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A lot of people seem to be absolutely certain about the future when we really do not yet know if the Switch's baseline is artificially high or artificially low due to severe supply constraints. Both are possible.

Personally, I'm wondering if there is a fad effect happening for the Switch in North America, which might result in a softening of the market faster than normal. If so, Nintendo could counter that with a good pace to first party software releases but that's another "we don't know yet" area. Same with consistent third party releases of key titles. They certainly seem to be trying a lot harder to adhere to a clear strategy, which is something Nintendo has lacked in recent years. The new regime might be just what they needed.