it had mario in in October it won september by very little, obviously it makes a difference, but not massive.  

You really think $20/year is gonna stop people from buying it?

Yes definitely a factor surely, its just what number it represents and I would say regional differences. I think in Europe it would be more negative where as the USA not so much because I feel there is greater acceptance of subscription services in the US and European consumers are looking for higher value in their purchases. What the $20 includes and how many Switch games are worth playing online are factors too. If you are someone that wants a Switch but doesn't pay the $20 then you don't have online gaming and that could be enough to put you off the Switch. Both Xbox live Gold and PSN plus have many bonus games plus a huge variety of online titles. As a portable system Switch may not even have a wifi signal in many places it goes and so some may decide to save the $20 because they mainly use it as a portable. My own personal preference would be not to pay it as well but that's mainly because I enjoy single player games more with the exception of mario kart but I wouldn't pay $20 just for that. I have lots of other online multiplayer games on ps4, pc, xbox one etc. It's certainly not going to help Switch sales.

I've a feeling that Nintendo may well introduce the yearly charge at the same time as the Switch is cut in price and so the end result could be an increase in sales as the negative of the $20 yearly fee will seem less important if the console itself has a reasonable price reduction. Just my guess as a good way of introducing the online subscription.

I get what you're saying but i just cant see $20/year (less than $2/month) making any sort of difference in hardware sales.

Hmm...the only way I see 20M+ Switches sold in 2018 is if they have a surprise Animal Crossing announcement and heaps of third-party support (like GTA5) along with the games that they have already promised. But according to the Amazon leak I don't think should be something to worry about. As long as the surprise announcements aren't E3 2015 level (like getting new spinoff games) this is fine.

PS4 22 MILLION

SWITCH 22 MILLION

XBOX ONE 10 MILLION

3DS 4 MILLION

VITA 1 MILLION

WIIU 20000

PS3 15000

360 10000

NSW-20 million
PS4-18 million
XBO-7 million
3DS-3 million

If Pokémon is next year 20mil+ is not at all unreasonable for ns next year.

PS4 - 19M (As much I would like it to, I don't think it'll top this year, although may get closer to 20M. If it betters 2017 and gets what will have to be 21-22M to top it, I'll be very surprised and impressed in equal measure).

NSW - 18M (Should see a significant increase on 2017, again, but not yet hit the heights of 20+M just yet. That should come probably in multiple years down the line. If it does reach more towards 20M, I will also be surprised and impressed, but should be down to one or two big hitters being released).

XBO - 8M (This is my most ambitious prediction of the lot, as I think the Xbox has the greatest chance of falling flat and only achieving 6-7M. Should depend on discounts and if the One X can help boost total sales).

3DS - 4M (I generally have less to go on and haven't kept up with its general performance vs the other 3, so this is more a general prediction based on post before mine).

Switch- 22m
PS4- 11m
XBO- 5M
3DS- 1m