That's stretching even by your standards, tbone. XD

I do expect it to be at around 6.5-7 million, minimum, and become the Switch's #1 best selling game in the process, passing Breath of the Wild, which should be around 6 million by that point as well.
But 10 million? When the best selling 3D Mario game, Galaxy 1, took 10 years to get to 12.76 million?
Yeah, I'm going to lump this comfortably in the "Impossible" category.

'Member at launch when BotW had +%100 attach rate?

Not saying that will happen with Mario but the Switch has been kind of crazy this year.

EDIT: According to an article I just looked up by Polygon for March of 2017 BotW had a 102% attach rate in the USA

I said 10mil not 15mil

Hmmm.. So Switch is going to sell as well globally as PS4 over nov/dec? That seems a bit much.

Not impossible. Nintendo are apparently planning to ship at least 25m Switches next fiscal year, which would be more than PS4 has shipped in any one year. I don't think they'd be setting their sights that high unless the console was selling extremely well now.

Is it much? Maybe more like 14mil but its not impossible.

Nintendo forecast by end of march is 14mil for the fy. Add to the 2.7mil that sold in its first month then its around 17mil for end of march. Take away 2mil-3mil for th next quarter then if the target is hit we should see switch around 14mil-15mil.

More people needed for crow fest

No. Maybe LTD.

Former is fine but latter as a maybe? Lol. Game is going to be the highest selling 3d mario. Bank on it!

So, it sold over 2M WW in Oct. Let's say that's 2.2M. I believe I read it sold ~1M in Nov in the US. That's 3.2M. It hasn't even hit 1M in Japan, yet. For Nov (this includes one day of Oct and 3 days of Dec) it sold ~392K. Let's be optimistic and say it sells ~2M for those two regions for Dec. That still only brings us to 5.6M for what will be, by far, its two largest regions. Not seeing where these extra sales are coming from. Sure, you still have Nov and Dec in the other regions, but Nintendo isn't the force it is in the US and Japan there. So, I could maybe see another 1.5M for them, bringing us to 7.1M. And Nintendo's digital sales ratio is nowhere near what it is on the PS4 and XBO. So, at best that would get us to 8M-8.5M.

Again, these are best case scenerios. Over 2M could be 2.01M. Mario may only sell 1M-1.5M during Dec in the US and Japan. It may only pull in 1M from the other regions. It may only see 5% of its sales through digital. I think 8.5M will be the ceiling. Still, ~5.5M is a nice floor to have.