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Forums - Sales Discussion - Make your call: how long until Switch exceeds "X1family".

 

How long util Switch exceeds "X1 family" in sales.

2 years!!! Switch for the... 177 27.79%
 
3 years, strong sales. be... 202 31.71%
 
4 years. It's hard, but ... 134 21.04%
 
5 years, or more. X1 sale... 49 7.69%
 
Never. Ya can't beat &q... 75 11.77%
 
Total:637
Azzanation on 18 September 2017
DonFerrari said:
Azzanation said:

You limit your mind to just thinking games wont sell unless they have a huge brand name attach to them. How do you know Sea of thieves wont become the next big thing? With the amount of beta testers the results are extremly positive plus its targeted towards the MMO crowd which can be huge if successful. No Sea of thieves isnt as popular as Pokemon (Putting words in my mouth) and SoT hasnt released yet and Pokemon might be still a 3DS game which will probably eat up most of the Switchs sales. Nintendo need to make Pokemon Exclusive to Switch which i daubt due to the heavy Pokemon numbers the 3DS dishes out. 

Whats your point about Halo 5? We are talking about Halo 6 not 5. Hows that crystal ball going? I want to look in it aswell.

My post is about there ammuition, Nintendo have Pokemon and Metroid as there big hitters and MS have Halo 6 and Sea of thieves as theres. We are talking generating sales not which exclusive is bigger than the other. Xbox will surely get a boost of sales when those two games come out so will the Switch.

Sea of Thieves can become the next big thing. But it still haven't.

The possibility of a continuation on the same HW gen to generate more HW sales is nill.

You talk about the other having a crystal ball, but you are the one pretending Halo 6 and SoT will make X1 sell gangbusters.

Comparing Pokemon, Mario and Metroid on their first appearence on the HW to Halo "yearly endeavor" and SoT, to say both cases have similar HW pushing capabilities is preposterous.

On games giving a boost to HW you could say that about any game because most likely someone is buying the console with some new game released even if the game itself sells only 100k.

I never once said SoT or Halo 6 is going to sell gangbusters and outsell Mario or Pokemon etc haha.

MS have games on there own table that can push there own hardware. Weather they outsell Pokemon and Metriod is another topic all togother. To think Rares next big game or the next Mainline Halo game wont push Xbox HW is niave. 



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DonFerrari on 18 September 2017
Azzanation said:
DonFerrari said:

Sea of Thieves can become the next big thing. But it still haven't.

The possibility of a continuation on the same HW gen to generate more HW sales is nill.

You talk about the other having a crystal ball, but you are the one pretending Halo 6 and SoT will make X1 sell gangbusters.

Comparing Pokemon, Mario and Metroid on their first appearence on the HW to Halo "yearly endeavor" and SoT, to say both cases have similar HW pushing capabilities is preposterous.

On games giving a boost to HW you could say that about any game because most likely someone is buying the console with some new game released even if the game itself sells only 100k.

I never once said SoT or Halo 6 is going to sell gangbusters and outsell Mario or Pokemon etc haha.

MS have games on there own table that can push there own hardware. Weather they outsell Pokemon and Metriod is another topic all togother. To think Rares next big game or the next Mainline Halo game wont push Xbox HW is niave. 

You really either have a problem in text comprehension or you decide to understand what you want.

It isn't SoT or Halo 6 selling gangbusters... is they making X1 sales gangbusters.

No it isn't naive. Will SoT or Halo 6 push extra 5M HW sales each? Probably not. But Mario and Pokemon will probably add that to the userbase in quite few time. And why is it? Because the console is on its early days and they are the first out of stablished franchises on the console while Xbox is on its 4 year and Halo was already on the console and SoT is a wildcard. So you can't pretend your prevision of it doing great for the HW as anymore valid than a better historically stablished prevision of it not pushing much hard, no more than 1M sum probably.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

ThisGuyFooks on 18 September 2017
Azzanation said:

 

Yet you choose to ignore that 4 is also the 3rd best selling Halo game in history.. the game that is on decline? how does that work with your formula? You basically put a full stop on a franchise because of 1 game failuring to sell extremly well? And Halo Wars was never a good seller even on the 360 with the very first game and its marketed towards a completely different audience which is niche on consoles. 

Developers can change sales, they can aim high, they can market there games better, they can change or add new features to a game to have it sell better than its predecessor. However you seem to think because Halo 5 and Halo Wars 2 failed to outsell there last entries its game over for the franchise and that Halo 6 and Halo Wars 3 is nothing more than a mediocre selling game and no longer mean anything?

Glad that is your opinion not mine.

