Forums - Gaming Discussion - January NPD 2018 predictions thread

Predict the winner of the month

Switch, by a lot 22 30.99%
 
Switch, barely 21 29.58%
 
PS4, by a lot 6 8.45%
 
PS4, barely 20 28.17%
 
XB1, by a lot 1 1.41%
 
XB1, barely 1 1.41%
 
Total:71
newwil7l said:
GProgrammer said:

True, but then again Amazon had Switch winning November 2017, but it ended up getting thrashed heavily by both the PS4 and Xbox One

Why do people keep saying this? Amazon did not have Switch winning November.

Look at that Months Ranking, which include the good friday numbers

How on earth did, PS4 outsell the Xbox One?

How did PS4 sell double the Switch?

Looking at these rankings I would call it Switch > XB1 > PS4, though I suppose you could also argue it was XB1 > Switch > PS4, One thing is clear the PS4 should of come last. Yet it was the exact opposite PS4 sold the most

 

8.Xbox One S

12. PS4 Slim

13. Switch Neon

16. Switch Gray

29. Xbox One X

48. Xbox One X

55. Xbox One S

60 PS4 Slim

82. PS4 Pro

91. PS4 Slim



Around the Network

Switch : 300k
PS4 : 280k
XB1 : 170k



[NSW] 285k

[PS4] 260k

[XB1] 180k



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

[NSW] 270K
[PS4] 250K
[XB1] 110K



Shadow1980 said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Both Welfare and Donny said is 4 weeks... i honestly have some doubts now :-/

Either they just forgot, or the NPD is no longer following the NRF's calendar. Considering they've done the latter since the 90s, I don't see any reason for them to stop. I'm inclined to think Welfare and Donny are simply in error.

EDIT: More proof the NPD follows the NRF calendar:

https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/news/press-releases/pr_090212/
http://www.gtdc.org/NPD.pdf (see footnote on page 10)

You was right Shadow, this is a 5 weeks month, not 4. My apologies.

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4352947/

I'll never doubt about you again :p



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

Around the Network
JSG87 said:

I was expecting
NSW>PS4>XB1

But I'm now expecting

PS4>NSW>XB1.

After how well MHW performed in its opening days I think PS4 would have gotten enough of a boost to tale the month even if Amazon didn't indicate that.

 

Oh and

 

PS4 300K

NSW 220K

XB1 97K

I'm editing my prediction to correct for 5 weeks & MHW later release in January.

 

NSW>PS4>XB1

 

NSW 290K

PS4 250K

XB1 120K



Switch - 350k
PS4 - 270k
XOne - 220k



In the spreadsheet donny provides in the OP of each prediction thread, it lists January 2019 as the leap week. Looks like that was wrong.

[NSW] 343K
[PS4] 281K
[XB1] 216K

Last edited by Welfare - on 09 February 2018

Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

GProgrammer said:
newwil7l said:

Why do people keep saying this? Amazon did not have Switch winning November.

Look at that Months Ranking, which include the good friday numbers

How on earth did, PS4 outsell the Xbox One?

How did PS4 sell double the Switch?

Looking at these rankings I would call it Switch > XB1 > PS4, though I suppose you could also argue it was XB1 > Switch > PS4, One thing is clear the PS4 should of come last. Yet it was the exact opposite PS4 sold the most

 

8.Xbox One S

12. PS4 Slim

13. Switch Neon

16. Switch Gray

29. Xbox One X

48. Xbox One X

55. Xbox One S

60 PS4 Slim

82. PS4 Pro

91. PS4 Slim

Consider, also, that November is the month of big store discounts, which the Switch did not get.



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

palou said:

Consider, also, that November is the month of big store discounts, which the Switch did not get.

That may be true. It does show though the Amazon was a terrible indicator last November for the USA sales numbers.

I think theres a heavy leaning towards Nintendo Products, Why? Perhaps people that buy Nintendo stuff like to shop online, I have no idea why this is

Looking at Software for Janurary 2018

1 MHW

2 Super Mario Odyssey

3 Zelda

4 Mario Kart

 

Will the NPD numbers show this? I'm guessing not