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Forums - Sales - Japan sales (Week 47): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - November 20-26, 2017

torok said:
Alkibiádēs said:

We already know that the majority of Switch owners are males between 20-34 years old.

Stop the bullshit excuses.

You should calm down mate, I'm not attacking you personally, unless you're a Nintendo shareholder. I do have interest in knowing the demography of Switch owners, so if you have a source post it here.

And it would be an excuse to what? Poor PS4 sales? Are you kidding me?

"Nintendo only sells to kids" excuse. 

Source: 

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/170428_2e.pdf

"Let's take a look at the kinds of consumers who are purchasing Nintendo Switch. These are the results of an Internet survey that was given to consumers in the U.S. market who had linked a Nintendo Account to their Nintendo Switch system after launch. It is clear to see that purchases are primarily made by male consumers in their 20s and early 30s. The results also show good interest among consumers in the 10 to 19 age range, which we see as a sign of our expanding demographics."



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

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flashfire926 said:
Wow, switch has absolutely cannibalized PS4 (and even 3DS) in Japan. No matter how much people try to downplay that.

Switch cannibalizing PS4 sales would imply PS4 being down. When in fact PS4 is selling just about as much as it always has and probably the same for 3DS (which is an aging console)

The true losers are Wii U and Vita being very much down YoY.



What will be the score for the ps4 with the monster hunter bundle, you think?



So in fact Japan Belongs to Nintendo, Europe to sony and Usa is a battle between Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony?

Am I forgetting something??



SpokenTruth said:
Farsala said:

Switch cannibalizing PS4 sales would imply PS4 being down. When in fact PS4 is selling just about as much as it always has and probably the same for 3DS (which is an aging console)

The true losers are Wii U and Vita being very much down YoY.

Not exactly.  It only has to slow any growth to be considered cannibalized sales. You can still have sales up but if the up is less than it would have been, it's applicable.

For example:

2016 - 10 sales.
2017 projection - 15 sales.
2017 actual - 13 sales.

Granted that's very difficult to prove and usually rests in the realm of sales analysts.  I'm only pointing it out to show that sales don't have to be down YoY, only impacted against what could have been sold.

It's a good point but I don't think anyone expected 3DS to be doing so well as it is, DQXI and revisions certainly helped.

As for PS4 it had its time with DQX1 as well, and now people must wait for MHW in January. If sales seem pretty bad in January then we might be able to say it is affected.



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Wyrdness said:
Zekkyou said:

I'm not arguing about what the Switch is, i'm just making observations about where i think it currently sits in the market. Those observations have at no point lead me to claim it's 'competing as only one type of hardware' though. In-fact the post you're replying to is largely focused on highlighting the absence of that point, and the related reasons.

As for usage, Nintendo don't show an even distribution. They show about half of people use it for both, 19% primarily as a home console, and just over 30% primarily as a home console (50%+ more). In the absence of more specific details from Nintendo, that implies a handheld bias. The effect of that is up for debate, and I've expressed my opinion on it.

Your observation is pushing the notion that it's competing more as a portable vs home consoles which is untrue it's competing fully as a Hybrid that's where it sits in the market that's what my post is highlighting to you.

No you just assume that 50% is more geared towards handheld when in actual fact the data tells us flat out it's being used as a hybrid device like intended with people using it according to their gaming habits, using it in portable mode doesn't really do that much for your point either because many households have shared TVs so undocked mode comes into play then as well.

Yes, it's competing as a hybrid. Where do I say it's not? It being a hybrid doesn't mean it pulls an identical number of people from the home and handheld markets though, and i'm of the opinion that of those it's pulling from those two existing markets more are coming from the handheld side. You're free to disagree, but both of our positions are ultimately just speculation. I can't objectively prove the Switch has an overall handheld bias, anymore than you can prove the Switch is living in hybrid equilibrium with those two existing markets. On that basis my point to OTBWY was that it's a reasonable position, or specifically 'fair'. I think the alternative is also reasonable, i just happen to currently consider the one I've stated to be more compelling.

Your 2nd point is lost on me. The data literally says that 50% more people use it primarily (80%+ being Nintendo's definition) as a handheld than a home console. Does that mean i'm objectively right in general? Of course not, we don't know the specifics of the remaining 50%. They might have a home console bias that evens things out. That, however, is why my comment includes a clear qualifier "In the absence of more specific details from Nintendo, that implies a handheld bias.".



think-man said:
No more derailing, if anyone wants to discuss Playstations success in Japan please do so on Kerotans thread.

I dont think they saw you comment....... 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Zekkyou said:

Yes, it's competing as a hybrid. Where do I say it's not? It being a hybrid doesn't mean it pulls an identical number of people from the home and handheld markets though, and i'm of the opinion that of those it's pulling from those two existing markets more are coming from the handheld side. You're free to disagree, but both of our positions are ultimately just speculation. I can't objectively prove the Switch has an overall handheld bias, anymore than you can prove the Switch is living in hybrid equilibrium with those two existing markets. On that basis my point to OTBWY was that it's a reasonable position, or specifically 'fair'. I think the alternative is also reasonable, i just happen to currently consider the one I've stated to be more compelling.

Your 2nd point is lost on me. The data literally says that 50% more people use it primarily (80%+ being Nintendo's definition) as a handheld than a home console. Does that mean i'm objectively right in general? Of course not, we don't know the specifics of the remaining 50%. They might have a home console bias that evens things out. That, however, is why my comment includes a clear qualifier "In the absence of more specific details from Nintendo, that implies a handheld bias.".

Because the person OTBWY was replying to pushes the notion that it competes more as a handheld which is the notion you're defending, what backs my hybrid stance is the very own data itself which shows the vast majority using both modes as the concept intended we don't need specific data to see that one. If the vast majority of users are dedicated to both modes than it's fair to say it's selling mostly as a Hybrid device compared to the notion of it selling to the bias of being portable.



I think Super Mario Odyssey and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe will both 1 million sellers in Japan by the end of 2017.

I also think Splatoon 2 be at 2 million by July 21st 2018 in Japan, maybe even closer to 2.5 million.



kazuyamishima said:
So in fact Japan Belongs to Nintendo, Europe to sony and Usa is a battle between Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony?

Am I forgetting something??

RotW which is sony too