I'm hoping for at least 1-1.5 million. Everything else will be gravy. The previous games have fallen short of reaching a million since the first game, though that may have been due to variety of factors, some self-inflicted by Nintendo. I hope this game breaks through like what Awakening did to Fire Emblem.
Factors that might hold it back are probably due to releasing in December (not sure how games have fared in December releases), the complexity of the RPG system, sales history, the niche feel the series has, and the anime feel of the sequel (though personally I like it for what it is and, like other games, there can be more than meets the eye).
What can work in its favor is that the game releasing in the first year of the Switch's life so there's a lot of need for games to come out for the system and there's potential for sales to continue, even if small, over time as the system continues to grow, it has a presence in the Nintendo community outside of its fanbase due to Smash Bros. and other promotions, its the holidays, and the potential to stand out as THE JRPG for the Switch, a hot commodity as of now.
Hopefully it does well.
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