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Forums - Sales Discussion - 2017 Console Sales Predictions

 

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AngryLittleAlchemist on 02 October 2017
StarDoor said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

13.3 MILLION sales for the Switch in 2017???

Do you expect Switch to sell as well as the PS4 in it's first year?

The correct objection to 13.3 million is that Nintendo has consistently said that they can't produce that much.

Switch actually is selling as well as PS4 in its first year. The holidays will put PS4 ahead (unless Nintendo is just bluffing and actually can radically increase their supply).

From December 29th, 2013 to August 16th, 2014, PS4 sold 5,867,004.
From March 3rd, 2017 to August 12th, 2017, Switch sold 5,750,542.

If you don't think that Jan + Feb + March for PS4 is equivalent to solely March for Switch:

Between May 4th, 2014 and August 16th, 2014, PS4 sold 2,257,214. (15 weeks)
Between April 30th, 2017 and August 12th, 2014, Switch sold 2,367,661. (15 weeks)

(I didn't use April because Switch's sales were still slightly inflated from the March launch, and it wouldn't be fair for PS4)

I know that. I'm just saying that it's not gonna happen. Nintendo predicts 13 mil by March 2018. I doubt we'll see that by January



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StarDoor on 02 October 2017
RolStoppable said:
StarDoor said:

The correct objection to 13.3 million is that Nintendo has consistently said that they can't produce that much.

(...)

I don't recall Nintendo ever saying that.

They've said 10 million for FY3/2018 multiple times. 13.3 million for this calendar year would mean shipping at least 10.5 million units in solely the nine months from April to December 2017. They will not ship any less than 2 million for Q4, so for 13.3 million units to be sold as of December 31st, they would be exceeding their FY forecast by at least 2.5 million. I just don't see that happening.



fleischr on 02 October 2017

For the holiday overall, I predict the 3DS will outsell the Xbox One globally - even with X1X in consideration.

I think the SNES Classic and Switch are kicking off a full scale mania over Nintendo consoles. Families and budget minded people who don't know better will go with cheaper alternative.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

StarDoor on 02 October 2017
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
StarDoor said:

The correct objection to 13.3 million is that Nintendo has consistently said that they can't produce that much.

Switch actually is selling as well as PS4 in its first year. The holidays will put PS4 ahead (unless Nintendo is just bluffing and actually can radically increase their supply).

From December 29th, 2013 to August 16th, 2014, PS4 sold 5,867,004.
From March 3rd, 2017 to August 12th, 2017, Switch sold 5,750,542.

If you don't think that Jan + Feb + March for PS4 is equivalent to solely March for Switch:

Between May 4th, 2014 and August 16th, 2014, PS4 sold 2,257,214. (15 weeks)
Between April 30th, 2017 and August 12th, 2014, Switch sold 2,367,661. (15 weeks)

(I didn't use April because Switch's sales were still slightly inflated from the March launch, and it wouldn't be fair for PS4)

I know that. I'm just saying that it's not gonna happen. Nintendo predicts 13 mil by March 2018. I doubt we'll see that by January

Then... why did you frame your post around PS4's sales?

Your question was, "Do you expect Switch to sell as well as the PS4 in it's first year?"

What other interpretation is there, other than you thinking that Switch can't sell that much because those sales are on the same level as PS4?



AngryLittleAlchemist on 02 October 2017
StarDoor said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I know that. I'm just saying that it's not gonna happen. Nintendo predicts 13 mil by March 2018. I doubt we'll see that by January

Then... why did you frame your post around PS4's sales?

Your question was, "Do you expect Switch to sell as well as the PS4 in it's first year?"

What other interpretation is there, other than you thinking that Switch can't sell that much because those sales are on the same level as PS4?

Because I was too lazy to type "That will never happen due to supply constraints and the PS4 holiday season"

I mean I've literally had this conversation before comparing first year sales, i'm not lying lol. I feel like i've been pretty honest in the past when I didn't know something and was obviously wrong ... so don't know why you're questioning my honesty now. Just didn't want to go into detail about why it was wrong because I had just downloaded Hollow Knight on PC and wanted to play it(i'm not playing it now because my controller input stopped working)



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PortisheadBiscuit on 02 October 2017

PS4 19m
Switch 11m
3DS 7m
Xbox 8m
SNES 5m



Dr.Vita on 02 October 2017

PS4: 19.5M
Xbox One: 8.5M
Nintendo Switch: 10.5M




Dr.Vita talks about Playstation Vita in 2016!
Playstation Vita Media Create Sales (2014 vs 2015 vs 2016)
Playstation Vita Japan Retail Software Sales (2013 vs 2014 vs 2015 + 2015 LTD Edition)
Prediction: Nothing will outsell PSP anymore (except Playstation home consoles)

derpysquirtle64 on 02 October 2017
fleischr said:
For the holiday overall, I predict the 3DS will outsell the Xbox One globally - even with X1X in consideration.

I think the SNES Classic and Switch are kicking off a full scale mania over Nintendo consoles. Families and budget minded people who don't know better will go with cheaper alternative.

You will be dissapointed by the year's end. While Xbox One has dropped a little bit in terms of sales I think they will do the same as last year. 3DS doesn't really have a proper selling point this year at all. All the big games released with no new titles on the horizon. And Nintendo has a heavy focus on Switch. So, that's not gonna happen.



 

Lawlight on 02 October 2017
bluedawgs said:
Lawlight said:
Are we doing manufacturer shipment or VGChartz sales numbers?

Sold to consumer sales from Nintendo and Sony, VGChartz numbers for Xbox One

Nintendo doesn't release sales to consumers.