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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - The Switch and Nintendo hardware

fatslob-:O said:
flashfire926 said:

I see. Proves my point, that the reason to have a good customer base in the first place is to earn more profit.

And the reason to have good profits is to equally have a good customer base as well ... 

It goes both ways ... (it's not a one way relationship like you seem to implicate)

The overall goal is to make money, having a large audience is how companies obtain maximum profit.

They dont create alot of money to obtain maximum audience.

What flashfire is saying is correct.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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I think the Switch will sell 80m, but even if it doesn't, the pressure is not solely on the Switch to bring in profits. Nintendo also has their mobile division making low-cost/high-revenue games. So really we went from Wii U + 3DS profits to Switch + Mobile profits.



RavenXtra said:
I think the Switch will sell 80m, but even if it doesn't, the pressure is not solely on the Switch to bring in profits. Nintendo also has their mobile division making low-cost/high-revenue games. So really we went from Wii U + 3DS profits to Switch + Mobile profits.

More like Wii U + 3DS losses to Switch + Mobile profits



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Slarvax said:
RavenXtra said:
I think the Switch will sell 80m, but even if it doesn't, the pressure is not solely on the Switch to bring in profits. Nintendo also has their mobile division making low-cost/high-revenue games. So really we went from Wii U + 3DS profits to Switch + Mobile profits.

More like Wii U + 3DS losses to Switch + Mobile profits

?  Nintendo has profited on every 3DS sale since July 25, 2012.  It's global hardware and software sales propped up the company to annual profits in 2015 and 2016 before Nintendo's entrance into the mobile market or Switch came on the scene this year.



Nem said:

Hey guys.

So, it has become apparant to me with several game announcements and teases that the Switch is looking like it will suceed the 3DS aswell as the Wii U.

This means that the Switch would have to sell about 80m to match the combined Wii U+3DS sales.

What do you think? Will the switch sell above 80m or will Nintendo launch a sucessor to the 3DS?

Would you still consider the Switch a sucess if it didn't reach those numbers? I'm curious to know what people think.

Switch doesn't need to sell about 80m or to match Wii U+3DS sales, beacuse it can be success and actually make more profit for Nintendo than WiiU+3DS made even if sell less than Wii U+3DS combined.

Switch is in same time handheld so there is zero sense to release another handheld that's part of different platform where Nintendo would need again to support two different platforms, and that goes against everything Nintendo wants to achieve with one unified platform. But we will probably have Switch Mini/Pocket, that will be smaller and cheaper Switch just for handheld play.

 

In any case, I think that Switch will sell more than 80m.



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Nem said:
fatslob-:O said:

Except, OP asked from our perspective ... 

Correct.

It would be interesting to know Nintendo's expectations, but no matter what happens they will always claim it to be a success.

But i think it makes sense thinking that if it sells very south of Wii U+3DS it would be a disappointment. I wanted to know what the perception is though. There's many factors that come into how successful a system is, wich i am not considering here, in particular software sales.

For me the Switch is a singular console, wich for sure sent alot of us into a spin in how it managed to become a success. I am most interested in finding out why that was and how far it can go.

I was not surprised by Switch selling out.  I am more surprised that other people didn't see it.  Here is where I attribute the Switch's success.  

 

This year Switch has been mostly selling to two types of gamers:
1) People dying to play Zelda.
2) People who really want a powerful handheld console.

 

A really good game like Breath of the Wild might increase console sales by (optimistically) 10m, but that train runs out eventually.  The Zelda effect will be gone in 2018 and beyond.  The second group of people are going to keep buying Switch.  Eventually because of customer base and the number of games coming to Switch there are going to be three more groups showing up:

3) Handheld gamers who can't go next gen until the Switch drops in price.  (This could include a cheaper handheld only version.)

4) People who just get the most popular console at the time.  These people do not frequent gaming forums or anything.  They just look what console has a lot of games and what system their friends have.  These people have no console loyalty and can easily switch brands from one generation to the next.  The Switch is going to get a whole lot of these people.

5) There are a lot Wii gamers who bought nothing in Gen 8.  Switch will get some of these people.  It won't get the ones who only showed up for Wii Sports.  On the other hand Mario Kart Wii sold 37m, while Mario Kart 8 only sold 8m on the Wii U.  So there are a lot of people who will show back up for Switch and mostly want local multiplayer games like this.



So expect Switch sales to slow down in 2018, but then really pick up in 2019 and beyond.  Things like the next Pokemon game or a cheaper, simpler hardware version to really spike sales.  In the end Switch is going to sell incredibly well, but I expect a lot of gloom and doom predictions for Nintendo next year because the Zelda effect will have worn off.



