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Forums - Politics Discussion - Italian election results

mutantsushi said:
DarthMetalliCube said:

Hmmm, interesting stuff. I feel as a (mostly) Italian American I should know more about their political system/parties, but I've realized I know next to nothing until reading this lol.

Interesting to see what sounds like yet another Trump/Brexit/Le Penn right wing populist situation popping up. I think a lot of it is just the natural swinging of the pendulum in a backlash to liberal/neoliberal politics that have dominated much of the West more or less for several decades, along with the increase of immigration spurring a greater increase of this.

Speaking as one myself, (US)Americans are just blatantly ignorant about anything political, internationally or otherwise.

Oh believe me I know ha. The amount of bs that many of my fellow Americans believe (much of which is mainstream media fed propaganda), or how little they know about what's going on outside their bubble just blows my mind sometimes - and I'll be the first to admit, this is coming from someone who is not particularly too knowledgeable about many aspects of politics myself, particularly international. But as someone who got a degree in history, it's also quite concerning how little we Americans know about our own history, and especially that of other countries.

We're just too coddled over here, lost in our gadgets and such, that there's really little need to pay attention to much. A lot of us are just too spoiled, and those that AREN'T well off often seem to miss the point as to why they aren't, instead resorting to scapegoating, most of which completely misses the mark.. I think the Ron Paul, and to an certain extent the Bernie phenomena were the closest we got to understanding more of the real/big picture, though these phases were unfortunately short lived and we've sort of regressed back into childish yelling and demonizing eachother and this primitive tribalism of identity politics. You're either a Hillary supporter who thinks Facism is making a comeback along with some unproven conspiracy by those big bad Russians, and that evil white men are inherently privileged and are depriving poor minorities of wealth and opportunities somehow, OR you're a Trumper who believes there's a socialist/communist uprising or globalist takeover coming that threatens to dismantle our glorious country and that them damn immigrants and foreigners are takin' er jobs! The sensible middle (along with Libertarian leaning folks which I consider myself) are increasingly being drowned out.

I'm noticing a very concerning sort of anti-intellectual streak on the rise here, where we're increasingly rejecting critical thinking and individualism, instead taking everything at face value and pigeonholing everything into "this group" vs "that group." And this applies to many circles within the left AND the right, so I'm not singling out one side over the other here, though the left certainly seems to be the most prominent in being guilty of this here as of late..

Hmm, that went on a tangent somewhat that veered from the subject of your response more than I intended, but had to vent I guess haha..



 

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mutantsushi said:

I think it's telling the self-described PD supporter (Luke888) calls them "the left" while simultaneously calling them center-right.
"let's pretend and call things by something else than it really is because it makes it easier to rationalize buying into status quo"
sums up election for PD, and why nobody trusts them because... obviously. (not attacking Luke888 here, honesty is good)

With Renzi quitting (who opposed M5S coalition, and facilitated consolidation of PD into liberal center-right vehicle more
comfortable with Macron's En Marche and Spain's Ciudadanos, precipitating exit from PD of "real" center-left socialists)
that leaves M5S + PD coalition as most likely outcome by what I understand, exactly what M5S' Di Maio openly called for.
I wonder if this post-Renzi PD would change enough to bring back the anti-Renzi dissidents who found their way to LeU.

I recall reading interview with center-right supporter who shifted from supporting FI to voting for PD solely because of
dislike for Lega (and probably their overt fascist electoral allies), which makes PD's poor showing all the more spectacular,
if even with support from that sector one could consider that guy representative of, they still had horrible end result.
Which is really the norm for liberal center-right, there is no significant popular base for it, and cases of their popularity
like Spain's Ciudadanos swing on tangential issues (Catalonia, anti-corruption sentiment vs PP while C's never in power),
or of course, to use the famous comparison, the Nazis' own leverage of nationalist hate to cover for privatization policy.

Then it's hilarious to see all the non-Italian "Atlantic Council" crowd get hyped over "Russia" angle while
Italians across political spectrum largely couldn't care less and would prefer constructive friendly relations.
Of course, de facto, Italian governments have caved in to support Russia sanctions, just as they caved in to
allow NATO to bomb and overthrow Libya using Italian territory, despite good Italian relations with Qadafi,
and the obviously apparent negative repurcussions Italy has felt since the war (likewise for NATO war vs Syria).

