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Forums - Gaming Discussion - "The Nintendo Switch Is Selling Exactly As Fast As Sony's PS4" - Forbes

 

Do you agree with the article?

Yes, Switch will KILL the PS4! 18 12.95%
 
No, PS4 will remain champion! 74 53.24%
 
Hard to tell right now, time will only tell. 47 33.81%
 
Total:139
Miyamotoo on 14 December 2017
Pillertriller said:

Nintendo Fans tending to forget that the switch had some huge Nintendo Games already. And even with those games it didnt manage to sell trough 10 millions faster than playstation 4 with almost nothing but 3rd Party games. Mario and Zelda and Splatoon wont come every year with a new Game to help the Switch for sales. The hype is almost over and sales numbers will you show that soon. Then Pokemon will sell a lot of switches, and after pokemon 90% of all Nintendo lovers already own the system and sales will drop big times, with only japan left were the switch will sell decent amount of switches

But you do realise that most of year Switch had huge supply problems and still have them in Japan for instance!? Mario and Zelda and Splatoon will not be released evre year but there will be other hevi hitters, and games like Mario and Zelda and Splatoon will sell Switch in folowing years also. Nothing suggests that hype is over or that sales will fail drop big time, how time goes Switch is becoming more popular console with evre new release. First you completely wrong assume that Switch are buying only Nintendo fans, and second you do realise that 3DS has installe base of around 70m.

Pillertriller said: 
TruckOSaurus said: 

But for people who don't own the console, those titles will always be there to entice them to buy the console.

Thats right, but like i wrote, most nintendo fans already bought a switch for these games

3DS has installe base of around 70m, so how exactly most Nintendo fans both Switch!? And like I wrote, its wrong to think that only Nintendo fans are buying Switch.

Pillertriller said: 
TruckOSaurus said: 

So you don't think Zelda and Mario will do much better than the ~5mil where they are at right now?

Of course they will sell more over the next months and years, and still most of nintendos biggest fans already bought a switch and these games. Nintendo doesnt have such a large base of fans like playstation. This is because ps offers a much bigger games library in every possible way. Nintendos fan base is much smaller, but much more loyal to they're brand of choice or more fanatic. They really buy everything from Nintendo good or bad it doesnt matter. From 20 millions switch sales will go down big big times. With some boosts from Nintendo Games

So how on earth, DS, Wii and 3DS all ended selling over 70m!? And it's wrong that Nintendo fans buy everything from Nintendo, look at some Nintendo Wii U or 3DS games that didnt sell well at all.

Pillertriller said: 
V-r0cK said: 
So it means that the PS4 will continually stay 50-60M ahead of the NS?

Definitvely, at least till the PS5 will launch. Next year the PS4 will again sell more than the Switch. So i dont see the switch catching up with the ps4

You do realise that Switch was launched 3.5 years after PS4 and that Switch will be active on market and after PS5 is out!? You dont know if PS4 will again next year sell more than Switch.

Pillertriller said: 
OTBWY said: 

I want to escape reality like you.

Its called the non nintendo sight

No, its calling anti Nintendo sight, you basically ignoring clear facts. You sound exactly same like people that predicted that Switch will end up like Wii U.



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Pok87 on 14 December 2017
tbone51 said:
This is my minimum prediction for years 2-4

Y1: 14mil
Y2: 15mil (full supply)
Y3: 16mil (pokemon+new sku)
Y4: 11mil
Y5: 9mil

Minimum 65mil lifetime

My prediction:

Y1: 14 mln
Y2: 15 mln
Y3: 18 mln (Pokemon + price cut)
Y4: 16 mln (Switch Pro)
Y5: 13 mln
Y6: 9 mln
Y7: 4 mln

So after 7 years will by around 90 mln NS on market.



Flilix on 14 December 2017
NPCmates said:
Flilix said:

I doubt it will sell over 100 million. But it's even less likely that it will sell under 40 million. What makes you think that it will sell so low?

I figure Nintendo has about 20mil maybe less hardcore fans Nintendo consoles sales have slowly been declining each new system hence why I think they decided to combined the market making it handheld, also I think the reason the handhelds sold well was due to price, pokemon and the crazy amount of re-releases and double triple and more dippers and last I don't think the gimmick for the new system is strong enough to capture new audience like Wii. It's all just theory and speculation. Maybe I being too hard lets say it doesn't break 50mil and thats if they stay strong with 1st party.

Okay, these are pretty good reasons and these are also pretty much the reasons why I don't see it doing 100 million. However, 40 million still seems a bit too low. This would mean that it would have sold 1/3 of its lifetime sales in its first year. I don't think this has ever happened to any other console.



Oneeee-Chan!!! on 14 December 2017
zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:


2017-~13 million

2018-???12

2019-???8

2020-???8

2021 7

What the hell is this?



