By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Super Mario Oddessy+Switch Sales Prediction: NPD

SuperNova on 23 October 2017
palou said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

For have an idea of how Mario usually perform in USA:

[SEP 1996 ]Super Mario 64 (1 week) - 300,000
[AUG 2002] Super Mario Sunshine (1 week)- 350,000
[NOV 2007] Super Mario Galaxy (3 weeks) - 1,120,000
[MAY 2010] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (1 week) - 564,000

BONUS:
[NOV 2011] Super Mario 3DLand (4 weeks) - 625,000
[NOV 2013] Super Mario 3DWorld (2 weeks) - 215,000

Nintendo has *considerably* increased its expenses on advetisement recently though, which leads me to believe that Odyseey will be a lot more front-loaded.

They have increased their advertising effort ever since MK8s original WiiU release. They doubled down on Splatoons release and ever since the Switch was announced they've been hitting it out of the park with their commercials.

This hasn't hurt either the Switches legs, nor any of the games that released on it. Every game that is historicaly expected to have killer legs, has them. A 30 year trend is not going to break because of better advertisements.



Around the Network
Luke888 on 23 October 2017

1M SMO
400k Switch



palou on 23 October 2017
tbone51 said:
palou said:

Nintendo has *considerably* increased its expenses on advetisement recently though, which leads me to believe that Odyseey will be a lot more front-loaded.

Yeahhh ibthink its the opposite. Switch games are having crazy legs. Look at splat2 and especially botw/mk8d

 

I look at the games Splatoon in Japan, Mario Kart and Zelda in the US, and I can see that we've got first-week attach rates of 56%, 40%, and pretty much 100%, respectively. That's what I would call front-loaded. Doesn't mean that they won't sell in the long run, but Nintendo is generating hype with effective advertisement (and just generally, better circulation of information, in the modern era) that creates demand for their games on launch to a scale that hasn't been seen before. 



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

DeuceGamer on 23 October 2017

SMO: 835k
Switch: 425k



virgo on 23 October 2017

Super Mario Odyssey: 930.000 (digital/bundle+retail)
Switch: 525.000



Around the Network
MarkkyStorm on 23 October 2017

700k-800k SMO
500k Switch



tbone51 on 23 October 2017
palou said:
tbone51 said:

Yeahhh ibthink its the opposite. Switch games are having crazy legs. Look at splat2 and especially botw/mk8d

 

I look at the games Splatoon in Japan, Mario Kart and Zelda in the US, and I can see that we've got first-week attach rates of 56%, 40%, and pretty much 100%, respectively. That's what I would call front-loaded. Doesn't mean that they won't sell in the long run, but Nintendo is generating hype with effective advertisement (and just generally, better circulation of information, in the modern era) that creates demand for their games on launch to a scale that hasn't been seen before. 

Using attach rates have nothing to do with legs my friend. Zelda could on and sell 30mil and switch 100mil and your logic says it was front loaded because it was 100% at one time of its life. 



Ariakon on 23 October 2017
Luke888 said:
1M SMO
400k Switch

You stole my prediction!

 

So I'll bump Mario up to 1.1 million :)



Bofferbrauer2 on 23 October 2017
Ryng_Tolu said:

People are being insane with Mario Odyssey.
Remember we talk about one week, and the game will have legs in November/December.

Unless you expect 20-25 million lifetime, launch numbers won't be THAT impressive (>1m).

Also 500-600k for Switch is pretty bold too, but i guess everyone predict what they want, we'll see i guess.

Seen how well both Switch consoles and especially Super Mario Odyssey are doing on Amazon US? SMO has the Top spot for several weeks now, the SMO Bundle was in the top 30 too for some weeks until it sold out recently and the grey Switch is constantly in the Top 10; too, while the Neon goes a bit back and forth because of supply issues but still far above even the best-selling PS4 console.

On the Yearly Amazon Sales chart SMO is already on the sixt spot, behind 3 PS4 Gift cards, MK8DX and BotW, meaning it outsold everything else there before even releasing! Believe me, SMO launch will be massive!

That said, my prediction is:

Switch: 485k

SMO: 1.12M (including bundles and digital)



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

palou on 23 October 2017
Slarvax said:
400k for Switch, < 900k for Mario.

Actually, thinking about it, what do we do if it sells exactly 900k?

 

Made a bet with conditions that aren't defined on the entire domain...

 



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.