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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict 2018 sales for Xb1, PS4, SW and 3DS

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quickrick on 30 December 2017
StarDoor said:
quickrick said:

or i can use official shipment numbers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_3DS_sales

Okay... All that proves is that literally none of your numbers are correct. I was at least giving you the benefit of the doubt on 3DS selling 14 million in 2013, but I guess if you want to be completely wrong, so be it.

3DS shipments in CY 2013: 12.90 million
3DS shipments in CY 2014: 7.67 million (Not 7 million)
Difference: -40.4% (Not 50%)

i was comparing it to 2011-2012.



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zorg1000 on 30 December 2017
StarDoor said:
quickrick said:

or i can use official shipment numbers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_3DS_sales

Okay... All that proves is that literally none of your numbers are correct. I was at least giving you the benefit of the doubt on 3DS selling 14 million in 2013, but I guess if you want to be completely wrong, so be it.

3DS shipments in CY 2013: 12.90 million
3DS shipments in CY 2014: 7.67 million (Not 7 million)
Difference: -40.4% (Not 50%)

His numbers are off but what he is saying is correct, 3DS did have a big drop off in its 4th year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

PortisheadBiscuit on 30 December 2017
quickrick said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Again you're comparing apples to oranges, Switch already had it's first year. Don't you think Nintendo is in a better position at present time to predict a 2ND year of a console after seeing how well it performed it's launch year? Even Nintendo underestimated the potential of the Switch BEFORE it was released. 

nintendo kept its forecast way above expectations for the second year as well.

They lowered their forecast for the 2nd year 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/technology/nintendo-warns-of-weak-wii-u-sales.html



zorg1000 on 30 December 2017
quickrick said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Again you're comparing apples to oranges, Switch already had it's first year. Don't you think Nintendo is in a better position at present time to predict a 2ND year of a console after seeing how well it performed it's launch year? Even Nintendo underestimated the potential of the Switch BEFORE it was released. 

nintendo kept its forecast way above expectations for the second year as well.

The point you are trying to make doesnt hold much weight.

Yes, they overestimated Wii U shipments but Switch is not Wii U and they have underestimated its launch and first year shipments so its comparing apples to oranges.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

PortisheadBiscuit on 30 December 2017
zorg1000 said:
StarDoor said:

Okay... All that proves is that literally none of your numbers are correct. I was at least giving you the benefit of the doubt on 3DS selling 14 million in 2013, but I guess if you want to be completely wrong, so be it.

3DS shipments in CY 2013: 12.90 million
3DS shipments in CY 2014: 7.67 million (Not 7 million)
Difference: -40.4% (Not 50%)

His numbers are off but what he is saying is correct, 3DS did have a big drop off in its 4th year.

His argument is Switch will fall of in 2nd year and that Pokemon will have no positive affect on sales though. 



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quickrick on 30 December 2017
PortisheadBiscuit said:
quickrick said:

nintendo kept its forecast way above expectations for the second year as well.

They lowered their forecast for the 2nd year 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/technology/nintendo-warns-of-weak-wii-u-sales.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/nintendo-earnings/nintendo-keeps-2013-14-wii-u-sales-forecast-unchanged-at-9-mln-units-idUST9E8LU02M20131030 it took them 2 years not 1 to reach the forecast.

zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

nintendo kept its forecast way above expectations for the second year as well.

The point you are trying to make doesnt hold much weight.

Yes, they overestimated Wii U shipments but Switch is not Wii U and they have underestimated its launch and first year shipments so its comparing apples to oranges.

my point just because a company forecast something doesn't mean it will come true, especially this early. 



PortisheadBiscuit on 30 December 2017
quickrick said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

They lowered their forecast for the 2nd year 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/technology/nintendo-warns-of-weak-wii-u-sales.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/nintendo-earnings/nintendo-keeps-2013-14-wii-u-sales-forecast-unchanged-at-9-mln-units-idUST9E8LU02M20131030 it took them 2 years not 1 to reach the forecast.

zorg1000 said:

The point you are trying to make doesnt hold much weight.

Yes, they overestimated Wii U shipments but Switch is not Wii U and they have underestimated its launch and first year shipments so its comparing apples to oranges.

my point just because a company forecast something doesn't mean it will come true, especially this early. 

Yet you, a random on the internet, are predicting Switch's demise in it's 2nd year (which almost never happens during the 2nd year after a successful launch), and we're to go by that? Yeah, ok. 



quickrick on 30 December 2017
PortisheadBiscuit said:
zorg1000 said:

His numbers are off but what he is saying is correct, 3DS did have a big drop off in its 4th year.

His argument is Switch will fall of in 2nd year and that Pokemon will have no positive affect on sales though. 

i never said said that, expect 12-14 million next year. but people act like pokemon is the second coming, it came out on 3ds in 2013, and 3ds didn't do better in 2013 then 2012.



StarDoor on 30 December 2017
quickrick said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

They lowered their forecast for the 2nd year 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/technology/nintendo-warns-of-weak-wii-u-sales.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/nintendo-earnings/nintendo-keeps-2013-14-wii-u-sales-forecast-unchanged-at-9-mln-units-idUST9E8LU02M20131030 it took them 2 years not 1 to reach the forecast.

zorg1000 said:

The point you are trying to make doesnt hold much weight.

Yes, they overestimated Wii U shipments but Switch is not Wii U and they have underestimated its launch and first year shipments so its comparing apples to oranges.

my point just because a company forecast something doesn't mean it will come true, especially this early. 

That news article is about the quarterly report at the end of October 2013, which is 11 months after Wii U launched. What are you even talking about?



PortisheadBiscuit on 30 December 2017
quickrick said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

His argument is Switch will fall of in 2nd year and that Pokemon will have no positive affect on sales though. 

i never said said that, expect 12-14 million next year. but people act like pokemon is the second coming, it came out on 3ds in 2013, and 3ds didn't do better in 2013 then 2012.

So you even contradict yourself, you predicted Switch to "fall off a cliff in 2018" yet you're predicting sales to remain flat? You don't even know what you're saying.