Forums - Gaming Discussion - January NPD 2018 predictions thread

Predict the winner of the month

Switch, by a lot 22 30.99%
 
Switch, barely 21 29.58%
 
PS4, by a lot 6 8.45%
 
PS4, barely 20 28.17%
 
XB1, by a lot 1 1.41%
 
XB1, barely 1 1.41%
 
Total:71
GProgrammer said:
palou said:

Consider, also, that November is the month of big store discounts, which the Switch did not get.

That may be true. It does show though the Amazon was a terrible indicator last November for the USA sales numbers.

I think theres a heavy leaning towards Nintendo Products, Why? Perhaps people that buy Nintendo stuff like to shop online, I have no idea why this is

Looking at Software for Janurary 2018

1 MHW

2 Super Mario Odyssey

3 Zelda

4 Mario Kart

 

Will the NPD numbers show this? I'm guessing not

What concerns NPD software, one thing to consider is that NPD includes digital sales for everyone except Nintendo.



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

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xMetroid said:
Switch : 272k PS4 : 212k Xbox one : 140k

So for 5 weeks :

 

1- Switch : 320k

2- PS4 : 270k

3- XBone : 180k



jason1637 said:
[NSW] 245k [PS4] 192k [XB1] 160k

Since its a 5 week month I'm gonna edit my predictions.

[NSW] 270k

[PS4] 225k

[XB1] 200k



new prediction

[NSW] 255k

[PS4] 260k

[XB1] 190k

new prediction



Kairos said:

[NSW] 250K

[PS4] 210K

[XB1] 135K

For a 5 week period 

 

NSW -- 260K

PS4 -- 250K

XB1 -- 160K



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Ryng_Tolu said:
Shadow1980 said:

Either they just forgot, or the NPD is no longer following the NRF's calendar. Considering they've done the latter since the 90s, I don't see any reason for them to stop. I'm inclined to think Welfare and Donny are simply in error.

EDIT: More proof the NPD follows the NRF calendar:

https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/news/press-releases/pr_090212/
http://www.gtdc.org/NPD.pdf (see footnote on page 10)

You was right Shadow, this is a 5 weeks month, not 4. My apologies.

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4352947/

I'll never doubt about you again :p


I knew it! The Big Brain am winning again! I am the greetest!

 

EDIT: Y'know, I've been thinking, my predictions are awfully conservative, especially since a lot of other predictions assumed a 4-week period. I was thinking:

Switch: 250k
PS4: 225k
XBO: 175k

Last January it was 210.7k for the PS4 and 157.5k for the XBO. I assumed a 10-15%  YoY dip in the per-week averages (they are at the same price they were last January), and then multiplied by 5 instead of the usual 4.

As for the Switch, I assumed "not as good as the also 5-week September, but still enough to be #1" because January has been a pretty weak month for consoles this generation compared to last gen relative to the rest of the year. The Switch averting that trend would be nice, though.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 09 February 2018

palou said:
GProgrammer said:

That may be true. It does show though the Amazon was a terrible indicator last November for the USA sales numbers.

I think theres a heavy leaning towards Nintendo Products, Why? Perhaps people that buy Nintendo stuff like to shop online, I have no idea why this is

Looking at Software for Janurary 2018

1 MHW

2 Super Mario Odyssey

3 Zelda

4 Mario Kart

 

Will the NPD numbers show this? I'm guessing not

What concerns NPD software, one thing to consider is that NPD includes digital sales for everyone except Nintendo.

Its not going to make much of a difference with Nintendo software as their digital numbers percentage are generally far lower than the other Consoles. This has always been the case, I have no Idea why. Instinctively I would of thought being that Nintendo users are generally younger they would be more open to buying games digital and not physical look in the Old days.



GProgrammer said:
palou said:

What concerns NPD software, one thing to consider is that NPD includes digital sales for everyone except Nintendo.

Its not going to make much of a difference with Nintendo software as their digital numbers percentage are generally far lower than the other Consoles. This has always been the case, I have no Idea why. Instinctively I would of thought being that Nintendo users are generally younger they would be more open to buying games digital and not physical look in the Old days.

Nintendo HAS reported an increase in digital sales.

 

However, that's not important - as we are trying to measure the accuracy of Amazon, in this case. It is natural for NPD to place other developers higher than Amazon, because by adding digital sales, those developers double their sales, which is not reported by Amazon.

 

Or rather, it *is* reported by Amazon, seeing as PS gift-cards are consistently 1 and 2.



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

[NSW] 300k

[PS4] 290K

[XB1] 205K



Welfare said:

In the spreadsheet donny provides in the OP of each prediction thread, it lists January 2019 as the leap week. Looks like that was wrong.

(...)

The error in the spreadsheet is likely due to different logic from the National Retail Federation (NRF). Whoever made the spreadsheet probably assumed that a leap year in retail happens everytime seven excess days have been built up, but the NRF's logic is that if January is four weeks and 4+ days of January are left unaccounted for, then it's time to make January five weeks. That's why there's a leap year in retail despite only six excess days since January 2013.

Switch - 295k
PS4 - 260k
XB1 - 200k



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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