS4 (September) : 175 points (-5)

Overall (Today) :

1 - NS : 326.6 points (-20.0) ; Month Average : 427.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 166.4 points (-2.2) ; Month Average : 163.0 points/day ; 0.38 (-)
3 - PS4 : 91.8 points (+1.8) ; Month Average : 140.4 points/day ; 0.33 (-)



June NPD is later today. Hope we get lraks.



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Well, no hard numbers from NPD so far.

From what I understood, the ranking from the tool seems ok once again but the ratios might be off (I hope we will get a leak later so we can have a better idea).

I mean, if NS/PS4 real ratio is 0.8 (instead of 0.92 from the tool), I would consider it totally OK (expecting 100% accuracy would be ridiculous anyway). The only recurring problem the tool has for sure is underestimation of XBO. I will have to look into a solution to reduce this.

The real test will be July where the tool has NS winning by far.



How accurate has the tool been so far?

In terms of predicting the #1 #2 and #3 and not ratios.



It's been correct each month I believe. The ratios have also been more or less spot on too except from this month.



Maybe you should track the NES classic to see how that would do also? From what I can gather this month though xbox had a lot if in store buyers.



Mbolibombo said:
How accurate has the tool been so far?

In terms of predicting the #1 #2 and #3 and not ratios.

You can find this info in the OP. 

April : 

Tool result : 1) PS4 : 716.6 points/day (1.0) ; 2) NS : 359.3 points/day (0.50) ; 3) XBO : 242.8 points/day (0.34)
NPD Results : 1) PS4 : 326k (1.0) ; 2) NS : 171k (0.52) ; 3) XBO : 134k (0.41)

 

May : 

Tool result : 1) PS4 : 512.7 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 388.1 points/day (0.76) ; 3) XBO : 217.0 points/day (0.42)
NPD Results : PS4 : 223k (1.0) ; NS : 167k (0.75) ; XBO : 145k (0.65)

 

June : 

Tool result : 1) PS4 : 438.7 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 397.5 points/day (0.91) ; 3) XBO : 247.9 points/day (0.57)

NPD Results : ? but XBO is probably too low while NS might be a bit too high... I hope we will get numbers soon.