| Nem said: Hey guys. So, it has become apparant to me with several game announcements and teases that the Switch is looking like it will suceed the 3DS aswell as the Wii U. This means that the Switch would have to sell about 80m to match the combined Wii U+3DS sales. What do you think? Will the switch sell above 80m or will Nintendo launch a sucessor to the 3DS? Would you still consider the Switch a sucess if it didn't reach those numbers? I'm curious to know what people think. |
I know myself and others have said this before, but:
The Switch does NOT need to sell the combined sum of Wii U/3DS systems to reach more people or make more profit than they did with those systems. For one, it's pretty common for people to own both home and portable consoles. Secondly, the 3DS received numerous redesigns over its lifespan, including one that outright updated the hardware. Unless the Switch receives a similar update, people have no reason to buy the console two or more times. I think the Switch can most certainly reach 80 million if it at least has a healthy 5 year lifespan, but it wouldn't be much of a stretch for the system to receive a hardware refresh earlier than that.
As for it being the 3DS successor, I'd argue you may only be half-right. Nintendo can release a successor to the 3DS without splitting the market between Switch and another system. The Switch had to make serious compromises as both a portable and a console in order to achieve its current form factor. As a result, there is most certainly still a market for a genuine, portable only system. As the Switch inherently runs on mobile technology, however, it wouldn't be much of a stretch for a smaller, "truer" 3DS successor to release that runs on the Switch's hardware and plays the same games, albeit without access to docked mode settings.
