Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

The problem with Microsoft's deal is everybody and their dog knows an $100 or added value deal is probably days away. None of them seem to be trying hard these holidays. The Spider-Man and Switch with game bundles were both quite good for a short period, but it wouldn't surprise me if combined sales of all 3 was down or flat. I hope I'm wrong.



Around the Network
PortisheadBiscuit said:
$50 off Xbox still not phasing Sony and Nintendo

They already severely blew their shot last november, don't expect much here.

Jaxyfoo said:
The problem with Microsoft's deal is everybody and their dog knows an $100 or added value deal is probably days away. None of them seem to be trying hard these holidays. The Spider-Man and Switch with game bundles were both quite good for a short period, but it wouldn't surprise me if combined sales of all 3 was down or flat. I hope I'm wrong.

Except Nintendo tried nothing last year and only had Xenoblade 2 in december while  this year there are still fresh out of Pokémon and Smash's coming to greet us. 

Edit :

Combined sales of all 3 ? Oh yeah, maybe.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

PortisheadBiscuit said:
$50 off Xbox still not phasing Sony and Nintendo

Whoops, fazing* 



Jaxyfoo said:
The problem with Microsoft's deal is everybody and their dog knows an $100 or added value deal is probably days away. None of them seem to be trying hard these holidays. The Spider-Man and Switch with game bundles were both quite good for a short period, but it wouldn't surprise me if combined sales of all 3 was down or flat. I hope I'm wrong.

Since XB1 and PS4 have been up YoY all year, they probably met their shipment goals sufficiently. It is hard to all of a sudden demand more to be manufactured, so MS and Sony seem to be in no hurry to have a fire sale. For Switch, I think Nintendo expects Smash to do the heavy lifting late December and through the next quarter.



Jaxyfoo said:
The problem with Microsoft's deal is everybody and their dog knows an $100 or added value deal is probably days away. None of them seem to be trying hard these holidays. The Spider-Man and Switch with game bundles were both quite good for a short period, but it wouldn't surprise me if combined sales of all 3 was down or flat. I hope I'm wrong.

There is $100 off the XBX currently. Nobody has noticed though cause since october it has being the unofficial MSRP of the XBX...



Around the Network
globalisateur said:
Jaxyfoo said:
The problem with Microsoft's deal is everybody and their dog knows an $100 or added value deal is probably days away. None of them seem to be trying hard these holidays. The Spider-Man and Switch with game bundles were both quite good for a short period, but it wouldn't surprise me if combined sales of all 3 was down or flat. I hope I'm wrong.

There is $100 off the XBX currently. Nobody has noticed though cause since october it has being the unofficial MSRP of the XBX...

This is like those stores that have permanent sales, or go from spring sales to summer.  As soon as people see what is happening, they stop going because of the sale and just go to check when they need something.  There's stops being a shock factor and that Wow what a great deal, must buy that before the deal ends.l

just to clarify I am thinking Nintendo will be up, but the other two combined will be down in a way that makes it pretty flat.  It's not a bad thing, last year's sales were fantastic, and we are in a later year with no X launch to inflate the numbers.

I just prefer to talk combined till we see numbers, otherwise it is a never-ending circle of being attacked for not matching up with other people's imaginary numbers.

 



12/06/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 22 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 40 (-11) - 299.90$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 49 (+3) - 240.05$
5 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 63 (+30) - 249.00$
6 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 66 (+4) - 399.00$
7 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 79 (R) - 299.99$
8 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 97 (-3) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (R) - XBox One S Battlefield V - 92 (R) - 249.99$

PS4 : 72 + 22 + 4 = 98 points (-3) ; XBO : 54 + 38 + 35 = 127 point (+39) ; NS : 205 + 108 = 313 points (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 3 (+1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 8 (-1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 9 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 16 (+1) - 249.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 38 (-8) - 399.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 60 (-9) - 449.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 66 (-11) - 249.99$
9 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 78 (-14) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 175 = 375 points (-) ; XBO : 135 + 76 + 41 + 35 + 23 = 310 points (-45) ; NS : 205 + 170 = 375 points (+5)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 2 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 10 (+2)
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 39 (-5)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 48 (-)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 133 (-27)
6 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 172 (R)
7 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 187 (R)
8 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V Bundle - 199 (-36)

Out of Top 100 :

7 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 176 (R)

PS4 : 115 + 104 + 15 = 234 points (-) ; XBO : 7 + 1 = 8 points (-24) ; NS : 210 + 190 + 34 = 434 points (-9)

Overall :

1 - NS : 759.4 points (-8.0) ; Month Average : 739.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 387.4 points (-2.4) ; Month Average : 409.6 points/day ; 0.55 (-0.02)
3 - XBO : 223.1 points (-2.3) ; Month Average : 173.1 points/day ; 0.23 (+0.01)



Symbios63 said:
Intrinsic said:
So this tool has the NS coming first and PS4 coming second right?

First time I have come into this thread.

Out of curiosity....... how many times has this tool been wrong?

For beginning of December yes, the tool has NS first and PS4 second.

Read the OP to have an idea of the tool accuracy but you have keep in mind that it was dead wrong for October (not yet in the OP) and will (very likely) be for November as well.

I will try to adjust the formula for holyday season in the future.

I am more confident for December.

I still feel that if the Switch takes November, there would be no need to tweak it as it would mean it was just a problem with the time period the Smash and Pokemon Pre-Orders counted for.



12/07/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 4 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 (-3) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 45 (-5) - 299.98$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 48 (+1) - 239.00$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 57 (+6) - 249.00$
6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 64 (+15) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 66 (+4) - 399.00$
8 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 97 (-3) - 399.99$

PS4 : 62 + 37 = 99 points (+1) ; XBO : 56 + 44 = 100 points (-27) ; NS : 195 + 102 = 297 points (-16)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 3 (-) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 10 (-1) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 14 (-6) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 21 (-5) - 249.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 44 (-6) - 399.99$
7 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 67 (+11) - 249.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 69 (-3) - 249.99$
9 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 73 (-13) - 449.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 145 = 345 points (-30) ; XBO : 110 + 64 + 34 + 32 + 28 = 268 points (-42) ; NS : 205 + 165 = 370 points (-5)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 2 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 9 (+1)
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 37 (+2)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 41 (+7)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 124 (+9)
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 138 (+34)
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 156 (+31)

Out of Top 100 :

8 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V Bundle - 199 (-36)

PS4 : 120 + 110 + 32 = 262 points (+28) ; XBO : 23 points (+15) ; NS : 210 + 190 + 39 = 439 points (+5)

Overall :

1 - NS : 750.6 points (-8.8) ; Month Average : 741.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 410.2 points (+22.8) ; Month Average : 409.7 points/day ; 0.55 (-)
3 - XBO : 203.6 points (-19.5) ; Month Average : 178.2 points/day ; 0.24 (+0.01)



Can't wait to see first reports about how Smash and Switch are selling - and how November went