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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS4 Sells 5.9 Million Units Worldwide During 2017 Holiday Season, >73.6 Million Sold Through

Genos8 on 12 January 2018
JRPGfan said:
Genos8 said:

I see some contradiction here. Do you think it has high chances to be up YOY in 2018 or that being in it's 5th year will greatly reduce sales? Can't go for the latter and then change to the former if it sells much less. I for instance think the ps4 will face a natural decline for being in it's 5th year AND it will be intensified by the switch presence. Without the switch I think it would fall to 17m but the switch should make it decrease to less than 13m.

Okay this is stupid levels of prediction here.
I get your obviously not a Sony fan, but this is just extreme.

PS4 is still 299$ officially (and they went back up to that price really early in december, which is why its dec was down abit compaired to last years).
With official price cuts (249$ or 199$) and "God of War" "Spiderman" "detroit become human"...... theres no reason to think it ll go from 20.2m -> less than 13m.

My thinking is 2018 is a 18m year at worst, at best it might even be another 20m year.

You are acting as if this is entirely on sony's hands and overestimating effects of price cuts this late. Price certainly helps but at this point in a system's life, it's more about slowing down a decline.



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CartBlanche on 12 January 2018
Genos8 said:
JRPGfan said:

Okay this is stupid levels of prediction here.
I get your obviously not a Sony fan, but this is just extreme.

PS4 is still 299$ officially (and they went back up to that price really early in december, which is why its dec was down abit compaired to last years).
With official price cuts (249$ or 199$) and "God of War" "Spiderman" "detroit become human"...... theres no reason to think it ll go from 20.2m -> less than 13m.

My thinking is 2018 is a 18m year at worst, at best it might even be another 20m year.

You are acting as if this is entirely on sony's hands and overestimating effects of price cuts this late. Price certainly helps but at this point in a system's life, it's more about slowing down a decline.

It basically is in Sony's hands. It is theirs to lose in essence.

Much like the Wii (and then the WiiU), the Switch is a terrible fad. Only this generation people will realise this much quicker than they did with the Wii/U. So Switch will sell ok for maybe another 3-6 months, but by November this year, its sales will drop off. They will not speed up. Switch has sold well, selling 10million in 9 months. So just over 1million per month. But the PS4 sold 13.5 million in 10.5 months. So basically Switch has to sell more than 3.5 million units in 1.5 months to beat the PS4 mark by the end of December 2017. I can't see that happening. Switch is the fad for Xmas 2017, for the young demographic it was aimed at, it won't be the fad for those kids and their siblings in Xmas 2018 and beyond, IMO. It is after all a glorified tablet. 

As @JRPGfan mentioned, there are too many AAA exclusives coming out this year for the PS4 to slow down sales wise. X1/X has had little to no impact on PS4 sales thus far and Switch won't have much either. That and the eventual PS4 drop in price, will cause units to shift. I think this year it will go close to 20 million if not over and they'll finish the year getting close to 100million total sales.

 

 



Aeolus451 on 12 January 2018
Genos8 said:
JRPGfan said:

Okay this is stupid levels of prediction here.
I get your obviously not a Sony fan, but this is just extreme.

PS4 is still 299$ officially (and they went back up to that price really early in december, which is why its dec was down abit compaired to last years).
With official price cuts (249$ or 199$) and "God of War" "Spiderman" "detroit become human"...... theres no reason to think it ll go from 20.2m -> less than 13m.

My thinking is 2018 is a 18m year at worst, at best it might even be another 20m year.

You are acting as if this is entirely on sony's hands and overestimating effects of price cuts this late. Price certainly helps but at this point in a system's life, it's more about slowing down a decline.

If anything there's signs of the opposite of a decline so your theory that it's sales for 2018 will drop to around 13m just sounds like wishful thinking rather than a prediction based on analysis.



DonFerrari on 12 January 2018
Genos8 said:
CGI-Quality said:

If it were down by millions, I'd agree. But not 300K and missing the new addition. And, who's to say those 300K weren't for an Xbox One , too? 

I'm clearly not gonna convince you. I'll wait for the numbers.

