The 4th SW movie in 3.5 years? I know it's SW but just look at how TLJ's box office performance has been because "the fans have spoken" lol. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if it was able to break the billion dollar barrier and I wouldn't be surprised if it made less than 600 million since the movie may not be that great so I will caution my guestimate with 700-800 million.

So yeah, my guess would be $750 million. Of course the movie could get rave reviews and be a total hit with the fans but fatigue should play a factor here as it has with TLJ.

What did rogue one do ? 

Rogue One made just over a billion with good reviews and being SW, which is why I wouldn't be surprised if Solo made over/close to a billion seeing as it is a SW film. The only thing I don't know is if it's good or not. There is no way Rogue One would have made over a billion $$$ at the box office had it been a bad movie.

Yeah rogue was good and han solo looks good too. I'll say 700m+

Weekend estimates are in. TLJ did $1.26M. This is 15.9% lower than RO's $1.5M for the same weekend. For the past 31 days, RO has outperformed TLJ by 15.5%. From now until it left theatres, RO made $5.01M. If the 15.5% holds, than TLJ will make just $4.34M. This would bring the final DBO total to $621M. If the FBO precentage of 53.4% holds, final WW will be $1.33B.

Just a few points that help illustrate how poor its legs have been (all numbers pertain to DBO):

- By the end of Week 3, Day 21, TLJ had been outperforming RO, outside of opening weekend, by 9.6%. That performance has fallen to 6.6% in the following weeks.
- By the end of Week 3, TLJ had dropped 28.7% below TFA. It currently is 32.6% below TFA and is looking to end up ~33.7% down.
- By the end of Week 3, TLJ was $21.7M ahead of Jurassic World. It is currently $19M behind it and is looking to end up ~$31.3M behind it.
- By the end of Week 3, TLJ was $72.3M ahead of Avengers:AOU. It is currently $10.2M ahead of it and is looking to end up ~$2.4M behind it.
- TLJ has lost 80.4% of its screenings by Weekend 9. At this point in time, TFA had lost 56.2% and RO had lost 77.7%. JW had lost 73.8% and A:AOU had lost 59.6%.

So TFA made 56% more (or 156% of the) money than TLJ.

Yea, the arrogance of Disney astounds me.  Not only do they give the 2nd installment of a new trilogy in the largest franchise in movie history to "some guy," but also greenlight a new trilogy he can do anything with BEFORE the movie is even out?  It just shows you that Disney, or at least Kathleen Kennedy, was more worried about pushing their own agendas within the SW universe than they were about making good films that would please the vast majority of fans and make a ton of cash on repeat viewings and toy sales.  I mean, I seriously think Rian Johnson got the job when he promised them to push those messages, as well as fill the movie with toy bait, and Disney or Kennedy figured those SW nerds would come no matter what they put on the screen. 

Well, it didn't work.  Not only are they massively down from TFA, ~$315M DBO/~740M WW, but they are performing even worse than the worst case scenario.  When it launched, BOM said that $750-$830M DBO was the safe bet, meaning it possibly could have done more.  Even using the safe bet, and using 54.5% for FBO (which is slightly less than TFA), WW people were expecting this to do $1.65B on the low end and $1.82B on the high end, with a possibility of it doing a little more.  After the 68% drop in the 2nd weekend, analysts were still expecting it to hit ~$1.6B WW, stating the main reason for the drop was the holidays.  That turned out wrong. 

So, what was the worse case scenario?  A 3x multiplier like Avengers saw, which would have led to a DBO of $661.3M and a WW of $1.45B.  It's going to end up ~$40M below that in the DBO and ~$120M below that WW.  That's not even taking into account that toy/merch sales are down, even when compared to when RO, a spinoff, came out.  A lot of fans are not happy.  I know I am no longer watching any more SW movies in the theater, unless I get in for free.

So, yea, I think Disney better rethink giving Rian Johnson full control going forward.  He's good on a visual level, but story telling, especially when its not his own lore to fuck with, he is very poor.  Not only did he give us a shitty send off to Luke, pretty much ruin any character development for the new ones established in TFA, and a scene straight out of any generic Disney flick (the Casino), but he also made it so future installments have to explain away why no one just lightspeeds through another craft to end the battle.  Also hilarious how the movie that told us to forget the past cause its not that great, and look to the future (I guess for more shitty Johnson installments), is immediately followed by the Han Solo prequel.

Yep, ~56% more.  Or TLJ is going to make ~36% less than it.  Either way you want to look at it.

Something also interesting to note. It's been 3 hrs since estimates went up, yet the foreign total has not been updated. Either this means TLJ has stopped making money in the FBO or its so small an amount they are just waiting for actuals before updating it. I do know last week (Mon 1/29 thru Sun 2/4) it only did ~$6M, so I'm not sure which it is.

If it has stopped, that would put the final FBO at $706.1M, a drop of $425.6M or 37.6% down.

Without knowing the quality of Han Solo I'll give a prediction. Obviously a Star Wars movie 6 month after the last will affect it and TLJ's reception will negatively affect it.

365 million domestic 365 million foreign is worst case scenario in my opinion. That's if the movies is horrible and other movies releasing around the time are really good.

Best case scenario is rogue one numbers. It won't do more even if it's the best Star Wars ever because of TLJ.

My prediction is somewhat in the middle. 425 million domestic 450 million foreign. Hope it does more if the movie is good. 

Dont nut hold me 2 that though. Need to see the movie first.