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Forums - Sales - Which will pass GCN's NA sales first - 360 or Wii?

ZenfoldorVGI on 10 April 2008

Your analysis is dead on Sqrl.

However, there is the slight kink that Reggie said something about the Wii increasing NA shipments to beat the 360 quicker or something. We'll have to see how things are going since the fiscal year is over, and see if Nintendo had been holding back units so they didn't overshoot their sales goals.

If the Wii comes out with another 160k America figure next week, we might need to adjust.

Stiil, looks like you put a lot more time in it than I have. I'm going with the 360 because of Sqrl's chart.



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superchunk on 10 April 2008
Sqrl said:

I really don't see why you guys are going with the Wii still. Look at the table I posted.

The Wii needs a 30% boost in the current average sales just to get there in the same week as the X360's CURRENT sales pace. If the 360 gets a 30% increase the Wii needs a 70% just to get there the same week. It just seems unfeasible to me even if we assume the Wii will suddenly jump in sales.


Who knows, I've been wrong before but I'll admit up front I really don't think this is one of those times.


You're wrong.

Read my post and redo you math a bit. I have 360 taking 19 weeks, not 17 for one. Plus I massively rounded up Wii's 22 weeks. It was literealy 21.014... That's only 2 week difference. Based on your table that's less than a 20% increase. I think that is a given.

360 will see no weekly increase until holidays. Wii on the other hand will increase its average by 20-25% or go from about 115k/week to about 140k/week. That's not a big difference given they are currently sold out and there are two very big games coming in April/May.



Sqrl on 10 April 2008
superchunk said:
Sqrl said:

I really don't see why you guys are going with the Wii still. Look at the table I posted.

The Wii needs a 30% boost in the current average sales just to get there in the same week as the X360's CURRENT sales pace. If the 360 gets a 30% increase the Wii needs a 70% just to get there the same week. It just seems unfeasible to me even if we assume the Wii will suddenly jump in sales.


Who knows, I've been wrong before but I'll admit up front I really don't think this is one of those times.


You're wrong.

Read my post and redo you math a bit. I have 360 taking 19 weeks, not 17 for one. Plus I massively rounded up Wii's 22 weeks. It was literealy 21.014... That's only 2 week difference. Based on your table that's less than a 20% increase. I think that is a given.

360 will see no weekly increase until holidays. Wii on the other hand will increase its average by 20-25% or go from about 115k/week to about 140k/week. That's not a big difference given they are currently sold out and there are two very big games coming in April/May.

I posted this directly out of my spreadsheet, the math is right. I might be wrong but the math is fine.

 And I'm really kind of confused why you think the average will stay the same for the 360 with one of the biggest games of this generation coming up.  Sorry but GTA IV is a MASSIVE launch even split between two consoles it will have a hardware boost.



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dsoverpsp on 10 April 2008

nice analysis Sqrl!



Parokki on 10 April 2008

Hmm... if the next 10+ weeks are like this one, Nintendo will make it there first. However, the Wii is still getting the launch boost from Brawl, while the 360 has GTA4 and a possibly price cut on the way.

I'll say 360, unless GTA4 is a total dud (relatively speaking), or Nintendo permanently increases shipments to the current level.



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smbu2000 on 10 April 2008
FreeTalkLive said:
 

Last stronghold, that sounds so epic. I heard 360 has a big lead in part of NA, though (Mexico). Also, let's not forget others others. Those Asian nations (except for Japan) seem to like the 360 more than the Wii. So what if the Wii is not out in all of those areas!


Haha, yeah it does sound pretty epic! Well once the Wii overtakes the 360 in NA, then the Wii will have the lead in EVERY region to go along with its WW console lead. (not counting regions where it hasn't been released of course)


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superchunk on 11 April 2008
Sqrl said:
superchunk said:
Sqrl said:

I really don't see why you guys are going with the Wii still. Look at the table I posted.

The Wii needs a 30% boost in the current average sales just to get there in the same week as the X360's CURRENT sales pace. If the 360 gets a 30% increase the Wii needs a 70% just to get there the same week. It just seems unfeasible to me even if we assume the Wii will suddenly jump in sales.


Who knows, I've been wrong before but I'll admit up front I really don't think this is one of those times.


You're wrong.

Read my post and redo you math a bit. I have 360 taking 19 weeks, not 17 for one. Plus I massively rounded up Wii's 22 weeks. It was literealy 21.014... That's only 2 week difference. Based on your table that's less than a 20% increase. I think that is a given.

360 will see no weekly increase until holidays. Wii on the other hand will increase its average by 20-25% or go from about 115k/week to about 140k/week. That's not a big difference given they are currently sold out and there are two very big games coming in April/May.

I posted this directly out of my spreadsheet, the math is right. I might be wrong but the math is fine.

And I'm really kind of confused why you think the average will stay the same for the 360 with one of the biggest games of this generation coming up. Sorry but GTA IV is a MASSIVE launch even split between two consoles it will have a hardware boost.

We have different weeks probably due to starting off with different average weekly sales. :(

 GTA4, while being a big game, is not going to shift as many 360's as Halo3 did, and even that was only a couple of week bump. That is why I say the 'average' will not be affected overall for the 360.

I think the soon to be announced ramp up in Wii's supply plus (SSBB, Wii Fit, MKWii) three games that will all be much larger than GTA4-x360.

 



tabsina on 11 April 2008

Interesting question, well wii seems to be averaging on selling double the amount of 360s a week, so 2.48/1.3



mrkk on 11 April 2008

It will be the 360. Wii will follow a month later, and then surpass 360 sales for good.