DonFerrari on 14 December 2017
Miyamotoo said:
Pillertriller said:

Nintendo Fans tending to forget that the switch had some huge Nintendo Games already. And even with those games it didnt manage to sell trough 10 millions faster than playstation 4 with almost nothing but 3rd Party games. Mario and Zelda and Splatoon wont come every year with a new Game to help the Switch for sales. The hype is almost over and sales numbers will you show that soon. Then Pokemon will sell a lot of switches, and after pokemon 90% of all Nintendo lovers already own the system and sales will drop big times, with only japan left were the switch will sell decent amount of switches

But you do realise that most of year Switch had huge supply problems and still have them in Japan for instance!? Mario and Zelda and Splatoon will not be released evre year but there will be other hevi hitters, and games like Mario and Zelda and Splatoon will sell Switch in folowing years also. Nothing suggests that hype is over or that sales will fail drop big time, how time goes Switch is becoming more popular console with evre new release. First you completely wrong assume that Switch are buying only Nintendo fans, and second you do realise that 3DS has installe base of around 70m.

Pillertriller said: 

Thats right, but like i wrote, most nintendo fans already bought a switch for these games

3DS has installe base of around 70m, so how exactly most Nintendo fans both Switch!? And like I wrote, its wrong to think that only Nintendo fans are buying Switch.

Pillertriller said: 

Of course they will sell more over the next months and years, and still most of nintendos biggest fans already bought a switch and these games. Nintendo doesnt have such a large base of fans like playstation. This is because ps offers a much bigger games library in every possible way. Nintendos fan base is much smaller, but much more loyal to they're brand of choice or more fanatic. They really buy everything from Nintendo good or bad it doesnt matter. From 20 millions switch sales will go down big big times. With some boosts from Nintendo Games

So how on earth, DS, Wii and 3DS all ended selling over 70m!? And it's wrong that Nintendo fans buy everything from Nintendo, look at some Nintendo Wii U or 3DS games that didnt sell well at all.

Pillertriller said: 

Definitvely, at least till the PS5 will launch. Next year the PS4 will again sell more than the Switch. So i dont see the switch catching up with the ps4

You do realise that Switch was launched 3.5 years after PS4 and that Switch will be active on market and after PS5 is out!? You dont know if PS4 will again next year sell more than Switch.

Pillertriller said: 

Its called the non nintendo sight

No, its calling anti Nintendo sight, you basically ignoring clear facts. You sound exactly same like people that predicted that Switch will end up like Wii U.

Since PS5 is no less than 2 years away, perhaps 3... it may even happen that Switch is either on decline or substituted by the time PS5 comes out if regular Nintendo pace happens.

Pok87 said:
tbone51 said:
This is my minimum prediction for years 2-4

Y1: 14mil
Y2: 15mil (full supply)
Y3: 16mil (pokemon+new sku)
Y4: 11mil
Y5: 9mil

Minimum 65mil lifetime

My prediction:

Y1: 14 mln
Y2: 15 mln
Y3: 18 mln (Pokemon + price cut)
Y4: 16 mln (Switch Pro)
Y5: 13 mln
Y6: 9 mln
Y7: 4 mln

So after 7 years will by around 90 mln NS on market.

That would be a pretty abnormal sales curve for Nintendo consoles or even HH. Nintendo is more frontloaded with year 2 or 3 being the peak and then a sharper decline.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Miyamotoo on 14 December 2017
DonFerrari said:
Miyamotoo said:

But you do realise that most of year Switch had huge supply problems and still have them in Japan for instance!? Mario and Zelda and Splatoon will not be released evre year but there will be other hevi hitters, and games like Mario and Zelda and Splatoon will sell Switch in folowing years also. Nothing suggests that hype is over or that sales will fail drop big time, how time goes Switch is becoming more popular console with evre new release. First you completely wrong assume that Switch are buying only Nintendo fans, and second you do realise that 3DS has installe base of around 70m.

3DS has installe base of around 70m, so how exactly most Nintendo fans both Switch!? And like I wrote, its wrong to think that only Nintendo fans are buying Switch.

So how on earth, DS, Wii and 3DS all ended selling over 70m!? And it's wrong that Nintendo fans buy everything from Nintendo, look at some Nintendo Wii U or 3DS games that didnt sell well at all.

You do realise that Switch was launched 3.5 years after PS4 and that Switch will be active on market and after PS5 is out!? You dont know if PS4 will again next year sell more than Switch.

No, its calling anti Nintendo sight, you basically ignoring clear facts. You sound exactly same like people that predicted that Switch will end up like Wii U.

Since PS5 is no less than 2 years away, perhaps 3... it may even happen that Switch is either on decline or substituted by the time PS5 comes out if regular Nintendo pace happens.

