If the game is good, it'll have a floor of 2m because it's going to be the first Xenoblade game that's not going to be sent out to die. The original Xenoblade was released to very little fanfare on a platform that probably had a non-casual install base of around 35m, at the very end of its life cycle where hardcore fans had to petition Nintendo to sell it in the west -- and even then, they did so in the US at a very limited capacity. Xenoblade Chronicles X was announced in 2013 and paraded around for almost 3 years to a userbase that couldn't even break 15m. By the time it was released, the Wii U was dead and a lot of people were too fatigued by the long wait to care.

In contrast to those two, Xenoblade 2 seems to have everything going for it as it's releasing on a hot, new platform during the holiday season with a userbase that's motivated to buy. Along with that, it's going to be the first major JRPG to hit the Switch with Project Octopath, a 'Tales of' game, Dragon Quest XI and SMTV coming over in the near future. With all these significant JRPGs coming so soon, the JRPG audiences on the 3DS and Vita might transition over sooner and make Xenoblade Chronicles 2 their first JRPG purchase.

The Xenoblade series itself has a lot of untapped potential based on how each series entry almost sold 1m under really, really crappy circumstances.  I think Xenoblade 2 is going to be the coming out party for the series -- as long as it delivers.

I predict 1.5 mil, but I also think that it will take close to the entire Switch's life to get to that point. Lifetime, that's kind of disappointing. Both Xenoblade games prior released worlwide very late into their consoles lifespan, which lead to nothing more than decent success in the West. To improve by .5 is something, but on a growing platform with it being one of the premier games in the Switch's first year ...

... yeah ... It could have done a lot more with better marketing and perhaps a better art style.

2.5m lifetime

I'm hoping for at least 1-1.5 million. Everything else will be gravy. The previous games have fallen short of reaching a million since the first game, though that may have been due to variety of factors, some self-inflicted by Nintendo. I hope this game breaks through like what Awakening did to Fire Emblem.

Factors that might hold it back are probably due to releasing in December (not sure how games have fared in December releases), the complexity of the RPG system, sales history, the niche feel the series has, and the anime feel of the sequel (though personally I like it for what it is and, like other games, there can be more than meets the eye).

What can work in its favor is that the game releasing in the first year of the Switch's life so there's a lot of need for games to come out for the system and there's potential for sales to continue, even if small, over time as the system continues to grow, it has a presence in the Nintendo community outside of its fanbase due to Smash Bros. and other promotions, its the holidays, and the potential to stand out as THE JRPG for the Switch, a hot commodity as of now.

Hopefully it does well.

800k LT, FW 220k

If ARMS can sell over 1 m, I am going with 3 million until mid 2018.

100k FW WW
650k LT WW

This is how I feel about X2.  I probably would have bought a Switch just for this game if the art style mirrored either of the first two Xenoblade games.  I'm wondering if the art style selection had to do with the game performing well in portable mode.

3 Million life time

Xenoblade 1 sold 1.5M+ if you include the New 3DS Version, the problem with this game was the localization, it was hard to find and was the 3rd wii's most downloaded ISO for people with a hacked console.

XCX had the poor Wii U system :/

I don't know if anyone noticed, but Xenoblade 2 special edition had been in the top 10 seller on all amazons for a long time after they announce the release date, and continues in the top 100 sellers until now.

Amazon USA: #56 (Special Edition)

Amazon GER: #64 (Special Edition)

Amazon CA: #64 (Normal Edition)

I predict 1m+ the first week, and 3m+ for lifetime.