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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
pokoko on 11 November 2017

A lot of people seem to be absolutely certain about the future when we really do not yet know if the Switch's baseline is artificially high or artificially low due to severe supply constraints. Both are possible.

Personally, I'm wondering if there is a fad effect happening for the Switch in North America, which might result in a softening of the market faster than normal. If so, Nintendo could counter that with a good pace to first party software releases but that's another "we don't know yet" area. Same with consistent third party releases of key titles. They certainly seem to be trying a lot harder to adhere to a clear strategy, which is something Nintendo has lacked in recent years. The new regime might be just what they needed.



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Lawlight on 11 November 2017
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Didn't the PS4 sell about 15M in it's first year on the market? And Switch is expected to ship 16.7 by it's first year? They'll both be close when it comes to first year aligned.

The safe bet is the PS4. The bet I want to make is Switch. Hm..... I don't know

No. That’s the Switch prediction for the first 5 quarters including launch, not first year. And that’s the first full FY for the PS4 not including launxh.



PEEPer0nni on 11 November 2017
caffeinade said: 

Also, China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iskWad8Gtas

Sony cares about China too. AAA exclusive is a bigger investement than anything Nintendo is doing.



Lawlight on 11 November 2017
RolStoppable said:
Switch is going to take this.

People still make the mistake to consider Switch either a home console or a handheld depending on what best suits their argument at any given time. But since the market reception clearly points towards the best of both worlds, sales projections should be made in accordance to that. The home console and handheld market combined are bigger than the home console market alone.

So, the Switch was will sell 80M as a handheld and 80M as a console?



Lawlight on 11 November 2017
RolStoppable said:
Lawlight said:

So, the Switch was will sell 80M as a handheld and 80M as a console?

No, the numbers you use would make it 160m because it can do both.

So, how many units?



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Lawlight on 11 November 2017

Also, the OP is wrong. They plan on producting 25-30M, not ship. There was another rumour that said that they will produce 20M Switches this FY. Doesn't mean they will ship 20M Switches.



p0isonparadise on 11 November 2017

Switch, duh.



caffeinade on 11 November 2017
PEEPer0nni said:
caffeinade said: 

Also, China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iskWad8Gtas

Sony cares about China too. AAA exclusive is a bigger investement than anything Nintendo is doing.

Nintendo has talked about producing anime to promote their titles.
Nintendo has been apparently been talking to Tencent resulting in Arena of Valor coming to the Switch.

It is my opinion that Nintendo is preparing for a large push into the Chinese market.




PEEPer0nni on 11 November 2017
caffeinade said:
PEEPer0nni said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iskWad8Gtas

Sony cares about China too. AAA exclusive is a bigger investement than anything Nintendo is doing.

Nintendo has talked about producing anime to promote their titles.
Nintendo has been apparently been talking to Tencent resulting in Arena of Valor coming to the Switch.

It is my opinion that Nintendo is preparing for a large push into the Chinese market.

So is Sony:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ip-lJg52Ro



caffeinade on 11 November 2017
PEEPer0nni said:
caffeinade said:

Nintendo has talked about producing anime to promote their titles.
Nintendo has been apparently been talking to Tencent resulting in Arena of Valor coming to the Switch.

It is my opinion that Nintendo is preparing for a large push into the Chinese market.

So is Sony:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ip-lJg52Ro

And the PS4 is in its final 3 - 4 years or relevance.
The Switch will be in China for longer, probably.