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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

duduspace1 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
August 21st can't come soon enough, those numbers for PS4 are just crazy bad. It's as if everyone who still wanted a PS4 did so with the Days of Play and no nobody would be left to buy the console...

Yeah, although I think its also partly because the PS4 is starting to show its age, to be honest after the Switch became as widely accepted as it is, the PS4 had to feel the heat at some point. Some expected it to happen earlier but the PS4 defied all such expectations till now. Perhaps that is now starting to happen, although I am certain that does not completely explain what seems to be such an abrupt drop that it might indeed be termed Falling off a cliff. The future will reveal what is actually happening in form of NPD results.

Yea we should wait till NPD we had the samething happen with amazon tool, maybe its falling of a cliff based on the tool, but in NPD it will be fine, just look at xbox results last month, it looked it was falling off a cliff but it was close to switch.



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nemo37 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
August 21st can't come soon enough, those numbers for PS4 are just crazy bad. It's as if everyone who still wanted a PS4 did so with the Days of Play and no nobody would be left to buy the console...

I think PS4 Pro upgrades contribute a significant amount to the PS4’s sales right now. The Pro model is currently sold out in all of the online stores tracked here. However, it is still available in many of the brick and mortar Best Buy and GameStop stores, so I suspect overall PS4 sales may be undertracked by the tool right now (since it only looks at online sources).

Yeah, I posted before that the Pro and One X both are getting an evergrowing part of the sales of their respective consoles.

Not sure if the Gamestop isn't tracking the sales of all their shops combined or not - at least I thought it does. If just Target and Walmart would have good and regularly update videogame sales charts like the other 3 (well, 2 of the 3 at least) do, we would have a clearer picture. However, Nowinstock has just the one at Gamestop in stock, either - apart from a scalped Arkham Knight LE for almost 500 bucks: https://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/ps4/

There it's also visible that it's not just in the US, though because most countries are only represented by Amazon there it's a bit hard to judge those. But some like Canada, UK and Mexico have other shops and those also seem to be short on stocks.

Same is also true for the XBO S it seems, as it only shows availability in the Microsoft store, and sold out in Canada, UK and Germany. The ONE X, on the other hand, seems much more available - but is also tracked at a higher variety of shops. Still, it can be bought at places the S model is shown as sold out, so probably the X is the only option next to the Switch in many cases.

duduspace1 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
August 21st can't come soon enough, those numbers for PS4 are just crazy bad. It's as if everyone who still wanted a PS4 did so with the Days of Play and no nobody would be left to buy the console...

Yeah, although I think its also partly because the PS4 is starting to show its age, to be honest after the Switch became as widely accepted as it is, the PS4 had to feel the heat at some point. Some expected it to happen earlier but the PS4 defied all such expectations till now. Perhaps that is now starting to happen, although I am certain that does not completely explain what seems to be such an abrupt drop that it might indeed be termed Falling off a cliff. The future will reveal what is actually happening in form of NPD results.

Partially, yes, but nothing near as huge or abrupt as it happened here now. As explained above, it looks like there's starting to be some more or less serious stock issues



Bofferbrauer2 said:
nemo37 said:

I think PS4 Pro upgrades contribute a significant amount to the PS4’s sales right now. The Pro model is currently sold out in all of the online stores tracked here. However, it is still available in many of the brick and mortar Best Buy and GameStop stores, so I suspect overall PS4 sales may be undertracked by the tool right now (since it only looks at online sources).

Yeah, I posted before that the Pro and One X both are getting an evergrowing part of the sales of their respective consoles.

Not sure if the Gamestop isn't tracking the sales of all their shops combined or not - at least I thought it does. If just Target and Walmart would have good and regularly update videogame sales charts like the other 3 (well, 2 of the 3 at least) do, we would have a clearer picture. However, Nowinstock has just the one at Gamestop in stock, either - apart from a scalped Arkham Knight LE for almost 500 bucks: https://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/ps4/

There it's also visible that it's not just in the US, though because most countries are only represented by Amazon there it's a bit hard to judge those. But some like Canada, UK and Mexico have other shops and those also seem to be short on stocks.