Zekkyou said:

Japan is the only major region where the Switch's supply issues persisted late into the year. In the US, EU, etc, the Switch has been readily available for most for months (baring specific weeks, as with the PS4), so i'm not really sure i understand your point there.

Switch was selling out fast (just not instantly) in US and Europe too. This is about the switch not having enough stock to affect others early on. The holiday quarter almost doubled the stock for the previous 7 months and that's when it begun to take away more sales from other systems.

You must have been missing in November 2017 when PS4 sold the most it ever have in any month, done over 50% lead on Switch and Switch was readily available the whole month while PS4 1TB was sold out even before thanksgiving.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 12 January 2018
think-man said:
100 million will be easy. Remembering when people said consoles are on the decline xD

There are still some... and they use Wii+PS3+360 sales not being achievable by WiiU+PS4+X1 and doesn't accept that the way to see any significant decline would be PS2+Xbox to PS3+X360 to PS4+X1, while GC-Wii-WiiU spike in the middle isn't significant because most of the Wii demographic didn't buy consoles before or after Wii.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Genos8 on 12 January 2018
DonFerrari said:
Genos8 said:

I'm clearly not gonna convince you. I'll wait for the numbers.

Switch was selling out fast (just not instantly) in US and Europe too. This is about the switch not having enough stock to affect others early on. The holiday quarter almost doubled the stock for the previous 7 months and that's when it begun to take away more sales from other systems.

You must have been missing in November 2017 when PS4 sold the most it ever have in any month, done over 50% lead on Switch and Switch was readily available the whole month while PS4 1TB was sold out even before thanksgiving.

Why did you list a bunch of things with no relevance to what I said? The whole point is the sales being higher if the switch didn't exist.



kazuyamishima on 12 January 2018
Genos8 said:
DonFerrari said:

You must have been missing in November 2017 when PS4 sold the most it ever have in any month, done over 50% lead on Switch and Switch was readily available the whole month while PS4 1TB was sold out even before thanksgiving.

Why did you list a bunch of things with no relevance to what I said? The whole point is the sales being higher if the switch didn't exist.

How it stole sales from the other systems? 

It did 17 and something millions in 2015

And 20.2 millions in 2017 WITH the switch.



DonFerrari on 12 January 2018
Genos8 said:
DonFerrari said:

You must have been missing in November 2017 when PS4 sold the most it ever have in any month, done over 50% lead on Switch and Switch was readily available the whole month while PS4 1TB was sold out even before thanksgiving.

Why did you list a bunch of things with no relevance to what I said? The whole point is the sales being higher if the switch didn't exist.

Because wait you said is irrelevant, wrong and ill informed. Based on poorly made simplification.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

KLAMarine on 12 January 2018
DonFerrari said:
think-man said:
100 million will be easy. Remembering when people said consoles are on the decline xD

There are still some...

You speak of me?

DonFerrari said:

they use Wii+PS3+360 sales not being achievable by WiiU+PS4+X1 and doesn't accept that the way to see any significant decline would be PS2+Xbox to PS3+X360 to PS4+X1, while GC-Wii-WiiU spike in the middle isn't significant because most of the Wii demographic didn't buy consoles before or after Wii.

How do you know this?

How do you know that "the Wii demographic didn't buy consoles before or after Wii"?



DonFerrari on 12 January 2018
KLAMarine said:
DonFerrari said:

There are still some...

You speak of me?

DonFerrari said:

they use Wii+PS3+360 sales not being achievable by WiiU+PS4+X1 and doesn't accept that the way to see any significant decline would be PS2+Xbox to PS3+X360 to PS4+X1, while GC-Wii-WiiU spike in the middle isn't significant because most of the Wii demographic didn't buy consoles before or after Wii.

How do you know this?

How do you know that "the Wii demographic didn't buy consoles before or after Wii"?

I won't enter the same discussion with you when you fail to recognize spoke person of Nintendo and other companies about the strategy and target audience of Wii even after being on VGC for over 3 years.

Because certainly the elderlies that loved Wii Sports are the same demograph of God of War.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."