The_Liquid_Laser said: 

I was not surprised by Switch selling out.  I am more surprised that other people didn't see it.  Here is where I attribute the Switch's success.  

This year Switch has been mostly selling to two types of gamers:
1) People dying to play Zelda.
2) People who really want a powerful handheld console.

A really good game like Breath of the Wild might increase console sales by (optimistically) 10m, but that train runs out eventually.  The Zelda effect will be gone in 2018 and beyond.  The second group of people are going to keep buying Switch.  Eventually because of customer base and the number of games coming to Switch there are going to be three more groups showing up:

3) Handheld gamers who can't go next gen until the Switch drops in price.  (This could include a cheaper handheld only version.)

4) People who just get the most popular console at the time.  These people do not frequent gaming forums or anything.  They just look what console has a lot of games and what system their friends have.  These people have no console loyalty and can easily switch brands from one generation to the next.  The Switch is going to get a whole lot of these people.

5) There are a lot Wii gamers who bought nothing in Gen 8.  Switch will get some of these people.  It won't get the ones who only showed up for Wii Sports.  On the other hand Mario Kart Wii sold 37m, while Mario Kart 8 only sold 8m on the Wii U.  So there are a lot of people who will show back up for Switch and mostly want local multiplayer games like this.

So expect Switch sales to slow down in 2018, but then really pick up in 2019 and beyond.  Things like the next Pokemon game or a cheaper, simpler hardware version to really spike sales.  In the end Switch is going to sell incredibly well, but I expect a lot of gloom and doom predictions for Nintendo next year because the Zelda effect will have worn off.

 

I think you are either massively overestimating how much impact BotW alone has, or severely underestimating the effect of the Switch's library as a whole. I fully believe BotW by itself would have done no better than what NSMBU did for the Wii U. It's the combination of Zelda/Mario Kart/Splatoon/etc. within close proximity with more games always on the pipeline, aswell it's great hardware concept and great marketing causing it's sell out status I'd say. I also have no doubt Switch will sell more in 2018 than 2017. Zelda and Co. wont suddenly lose relevance next year, especially Odyssey n Xenoblade as they released late, and the continual stream of games will surely continue with the big highlight being Animal Crossing. Plus stock will be better, especially if that 25-30 million shipment number is true.



zorg1000 said:

The overall goal is to make money, having a large audience is how companies obtain maximum profit.

They dont create alot of money to obtain maximum audience.

What flashfire is saying is correct.

The overall goal is to get customers as well ... 

No point in trying to make profit if you don't have any customers at your side ... 



Nem said:

Hey guys.

So, it has become apparant to me with several game announcements and teases that the Switch is looking like it will suceed the 3DS aswell as the Wii U.

This means that the Switch would have to sell about 80m to match the combined Wii U+3DS sales.

What do you think? Will the switch sell above 80m or will Nintendo launch a sucessor to the 3DS?

Would you still consider the Switch a sucess if it didn't reach those numbers? I'm curious to know what people think.

I know myself and others have said this before, but:

The Switch does NOT need to sell the combined sum of Wii U/3DS systems to reach more people or make more profit than they did with those systems. For one, it's pretty common for people to own both home and portable consoles. Secondly, the 3DS received numerous redesigns over its lifespan, including one that outright updated the hardware. Unless the Switch receives a similar update, people have no reason to buy the console two or more times. I think the Switch can most certainly reach 80 million if it at least has a healthy 5 year lifespan, but it wouldn't be much of a stretch for the system to receive a hardware refresh earlier than that.

As for it being the 3DS successor, I'd argue you may only be half-right. Nintendo can release a successor to the 3DS without splitting the market between Switch and another system. The Switch had to make serious compromises as both a portable and a console in order to achieve its current form factor. As a result, there is most certainly still a market for a genuine, portable only system. As the Switch inherently runs on mobile technology, however, it wouldn't be much of a stretch for a smaller, "truer" 3DS successor to release that runs on the Switch's hardware and plays the same games, albeit without access to docked mode settings.



RolStoppable said:
I predicted a minimum of 100m units in January, so beating Wii U and 3DS combined has long been a safe bet from my perspective. There was never a separate 3DS successor planned because Nintendo made that clear enough. Some PR statements to keep the 3DS going for a little while longer don't change that. If you bought into PR and used it as a leap to believe into a separate 3DS successor, then that's solely on you.

As for your tremendously hypothetical question (after all, Switch is going to sell more than 80m with ease), Switch would still be a moderate success at less than 80m sold. The system is going at a pace that will make it eclipse the combined profits of 3DS and Wii U within two years on the market with plenty of room to spare. Of course it would be majorly disappointing if Nintendo messed up Switch that hard in your hypothetical scenario, but the profits wouldn't vanish.

Should be noted that that's not exactly a great yardstick to measure financial success by.