That a quite a reaching, 3DS has selling good even after 4-5 years on market and it seems that Switch with revisions and difrent types of hardware will be closer to 3DS, in 2-3 years Switch can have some of its best years on market. In any case he implied that Switch will stop selling when PS5 comes in market and offocurse that dont make sense.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 14 December 2017

Agente42 on 14 December 2017
HoangNhatAnh said:
quickrick said:

For me the fun is in predicting the market. i also i like the way sony operates with making the best consoles for gaming, and giving developers the best choice they can at a affordable price to the market. Nintendo could only compete with handhelds interms of units old, but handheld gaming well continue to shrink, because really cell phones are all the entrainment you need on the go.  

Yeah, Sony doesn't stand a chance against Nintendo portable like psp vs DS or vita vs 3DS

 


Yeah. I agree with you. In the dedicated market of handheld Nintendo never lost. Never. Turned the 3ds initially a failure into a small success. The Switch is the direct, successor to 3ds and wiiu. And Vita too. How will you sell so little if he continues to produce games for the video game? Remembering that all divisions of the company are focused only on a video game now. The big system sellers like Pokemon, Mario 2d, Animal Crossing have not yet contributed in the video game.
I predict something between 65-85 million at the least



DonFerrari on 14 December 2017
Miyamotoo said:
DonFerrari said:

Since PS5 is no less than 2 years away, perhaps 3... it may even happen that Switch is either on decline or substituted by the time PS5 comes out if regular Nintendo pace happens.

That a quite a reaching, 3DS has selling good even after 4-5 years on market and it seems that Switch with revisions and difrent types of hardware will be closer to 3DS, in 2-3 years Switch can have some of its best years on market. In any case he implied that Switch will stop selling when PS5 comes in market and offocurse that dont make sense.

#DS

2011 - 13M

2012 - 14M

2013 - 14M

2014 - 10M

2015 - 7M

Year 4 and 5 saw 30% drop on the previous year. But certainly the peak and the drop is smoother than what we have seen from the Nintendo consoles.

One thing I have to remember you and other Nintendo fans all the time is that you can't by calling it a hybrid uses only the strenghts of what Nintendo had on consoles and HH without also considering the weakness of both, like if the sum of the parts made it all strenghts and no weakness.

We can't really be sure if they will have several revisions and that it will bring high sales, although it's expected. Still as I put, if PS5 comes only by 2021, Switch would already be on the decline phase so it would be even harder to see it passing PS4 (because also, PS5 releasing in 2021 means PS4 sales up until that point were still strong).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

zorg1000 on 14 December 2017
quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

Google just gave me videos and articles about people literally falling off cliffs lol

look at 3 articles and they say falling off a cliff with very small drops. its all about context.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4093649-ford-sales-falling-cliff

 

https://techcrunch.com/2016/04/26/why-apples-stock-fell-off-a-cliff-today/

 

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13754264/1/nike-stock-falls-off-a-cliff-after-hours-despite-solid-growth.html

2 of those links are talking about stock dropping within hours, a companies value dropping 8% in a couple hours is alot different than a device declining 8% over the course of a year.

Falling off a cliff implies a large sudden decline, not a slow gradual one.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Miyamotoo on 14 December 2017
DonFerrari said:
Miyamotoo said:

That a quite a reaching, 3DS has selling good even after 4-5 years on market and it seems that Switch with revisions and difrent types of hardware will be closer to 3DS, in 2-3 years Switch can have some of its best years on market. In any case he implied that Switch will stop selling when PS5 comes in market and offocurse that dont make sense.

#DS

2011 - 13M

2012 - 14M

2013 - 14M

2014 - 10M

2015 - 7M

Year 4 and 5 saw 30% drop on the previous year. But certainly the peak and the drop is smoother than what we have seen from the Nintendo consoles.

One thing I have to remember you and other Nintendo fans all the time is that you can't by calling it a hybrid uses only the strenghts of what Nintendo had on consoles and HH without also considering the weakness of both, like if the sum of the parts made it all strenghts and no weakness.

We can't really be sure if they will have several revisions and that it will bring high sales, although it's expected. Still as I put, if PS5 comes only by 2021, Switch would already be on the decline phase so it would be even harder to see it passing PS4 (because also, PS5 releasing in 2021 means PS4 sales up until that point were still strong).

Actually this are more accurate shipped numbers for fiscal years, and it's obvious that 3DS is seiling OK even in its 7. year on market.

https://www.statista.com/graphic/1/262074/worldwide-sales-of-the-nintendo-3ds-since-2004.jpg

Nothing you wrote dont go against what I wrote. And like I wrote, in any case he implied that Switch will stop selling when PS5 comes in market and offocurse that dont make sense.

 

Offocurse that Switch has some weaknesses too, but fact is that Switch is selling on home console and handheld market in same time, and that makes huge difrence compared to only handheld or only home console. Unified software platform where handheld and home console IPs are on one platform is also huge advanatage.

Yeah, its highly expected that Switch will have multiple regions with cheaper one offer also, espacily beacuse next year 3DS will die.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 14 December 2017