Why would i need a formula to know that:

Halo 1 (5.5m) < Halo 2 (8m) < Halo 3 (12m) > Halo 4 (9m) > Halo 5 (5m)

You can clearly see how Halo 3 was the franchise at the top of its popularity and then the decline to Halo 5, basically as popular as the first game, even lower.

Numbers. Dont. Lie.



StuOhQ on 18 September 2017

I think it will pass the XBO, but it's going to take serious time. Even if Nintendo ups their production and manages to sell 16 million p a year, it still has to account for a giant deficit and the fact that there's no way the XBO stops selling entirely.

4 years...



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Cerebralbore101 on 18 September 2017

Four years. XB1 is likely to get at least a couple million units sold per year every year that the Switch is catching up. That means Switch will have to reach 40 million or more. Even at ten million a year every year that takes four years.



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Azzanation on 18 September 2017
DonFerrari said:
Azzanation said:

I never once said SoT or Halo 6 is going to sell gangbusters and outsell Mario or Pokemon etc haha.

MS have games on there own table that can push there own hardware. Weather they outsell Pokemon and Metriod is another topic all togother. To think Rares next big game or the next Mainline Halo game wont push Xbox HW is niave. 

You really either have a problem in text comprehension or you decide to understand what you want.

It isn't SoT or Halo 6 selling gangbusters... is they making X1 sales gangbusters.

No it isn't naive. Will SoT or Halo 6 push extra 5M HW sales each? Probably not. But Mario and Pokemon will probably add that to the userbase in quite few time. And why is it? Because the console is on its early days and they are the first out of stablished franchises on the console while Xbox is on its 4 year and Halo was already on the console and SoT is a wildcard. So you can't pretend your prevision of it doing great for the HW as anymore valid than a better historically stablished prevision of it not pushing much hard, no more than 1M sum probably.

They dont have to sell gang busters to sell systems. Halo 6 will sell well and sell systems, it doesnt have to outsell Pokemon to achieve that.

ThisGuyFooks said:
Azzanation said:

Yet you choose to ignore that 4 is also the 3rd best selling Halo game in history.. the game that is on decline? how does that work with your formula? You basically put a full stop on a franchise because of 1 game failuring to sell extremly well? And Halo Wars was never a good seller even on the 360 with the very first game and its marketed towards a completely different audience which is niche on consoles. 

Developers can change sales, they can aim high, they can market there games better, they can change or add new features to a game to have it sell better than its predecessor. However you seem to think because Halo 5 and Halo Wars 2 failed to outsell there last entries its game over for the franchise and that Halo 6 and Halo Wars 3 is nothing more than a mediocre selling game and no longer mean anything?

Glad that is your opinion not mine.

Why would i need a formula to know that:

Halo 1 (5.5m) < Halo 2 (8m) < Halo 3 (12m) > Halo 4 (9m) > Halo 5 (5m)

You can clearly see how Halo 3 was the franchise at the top of its popularity and then the decline to Halo 5, basically as popular as the first game, even lower.

Numbers. Dont. Lie.

Still bypassing or ignoring the fact that Halo 4 outsold Halo 1 and Halo 2. 

#1 Halo 3 - 12m

#2 Halo 4 - 9m

#3 Halo 2 - 8m

#4 Halo 1 - 5.5m

#5 Halo 5 - 5m (What if Halo 5 surpasses Halo 1? :O)



DonFerrari on 18 September 2017
Azzanation said:
DonFerrari said:

You really either have a problem in text comprehension or you decide to understand what you want.

It isn't SoT or Halo 6 selling gangbusters... is they making X1 sales gangbusters.

No it isn't naive. Will SoT or Halo 6 push extra 5M HW sales each? Probably not. But Mario and Pokemon will probably add that to the userbase in quite few time. And why is it? Because the console is on its early days and they are the first out of stablished franchises on the console while Xbox is on its 4 year and Halo was already on the console and SoT is a wildcard. So you can't pretend your prevision of it doing great for the HW as anymore valid than a better historically stablished prevision of it not pushing much hard, no more than 1M sum probably.

They dont have to sell gang busters to sell systems. Halo 6 will sell well and sell systems, it doesnt have to outsell Pokemon to achieve that.

ThisGuyFooks said:

Why would i need a formula to know that:

Halo 1 (5.5m) < Halo 2 (8m) < Halo 3 (12m) > Halo 4 (9m) > Halo 5 (5m)

You can clearly see how Halo 3 was the franchise at the top of its popularity and then the decline to Halo 5, basically as popular as the first game, even lower.

Numbers. Dont. Lie.

Still bypassing or ignoring the fact that Halo 4 outsold Halo 1 and Halo 2. 

