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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Bofferbrauer2 said:
jason1637 said:
According to Benji Switch should do above 2m
Xbox above 1m
PS4 below 1m.

How much did they do last year?

Also, less than a million for PS4 in December sounds pretty bad

Last year they sold,

NSW - 1.5m  
XBO - 1365k 
PS4 - 1080k .

But PS4 had no official deals in December 2017 and 2018.



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jason1637 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

How much did they do last year?

Also, less than a million for PS4 in December sounds pretty bad

Last year they sold,

NSW - 1.5m  
XBO - 1365k 
PS4 - 1080k .

But PS4 had no official deals in December 2017 and 2018.

Still, if you add November + December then you'll probably end up with the PS4 being dead last this year (and selling less than last year in that period, which was already seen as disappointing), potentially by quite some margin even.

The fact that the discounted PS4 deal was selling out so fast and that the sales tanked (comparatively speaking) afterwards also shows that a pricecut is getting necessary. I fear weekly PS4 sales will drop this year to around 140-150k instead of 180-200k we generally had in 2018.



jason1637 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

How much did they do last year?

Also, less than a million for PS4 in December sounds pretty bad

Last year they sold,

NSW - 1.5m  
XBO - 1365k 
PS4 - 1080k .

But PS4 had no official deals in December 2017 and 2018.

PS4 had official deals last December, PS4 Pro was $50 off in the 2nd week and Slim was $50 off in the 3rd week.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Bofferbrauer2 said:
jason1637 said:
According to Benji Switch should do above 2m
Xbox above 1m
PS4 below 1m.

How much did they do last year?

Also, less than a million for PS4 in December sounds pretty bad

It sounds in line with the trend that PS4 is down 10% yoy.

Last December PS4 did 1.08m. 10% down would mean the PS4 is going to do 972,000 this December.



01/02/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (+1) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 19 (+2) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 54 (+9) - 299.95$
4 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 93 (R) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V Bundle - 87 (+12) - 249.99$

PS4 : 47 + 8 = 55 points (+17) ; XBO : 0 point (-14) ; NS : 165 + 120 = 285 points (+15)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 4 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 9 (+1) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 11 (-2) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 32 (-7) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 65 (-4) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 68 (-1) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 170 + 160 + 36 = 366 points (-9) ; XBO : 88 + 33 = 121 points (-15) ; NS : 205 + 195 = 400 points (-5)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 26 (-)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 37 (+2)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 79 (-12)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 120 points (+5) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 150 + 72 = 222 points (-12)

Overall :

1 - NS : 530.0 points (-1.0) ; Month Average : 645.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 (-) - XBO : 31.5 points (-18.4) ; Month Average : 492.6 points/day ; 0.76 (-0.02)
3 (-) - PS4 : 237.2 points (+16.8) ; Month Average : 359.0 points/day ; 0.56 (-)



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31.5 points for xbox. Thats really low.



Replicant said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

How much did they do last year?

Also, less than a million for PS4 in December sounds pretty bad

It sounds in line with the trend that PS4 is down 10% yoy.

Last December PS4 did 1.08m. 10% down would mean the PS4 is going to do 972,000 this December.

Wasn't December last year only 4 weeks? I remember that January was 5 weeks this year, so selling less despite having an additional week would be pretty bad and actually a worse downward trend than "just" 10%



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Replicant said:

It sounds in line with the trend that PS4 is down 10% yoy.

Last December PS4 did 1.08m. 10% down would mean the PS4 is going to do 972,000 this December.

Wasn't December last year only 4 weeks? I remember that January was 5 weeks this year, so selling less despite having an additional week would be pretty bad and actually a worse downward trend than "just" 10%

NPD December is always 5 weeks.

In 2017, it covered the 5 weeks running from November 26 to December 30 and it included Cyber Monday sales.

In 2018, it doesn't include Cyber Monday so PS4 should definitely follow the yoy trend and be down at least 10%.

 

Edit: Here's Mat Piscatella's tweet. NPD December in 2018 covers the 5 weeks running from December 2 to January 5.

Last edited by Replicant - on 03 January 2019

Replicant said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Wasn't December last year only 4 weeks? I remember that January was 5 weeks this year, so selling less despite having an additional week would be pretty bad and actually a worse downward trend than "just" 10%

NPD December is always 5 weeks.

In 2017, it covered the 5 weeks running from November 26 to December 30 and it included Cyber Monday sales.

In 2018, it doesn't include Cyber Monday so PS4 should definitely follow the yoy trend and be down at least 10%.

 

Edit: Here's Mat Piscatella's tweet. NPD December in 2018 covers the 5 weeks running from December 2 to January 5.

I know about this year, I was just confused because January was also a weeks month this year and it sounded illogical to have two 5-week months back-to-back.



01/03/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (-) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 21 (-2) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 55 (-1) - 299.95$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 87 (+6) - 399.99$
5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 94 (R) - 235.00$
6 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V Bundle - 98 (R) - 250.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 46 + 14 = 60 points (+5) ; XBO : 7 + 3 = 10 points (+10) ; NS : 165 + 110 = 275 points (-10)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 4 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 8 (+1) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 9 (+2) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 38 (-6) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 61 (+4) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 81 (-13) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 175 + 170 + 40 = 385 points (+19) ; XBO : 76 + 20 = 96 points (-25) ; NS : 205 + 195 = 400 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 16 (+10)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 28 (+9)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 69 (+10)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 145 points (+25) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 175 + 82 = 257 points (+35)

Overall :

1 - NS : 557.0 points (+27.0) ; Month Average : 643.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 (-) - XBO : 35.4 points (+3.9) ; Month Average : 478.7 points/day ; 0.74 (-0.02)
3 (-) - PS4 : 270.0 points (+32.8) ; Month Average : 356.3 points/day ; 0.55 (-0.01)