Meanwhile we get standard "Russia backs far-right" BS ignoring how happy NATO is to deal with far-right
whether in Baltics, Ukraine or Bulgaria where government includes fascists solely to keep out "pro-Russia" socialists.
(same fascists previously cast as "pro-Russia" in NATO-strong circles, but when they're useful, no complaints)
Of course same circles tended to complain of things like good relations of Schroder (German SPD) with Russia,
which is as mainstream center-left as you can get, almost like they make up scare propaganda to suit their needs.

Anyways, while thread is on Italy, is there any chance they get the EU Medicine Agency returned to Milan?
Seems to me if Dutch aren't compliant by a certain date leading up to Brexit deadline, it seems reasonable
Milan be substituted, being as it equally reached final round (only losing by coin-toss) and fulfills all needs 100%.

Welcome to "why I couldn't care less what Atlanticists say. They are basically a Third World neocolonialist movement at this point... 



Epic was right all along... 

So this gets to what I was discussing.
Arcane research paper (http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0116046#s2) but here is what it shows...
Closest correlation in voting between M5S and SEL which includes PD "dissidents". (close correlation of PD/FI reflecting their coalition government, FI own center-right dissidents Alternativa Popolare now Civica Popolare formally within PD electoral bloc)


So re-inclusion of PD-dissidents now component in SEL would not hugely shift policy of M5S-PD coalition as
M5S already votes closest to SEL, while re-integrating those dissidents would re-enforce PD weight in coalition.
(and increase the persuasion of their political stance to M5S, re: negotiations for policy)
Charts unfortunately don't distinguish ex-PD dissidents from other components of SEL.
OFC besides not being necessary for majority, that runs contra to maintenance of Renzi policy without Renzi.

In other news, Lega announced openness to M5S coalition which is other majority scenario if PD refuses.

Last edited by mutantsushi - on 17 March 2018

Five Starts leader Di Maio announced agreement with Lega for earliest possible elections on July 8,
refusing technical or all-party government which would govern while delaying elections to December or later.
http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2018/05/07/july-8-election-if-no-govt-deal-2_1c4c9a15-c996-4844-9d86-e89dea43be82.html
The earliest possible election IMHO implies likelyhood of not modifying election laws, which was theory mentioned by some here.

Acting leader Martina of centrist Democratic party has pushed for negotiations with Five Stars,
albeit has been rebuffed so far by Renzi wing of party, thus forced to forswear that option before new elections.
https://www.politico.eu/article/italys-politicians-5star-movement-democratic-party-get-one-last-chance-to-strike-a-deal/
But fact he became leader at all despite his distance on this issue (which was apparent immediately after election)
suggests the policy on non-cooperation with Five Stars is less fixed than Renzi would prefer to have it.

In relation to previous post with graph, I think interesting point is that NCD/AP (ex-Forza who allied with PD)
could be seen as exemplar of those in PD who would most oppose cooperation with Five Stars, based on voting pattern.
Of course, AP collapsed and 2/3 of it ended up within Forza-Lega coalition, so perhaps problematic as core of PD policy.

Last edited by mutantsushi - on 08 May 2018

I tried to post earlier, but the site wouldn't let me... trying again now...

Earlier, Berluconi announced Forza would accept a Lega coalition with Five Stars,
although they wouldn't vote for it their votes aren't needed to do so AFAIK.
A Five Star-Lega government may rely on other parties for judicial appointments etc. (?)

Berlusconi just won a court ruling saying he should now be allowed to run for office.
Although if the coalition government goes thru, there may not be elections soon.
The ruling could also be appealed and possibly reversed, who knows.



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I guess they have a government now? 5-Stars and Lega formed a coalition.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/967715/Italy-latest-Lega-and-Five-Star-agree-coalition-deal

GIUSEPPE Conte has accepted the role of Italian Prime Minister after the country's populist parties finally agreed a coalition deal.