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CartBlanche on 12 January 2018
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Genos8 said:
JRPGfan said:

Okay this is stupid levels of prediction here.
I get your obviously not a Sony fan, but this is just extreme.

PS4 is still 299$ officially (and they went back up to that price really early in december, which is why its dec was down abit compaired to last years).
With official price cuts (249$ or 199$) and "God of War" "Spiderman" "detroit become human"...... theres no reason to think it ll go from 20.2m -> less than 13m.

My thinking is 2018 is a 18m year at worst, at best it might even be another 20m year.

You are acting as if this is entirely on sony's hands and overestimating effects of price cuts this late. Price certainly helps but at this point in a system's life, it's more about slowing down a decline.

It basically is in Sony's hands. It is theirs to lose in essence.

Much like the Wii (and then the WiiU), the Switch is a terrible fad. Only this generation people will realise this much quicker than they did with the Wii/U. So Switch will sell ok for maybe another 3-6 months, but by November this year, its sales will drop off. They will not speed up. Switch has sold well, selling 10million in 9 months. So just over 1million per month. But the PS4 sold 13.5 million in 10.5 months. So basically Switch has to sell more than 3.5 million units in 1.5 months to beat the PS4 mark by the end of December 2017. I can't see that happening. Switch is the fad for Xmas 2017, for the young demographic it was aimed at, it won't be the fad for those kids and their siblings in Xmas 2018 and beyond, IMO. It is after all a glorified tablet. 

As @JRPGfan mentioned, there are too many AAA exclusives coming out this year for the PS4 to slow down sales wise. X1/X has had little to no impact on PS4 sales thus far and Switch won't have much either. That and the eventual PS4 drop in price, will cause units to shift. I think this year it will go close to 20 million if not over and they'll finish the year getting close to 100million total sales.