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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So Far, Nintendo Switch is the Fastest Selling console of all time.

AngryLittleAlchemist on 01 February 2018
Seventizz said:
How ironic. The Switch is nintendo's best selling console, yet I find it to be their least desirable. And that's coming from a Virtual Boy owner.

Bad taste isn't ironic. 



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The_Liquid_Laser on 01 February 2018
zorg1000 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

You have a fair point.  But on the other hand, the easiest time to declare a console in "the lead" is right after December.  If they are still the fastest selling console in a few months after the Wii and PS4 get an extra holiday season, then that would really be something.  It would be "the lead" in a more permanent sense.

Well we can look at things a few different ways

Launches aligned (4 fiscal quarters)

Wii-13.17m

PS4-13.50m

NSW-14.86m

 

Calender year

Wii 2007-16.94m

PS4 2014-15.40m

NSW 2017-14.86m

 

First full fiscal year (Apr-March)

Wii-18.61m

PS4-14.80m

NSW-15.00m (forcast)

 

Basically they are all right there next to each other and you can look at it different ways to get slightly different results.

Yeah, this is a more accurate picture.  Switch is doing extremely well, but all we can basically say is that it is neck and neck with Wii and PS4.



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My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

xMetroid on 01 February 2018
Shadow1980 said:
xMetroid said:

Companies are launching with holidays in mind during fall launches. Its not like Switch didn't get its stock problems. It just got it during the entire year instead of christmas which still had some btw.

 

Also, PS4 fell under 10k in japan pretty quickly, it wouldn't make much difference. Switch still has market to be launched into and got some success in SK and taiwan only in December. 

Well, we are talking "fastest selling of all time," and I'm saying that the Switch is hard to make accurate comparisons for. Such comparisons use to be simple back when we were dealing strictly with systems that launched in Q4. But comparing a March launch like the Switch with systems that launched in the fall makes things messy. If we do a straight-up launch-aligned comparison, we get this:

We clearly see why the comparison is not accurate. It ends up comparing the Switch's Nov.+Dec. period to the July-Aug. period for November-launch consoles like the PS4 & Wii (and shift that a month earlier for the PS2, which launched in an October). It makes about as much sense to use this to claim "fastest-selling system" as it did for people to argue against the Switch for having a "bad" second month when its second month wasn't a holiday month.

And this is just for a single region. When you combine everything together into global sales, things get even messier when you take into account that simultaneous global launches in all three major regions (N. America, Europe, and Japan) are a rarity.

A better comparison would be to do this instead:

That way we get a straight quarter-vs.-quarter, month-vs.-month comparison for a single region. This does mean that we can't really do a "fastest-selling system" horse race comparison, but you know what? I'm fine with that. Such a comparison is largely meaningless in this sort of situation. But it does mean we can do comparisons like this:


So, while the Switch's status as "fastest-selling system ever" is rather dubious, and will have disappeared in very short order, it's also still incredibly clear that the Switch is doing very, very well, and is off to a great start. In fact, it'd be doing even better if there were no shortages. The system is and will continue to be a huge success for Nintendo.

We literally never used this argument before the Switch success. Before the Switch launch everyone was worried and asking why Nintendo wasn't launching the Switch in Fall instead of March.

 

Also, just seeing that the 2 consoles holding the records were launched during fall, it doesn't feel like it's a big difference. 



Lawlight on 01 February 2018

Didn’t the 3DS ship more at this stage?



xMetroid on 01 February 2018
Shadow1980 said:
xMetroid said:

We literally never used this argument before the Switch success. Before the Switch launch everyone was worried and asking why Nintendo wasn't launching the Switch in Fall instead of March.

 

Also, just seeing that the 2 consoles holding the records were launched during fall, it doesn't feel like it's a big difference. 