#1 Halo 3 - 12m

#2 Halo 4 - 9m

#3 Halo 2 - 8m

#4 Halo 1 - 5.5m

#5 Halo 5 - 5m (What if Halo 5 surpasses Halo 1? :O)

You are doing in purpose, that is the only explanation.

Again, I'm not talking about SoT and Halo 6 selling gangbuster, but making X1 sell gangbuster... if X1 goes from selling lets say 10M to sell 10.5M (random numbers) because of these 2 games were they system seller? Nope, the fact that they sold some HW doesn't make they system sellers, because by that metric even Wonderbook is a system seller.

Do you know the concept of decline?

The franchise increased from H1 to H3 and is in decline from 3 to 5, that is the definition of decline, after hitting appex, start doing worse.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

ThisGuyFooks on 18 September 2017
DonFerrari said:

 

You are doing in purpose, that is the only explanation.

Again, I'm not talking about SoT and Halo 6 selling gangbuster, but making X1 sell gangbuster... if X1 goes from selling lets say 10M to sell 10.5M (random numbers) because of these 2 games were they system seller? Nope, the fact that they sold some HW doesn't make they system sellers, because by that metric even Wonderbook is a system seller.

Do you know the concept of decline?

The franchise increased from H1 to H3 and is in decline from 3 to 5, that is the definition of decline, after hitting appex, start doing worse.

Im sitting here scratching my head like...WTH?

Im done debating with him.

Basic concepts shouldnt be discussed because it is common knowledge, but he keeps digging deep to "win" with illogical arguments.



Mr Puggsly on 18 September 2017
AlfredoTurkey said:
Shouldn't be compared with two different consoles. I don't care what Microsoft says, Xbox X is a totally new console that plays Xbox One games.

I see your point, but if all games are gonna work on both then they are the same platform. They're running the same content with different graphical settings, like a PC.

If X1X becomes gets its own games down the road, kinda like New 3DS has, then it starts to become its own platform.



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Azzanation on 18 September 2017
DonFerrari said:
Azzanation said:

They dont have to sell gang busters to sell systems. Halo 6 will sell well and sell systems, it doesnt have to outsell Pokemon to achieve that.

Still bypassing or ignoring the fact that Halo 4 outsold Halo 1 and Halo 2. 

#1 Halo 3 - 12m

#2 Halo 4 - 9m

#3 Halo 2 - 8m

#4 Halo 1 - 5.5m

#5 Halo 5 - 5m (What if Halo 5 surpasses Halo 1? :O)

You are doing in purpose, that is the only explanation.

Again, I'm not talking about SoT and Halo 6 selling gangbuster, but making X1 sell gangbuster... if X1 goes from selling lets say 10M to sell 10.5M (random numbers) because of these 2 games were they system seller? Nope, the fact that they sold some HW doesn't make they system sellers, because by that metric even Wonderbook is a system seller.

Do you know the concept of decline?

The franchise increased from H1 to H3 and is in decline from 3 to 5, that is the definition of decline, after hitting appex, start doing worse.

You understand when you sell your 3rd best selling game in the franchise its actually a good thing right? Seems like your basing this decline so much on Halo 5 that it means the series is dead. To say Halo is not a system seller mindblows me. I am not suprised you are on the Halo hate bandwagon.

ThisGuyFooks said:
DonFerrari said:

You are doing in purpose, that is the only explanation.

Again, I'm not talking about SoT and Halo 6 selling gangbuster, but making X1 sell gangbuster... if X1 goes from selling lets say 10M to sell 10.5M (random numbers) because of these 2 games were they system seller? Nope, the fact that they sold some HW doesn't make they system sellers, because by that metric even Wonderbook is a system seller.

Do you know the concept of decline?

The franchise increased from H1 to H3 and is in decline from 3 to 5, that is the definition of decline, after hitting appex, start doing worse.

Im sitting here scratching my head like...WTH?

Im done debating with him.

Basic concepts shouldnt be discussed because it is common knowledge, but he keeps digging deep to "win" with illogical arguments.

Haha and you still ignore the fact Halo 4 is the 3rd best selling Halo game in History, 2nd best in the series if you are only including the mainline games and than your talking about this decline becasue of Halo 5? Going from 12m to 9m was a total failure there and 5 being disapointing means the franchise is dead to you and Halo 6 is a lost cause. Sounds about right to you.

Its ok, think what you want. I can safely say Halo 6 will do better than Halo 5, i guess thats out of line to you becasue in your eyes the series is in decline and doesnt matter what they do, its dead. 

Halo 6 simply cannot be a better game to 5 by your views and will not outsell it because of.. your decline logic.

I am curious, what do you think Halo 6 will sell, 2m.. 3m maybe?