I love the "it has no 3rd party games!!!" argument when Switch currently has about 300 games and less than a dozen are developed/published by Nintendo.

The Switch has better or equivalent support to the Wii - the Wii most certainly did not need any of those titles to succeed. The Switch, in contrary to the WiiU, *does* have the mainstream-media attention to pull it off. It has momentum - that's extremely important, could bring more publishers to approach the system. They're cautious, due to the WiiU, but they'Re most definitely testing the waters, and if it does good enough, they'll get it.

3rd parties *do* help. But it doesn't have to be the AAA titles, the newest titles. MarkB, Octopath Traveller, etc... many third parties have shown great interest in the Switch as a system for mid-sized games, and I think that's enough, really.

I'd be willing to make a bet, if you will - 35 million units, by the end of 2019? 

Whatever the parameter for failure is this week, you have to be absolutely beyond the realm of reality if you think it is still going to fail at this point.

Mainline Pokémon= Automatic Non Failure

This is not savage. This is clean, precise and painless.

The poll lacks options. Switch doesn't need strong western third party support beyond what it's currently getting. Switch isn't like the any other Nintendo console that came before it. Switch's library is like a fusion between Vita, 3DS, and Wii U. Like Wii U it's getting all the AAA 1st party Nintendo titles. Like 3DS it's getting the AA first party Nintendo titles. Like Vita it's getting third party western ports, and heavy third party niche Japanese support.

Vita failed because 3rd party ports, and niche Japanese support doesn't move units.
Wii U failed because 1st party games don't move units by themselves.
3DS was moderately successful, but really lacked a high attach rate.

Combine all three and you get something that will be extremely successful.

I can see it too, its not guarteed to sell 100mil (or 50mil). Its still too early to tell. That said nintendo has an advantage unlike anytime before

*Price: Its still this hot item competing with ps4 (and x1) despite being more expensive (regular sku of ps4/x1) and they can always cut it. Looking at 3ds it was already down to $170 and switch is pulling ahead of that.

*Unified library. Unlike before too the games coming out from a 1st party perspective will increase at least by 50%. It has shown this year.

*Third party, not AAA but indie support. The vita was good for this and switch is shown to be even better. Even competing on par with the other 2 consoles

*The system sellers havent even come out yet. Aka pokemon/Animal crossing/super smash bros/etc

If it doesnt succeed, then nintendo must have done something horribly wrong

I kinda agree with you, it'll fail as a handheld but succed as a home console. It happens a lot with Nintendo hardware, very frontloaded.

I kinda have the same feeling but you can't deny that it has resonated with people, mainly japanese and american audiences. I think they may have played their cards a bit too soon with main Zelda, Splatoon, and Mario titles in rapid succession (although it gave them great momentum) but only time will tell if they can fill in the gaps for next with worthy titles.