I don't care if the argument was used or not. The fact remains that you cannot make a straight 1:1 LTD comparison between two systems and have it be accurate if the systems were released at different times of the year. And that's just when you're comparing for one region. Take into account staggered release dates between regions and it complicates things even more. The Switch shipping nearly 15 million units globally in 10 months (and selling over 13 million of them) was only possible because it was a simultaneous global launch in a March. By the end of next month, the Switch's status as "fastest-selling system ever" will have evaporated.

Release timing matters in these sorts of comparisons. End of discussion.

Its not the only reason at all. Its not like the console had major droughts all year long AND wasn't out in many countries. And im not talking about 10 months but that right now it looks like it can easily keep the record after 12 months which will be comparable.



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xMetroid on 01 February 2018
Shadow1980 said:
xMetroid said:

Its not the only reason at all. Its not like the console had major droughts all year long AND wasn't out in many countries. And im not talking about 10 months but that right now it looks like it can easily keep the record after 12 months which will be comparable.

13 months would be a better comparison. The Wii was out for roughly 13 months by the end of its first holiday season (its release was slightly staggered; Nov. 19 in NA, Dec. 2 in Japan, Dec. 8 in Europe). By Dec. 31, 2007, the Wii had shipped over 20 million units globally. While it may have been at only 13.17M just three months earlier, putting it behind the Switch's 14.86M for its first 10 months, Nintendo shipped nearly 7 million units in Q4 2007. Because of the holidays.

There is no way in hell the Switch is going to have shipped another 5+ million in this quarter alone. In fact, Nintendo's forecasting only 17.74M units shipped LTD by March 31.

Sales-wise, at the end of 2007 the Wii was at 7.37M in the U.S., 4.6M in Japan, and 5.8M in Europe. The Switch will not match those numbers by the end of March.

Well of course cause the Wii had 2 holidays at the end of 2007 and March is an average month. You were the one saying its not comparable yet you are comparing 2 holidays vs 1. The only comparison we can make is  X Month vs X Month or Year vs Year. Of course Wii&PS4 will pass the Switch after 13/14 months but Switch will most lilely take the lead again after 22 months. And then some will probably stay on top of the others forever.

 



xMetroid on 02 February 2018
Shadow1980 said:
xMetroid said:

Well of course cause the Wii had 2 holidays at the end of 2007 and March is an average month. You were the one saying its not comparable yet you are comparing 2 holidays vs 1. The only comparison we can make is  X Month vs X Month or Year vs Year. Of course Wii&PS4 will pass the Switch after 13/14 months but Switch will most lilely take the lead again after 22 months. And then some will probably stay on top of the others forever.

 

EXACTLY! That's the entire point I've been trying to make all this time. We must always compare like with like. And it's because of this that "fastest-selling system ever" is a largely meaningless comparison in these circumstances.

Well ok so we've just been on the same the for all this time...

We can still, Imo, compare them on their first year, which is what I'm talking about in my "faster selling console over it's launch year".



Frogger on 02 February 2018

I'll never be impressed with "fastest selling" number, personally. Wasn't impressed with PS4, and won't be impressed now. This is a marathon, not a sprint.



xMetroid on 02 February 2018

Well PS4 never was the fastest selling console but I get your point. But as we can't predict how long it will last, it's nice to see great numbers after the Wii U.
Nintendo just got so much good press in 2017 I don't think they need the "fastest selling console of all time" headline anymore but would still be good marketing.
It would finally boucle the negativity they received during the Wii/Wii U era.



xMetroid on 02 February 2018
CGI-Quality said:
xMetroid said:
Well PS4 never was the fastest selling console but I get your point. But as we can't predict how long it will last, it's nice to see great numbers after the Wii U.
Nintendo just got so much good press in 2017 I don't think they need the "fastest selling console of all time" headline anymore but would still be good marketing.
It would finally boucle the negativity they received during the Wii/Wii U era.

I seem to recall otherwise. In fact, I remember a big deal being made about it.

Which timeframe ? Cause I'm pretty sure the Wii stayed on top of it and is still beating it atm.