Amazon U.S. February bestsellers and general Amazon-based discussion

xMetroid

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xMetroid on 03 February 2018

Mario back at #3 holy moly.

And btw, no one says the ratio from amazon is a prophecy but if a console is leading by a lot, it has good chances of winning and it turned out true most times. Maybe Switch is a little stronger than other consoles on amazon but when it's like in January and it's far on top, it shouldn't have trouble winning overall.

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tbone51 on 03 February 2018

xMetroid said:

Mario back at #3 holy moly.

And btw, no one says the ratio from amazon is a prophecy but if a console is leading by a lot, it has good chances of winning and it turned out true most times. Maybe Switch is a little stronger than other consoles on amazon but when it's like in January and it's far on top, it shouldn't have trouble winning overall.

Only nov and dec are hard to tell

SWORDF1SH

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SWORDF1SH on 03 February 2018

PortisheadBiscuit said:

Interesting pattern to note however, when both Switch skus are above the highest PS4 sku for the month on Amazon, Switch wins NPD (see Aug, Sept, Oct). So I wouldn't say Amazon is totally useless, and can be used as barometer in a way.

Amazon is a very good indicator of how well hardware sales are doing. We just might need to apply some diversity to it going forward especially when rankings for each console are close.

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newwil7l on 03 February 2018

SWORDF1SH said:

newwil7l said:

Every month Switch has led on Amazon it has won NPD. Switch did not win November on Amazon despite this so called un predicted ratio. On top of that November is a largely retail driven month not an online one.

Bolded - Not true. Anyway that doesn't matter.

October

Amazon:

PS4 - 71st
NSW - 7th 8th 9th
XB1 - -

NPD:

PS4 - 205k
NSW - 300k
XB1 - 130k

Note: 3 Switch consoles above the PS4 way up the charts. Even if the PS4 was at 10th, it should translate into a 3:1 ratio in favour of the Switch... it's not.

September

Amazon:

PS4 - 47th 65th 68th
NSW - 15th 32nd
XB1 - -

NPD:

PS4 - 305k
NSW - 308k
XB1 - 175k

Note: 2 Switch consoles way ahead of the PS4 and yet the month ended virtually in a tie

August

Amazon:

PS4 - 26th 60th
NSW - 13th 21st
XB1 - 52nd 93rd

NPD:

PS4 - 190k
NSW - 215k
XB1 - 116k

Note: Switch has 2 consoles above PS4 with one PS4 console ranking way down the charts at 60th but only translates into a 25k lead

July

Amazon:

PS4 - 4th 82nd
NSW - 7th 9th
XB1 - 6th 63rd

NPD:

PS4 - 217k
NSW - 222k
XB1 - -

PS4 had one console in the top 10 with one way way down the charts at 82nd. Switch had 2 in the top 10 but still ended in very close.

June

Amazon:

PS4 - 19th 30th 58th 98th
NSW - 22nd 55th
XB1 - -

NPD:

PS4 - 381k
NSW - 215k
XB1 - 153k

Note: Probably well represented this month

May

Amazon:

PS4 - 13th 72nd 92nd
NSW - 12th 17th
XB1 -

NPD:

PS4 - 187k
NSW - 165k
XB1 - 109k

Note: Could be seen as a Switch win but PS4 takes it.

Of course these numbers can be interpreted in different ways but to me Amazon over-represents the Switch. It also seems that the offset of Switch sales leaning towards Amazon increase over the months.

You proved nothing. I never said anything about ratios. Just rankings.

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SWORDF1SH on 03 February 2018

xMetroid said:

Mario back at #3 holy moly.

And btw, no one says the ratio from amazon is a prophecy but if a console is leading by a lot, it has good chances of winning and it turned out true most times. Maybe Switch is a little stronger than other consoles on amazon but when it's like in January and it's far on top, it shouldn't have trouble winning overall.

You are exactly right. Switch will easily win January in my opinion. I've already predicted a healthy result.

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SWORDF1SH on 03 February 2018

newwil7l said:

You proved nothing. I never said anything about ratios. Just rankings.

Following the conversation back and where it all started, you disagreed with my theory that Switch sales are offset in its favour on amazon. I just tried to provide some data to back up my theory.

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barneystinson69 on 03 February 2018

p0isonparadise said:
14 hours since last update.

HARDWARE:
#14 NS Grey (down 1)
#15 NS Neon (same)
#27 PS4 Fool's Edition (same)
#33 SNES Classic (down 3)
#64 XB1X (down 9)
#71 PS4 Pro (down 11)
#76 XB1 (up 6)
#80 XB1 Forza (down 4)

SOFTWARE (Pre-orders Only)**:
#03 PS4 Shadow of the Colossus (down 1)
#10 NS Bayonetta 2 + 1 (down 1)

Does not affect this month: *
Software outside of the month only gets added if it's in the top 20: **

PS4: 2 in the top 100 / 1 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5
XB1: 3 in the top 100 / 0 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5
NIS: 2 in the top 100 / 2 in the top 50 / 2 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5

How is the Xbox One X in the 90s and the regular SKU's in the 50's within just a few hours? Price cut perhaps?

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SWORDF1SH on 03 February 2018

barneystinson69 said:

How is the Xbox One X in the 90s and the regular SKU's in the 50's within just a few hours? Price cut perhaps?

Looks like Xbox One is back down to 199

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p0isonparadise on 03 February 2018

6 hours since last update.

HARDWARE:
#14 NS Neon (up 1)
#16 NS Grey (down 2)
#31 PS4 Fool's Edition (down 4)
#33 SNES Classic (same)
#36 XB1 (up 40)
#42 XB1 Forza (up 38)
#79 PS4 Pro (down 8)
#82 XB1X (down 18)

SOFTWARE (Pre-orders Only)**:
#04 PS4 Shadow of the Colossus (down 1)
#10 NS Bayonetta 2 + 1 (same)

Does not affect this month: *
Software outside of the month only gets added if it's in the top 20: **

PS4: 2 in the top 100 / 1 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5
XB1: 3 in the top 100 / 2 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5
NIS: 2 in the top 100 / 2 in the top 50 / 2 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5

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palou on 03 February 2018

SWORDF1SH said:

newwil7l said:

Every month Switch has led on Amazon it has won NPD. Switch did not win November on Amazon despite this so called un predicted ratio. On top of that November is a largely retail driven month not an online one.

Of course these numbers can be interpreted in different ways but to me Amazon over-represents the Switch. It also seems that the offset of Switch sales leaning towards Amazon increase over the months.

Of course, Amazon is not a precise measure. There are a number of factors which may have an impact on the ratio. These can be predicted as well, however, and I believe that Amazon remains very much relevant data to analyze.

For example, November, despite it being close on Amazon, the Switch was far behind - because Black Friday deals predictably resulted in higher retail store sales for PS4 and Xbox.

I think, over time, the value of the data we receive from Amazon will, in fact, *increase* - early switch sales fairly directly described how many systems a respective retailer got from Nintendo (if Walmart is all out, more people will buy the system from Amazon). However, now that the system is widely available, demand should be largest driving factor to new numbers we obtain.

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