jason1637 said:
thismeintiel said:
Why wouldn't they? This year was most likely the peak year for the PS4. Next year will more than likely either be flat or only slightly down. But, 2019 is when we're going to start seeing the decline of these then 6 year old consoles. That would be a great time to keep PS momentum going and announce the PS5, especially if it's B/C.
Besides, history shows 6 years is the standard lifespan of a Playstation generation.
PS1 - '94 to '00 = 6 years
PS2 - '00 to '06 = 6 years
The only outlier is the PS3, which lasted 7 years before its successor launched. Personally, I think that was due to it costing so much to make, Sony wanted to try and cover some the early losses. Not an issue this generation. Besides, when Sony called the Pro a mid-gen revision, I think they meant it. They also said they no longer want to get too far behind on technological advances.
|
The PS4 is still selling really well and the Pro came out last year. Its very possible 2018 could be the peak year and I don't know why Sony will cut the PS4s sales by going with a PS5 in 2019. I think the PS5 is a 2020 thing. Or even 2021.
|
You could ask yourself that same question for any of their consoles, really. The answer is, they aren't cutting their sales short. They are making sure the PS momentum continues. As soon as interest starts to wane in the old console, then BAM! here's the new one. Not only do the new systems sell well, but the old ones continue to sell well, too. The PS1 still sold ~30M after the PS2 launched. The PS2 sold 50M+ after the PS3 launched. Again, the only outlier was the PS3.
The reasons it didn't sell so well after the PS4 launched are many fold. First, it wasn't quite the force the other PS systems were (which the PS4 is, again.) Second, they weren't able to drop the price to $199 until after the PS4 launched, while the PS1 was $99 and the PS2 $129 when their successors were launched (the PS4 should at least be able to get down to $149.) And third, the PS3 had an extended time on the market before the PS4 launched. If you the PS4 launched in 2012, and sales for the PS3 stayed similar, it would have done ~20M after the PS4 launched, as opposed to ~8M (I think Sony is going back to the model that worked best for them, a 6 year gen length.)
The fact is the people waiting to buy a PS4 at ~$149 are not the same people willing to buy a PS5 at $399. I could see the PS4 easily hitting 20M+ after the PS5 launches, even if its in late 2019.
Last edited by thismeintiel - on 16 December 2017