Same is also true for the XBO S it seems, as it only shows availability in the Microsoft store, and sold out in Canada, UK and Germany. The ONE X, on the other hand, seems much more available - but is also tracked at a higher variety of shops. Still, it can be bought at places the S model is shown as sold out, so probably the X is the only option next to the Switch in many cases.

duduspace1 said:

Yeah, although I think its also partly because the PS4 is starting to show its age, to be honest after the Switch became as widely accepted as it is, the PS4 had to feel the heat at some point. Some expected it to happen earlier but the PS4 defied all such expectations till now. Perhaps that is now starting to happen, although I am certain that does not completely explain what seems to be such an abrupt drop that it might indeed be termed Falling off a cliff. The future will reveal what is actually happening in form of NPD results.

Partially, yes, but nothing near as huge or abrupt as it happened here now. As explained above, it looks like there's starting to be some more or less serious stock issues

Perhaps something similar to what happened in Japan earlier is starting to happen worldwide. I did say at the time that I thought the scarcity was due to Sony having to reconsider their allocation of manufacturing resources between the Pro and legacy PS4 SKUs.

It is very possible that there is a glut of legacy PS4 SKUs but a scarcity of Pro SKUs for those making the leap to 4K which would fit a significant portion of the PS4 userbase mostly enamoured by the eyecandy of high end graphics.



Sony report's for fy is send 16 mi ps4 to world, compared to last year, 19 mi or 20 min, it's a substantial number of consoles decrease. Maybe the effects already start to hit market.



gemini_d@rk said:

Sony report's for fy is send 16 mi ps4 to world, compared to last year, 19 mi or 20 min, it's a substantial number of consoles decrease. Maybe the effects already start to hit market.

This would have very little to do with the NPD predicting tool, and more to do with europe and ROTW,  shipping numbers in 2 weeks will give us a great indication of whats going on. 



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I'm not too concerned right now, PS4 does have its drops from time to time and some people still have "Doom" at the ready. It's bloody boiling in the UK right now and if its the same elsewhere I can see why the Xbox and PS4 are not that high. It's also true that June/July are dead months generally for games, so really it would make sense if Sony is messing around with stock or new products they do it now rather than later.

If its still like this when August/September hits (when the games start to flow and hopefully the heat has died down), then perhaps something else is happening.



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

Madword said:
I'm not too concerned right now, PS4 does have its drops from time to time and some people still have "Doom" at the ready. It's bloody boiling in the UK right now and if its the same elsewhere I can see why the Xbox and PS4 are not that high. It's also true that June/July are dead months generally for games, so really it would make sense if Sony is messing around with stock or new products they do it now rather than later.

If its still like this when August/September hits (when the games start to flow and hopefully the heat has died down), then perhaps something else is happening.

yea it s funny, you would think these people could at least wait till  real official numbers out .



@Symbios63 Do you have a spreadsheet of all the daily point values? I think it would be cool to compare the weekly point ratios to what VGChartz has for each week.



quickrick said:
Madword said:
I'm not too concerned right now, PS4 does have its drops from time to time and some people still have "Doom" at the ready. It's bloody boiling in the UK right now and if its the same elsewhere I can see why the Xbox and PS4 are not that high. It's also true that June/July are dead months generally for games, so really it would make sense if Sony is messing around with stock or new products they do it now rather than later.

If its still like this when August/September hits (when the games start to flow and hopefully the heat has died down), then perhaps something else is happening.

yea it s funny, you would think these people could at least wait till  real official numbers out .

You're one to talk, Mr "Fall off a cliff"



StarDoor said:
@Symbios63 Do you have a spreadsheet of all the daily point values? I think it would be cool to compare the weekly point ratios to what VGChartz has for each week.

I do have one (there would be no graph otherwise...). The comparison might indeed be interesting. I can share the spreadsheet if you are willing to do it.