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Forums - Sales Discussion - Make your call: how long until Switch exceeds "X1family".

 

How long util Switch exceeds "X1 family" in sales.

2 years!!! Switch for the... 177 27.79%
 
3 years, strong sales. be... 202 31.71%
 
4 years. It's hard, but ... 134 21.04%
 
5 years, or more. X1 sale... 49 7.69%
 
Never. Ya can't beat &q... 75 11.77%
 
Total:637
ThisGuyFooks on 18 September 2017
DM235 said:
The correct answer is "never".

Within the next 3 years, Microsoft will release the next generation XBox. It will be backwards compatible with the XBox One, so technically, I would still consider that part of the X1 family. The next gen release will cause a spike in sales, putting it above Switch numbers.

Second, the poll specifically said Switch, and not Switch family. Within 3 years, Nintendo will release a Switch XL or Switch Lite (some sort of hardware revision). The original Switch model sales will drop, and never pass the sales of the X1 family.

Third, the sales numbers required for this to happen need the Switch to sell Wii-like numbers. I don't see that as being likely at the current price point, but it is possible Nintendo will get more aggressive with price to gain market share.

Lastly, I think that mobile games will continue to erode handheld sales, so the Switch will not follow the standard sales curve. I think it may peak in its 2nd year before slowing down (instead of 3rd or 4th year as is the case with typical consoles).

Wow............................



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DonFerrari on 18 September 2017
fleischr said:
Xbox sales are declining, and I doubt X1X changes that.

A year in which a mainline Pokemon releases - I'm confidant the Switch could push over 20 maybe 25 million

that would be impressive



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Azzanation on 18 September 2017
ThisGuyFooks said:
Azzanation said:
Nintendo have used 2 of there big cards already with Mario and Zelda this year. Pokemon and Metroid 4 become there next hand however we forget X1 still has Halo 6 and Sea of Thieves as there next big line up. So the way its going i see 4 years if MS next hand doesnt do well which i daubt will be the case. So expect big numbers from X1 next year.

Did you just compared Pokemon to Sea of Thieves when it comes to selling systems? Wow...

Did you forget Microsoft already played the Halo Card with Halo 5?

Im sorry, but did you really compared Pokemon to Sea of Thieves?!

IMO the Xbox One family will remain at No. 3 (Or No. 4 if we are counting the 3DS), so obviously how long will depend on how fast the gap will grow month after month.

You limit your mind to just thinking games wont sell unless they have a huge brand name attach to them. How do you know Sea of thieves wont become the next big thing? With the amount of beta testers the results are extremly positive plus its targeted towards the MMO crowd which can be huge if successful. No Sea of thieves isnt as popular as Pokemon (Putting words in my mouth) and SoT hasnt released yet and Pokemon might be still a 3DS game which will probably eat up most of the Switchs sales. Nintendo need to make Pokemon Exclusive to Switch which i daubt due to the heavy Pokemon numbers the 3DS dishes out. 

Whats your point about Halo 5? We are talking about Halo 6 not 5. Hows that crystal ball going? I want to look in it aswell.

My post is about there ammuition, Nintendo have Pokemon and Metroid as there big hitters and MS have Halo 6 and Sea of thieves as theres. We are talking generating sales not which exclusive is bigger than the other. Xbox will surely get a boost of sales when those two games come out so will the Switch.



StarDoor on 18 September 2017
Azzanation said:
ThisGuyFooks said:

Did you just compared Pokemon to Sea of Thieves when it comes to selling systems? Wow...

Did you forget Microsoft already played the Halo Card with Halo 5?

Im sorry, but did you really compared Pokemon to Sea of Thieves?!

IMO the Xbox One family will remain at No. 3 (Or No. 4 if we are counting the 3DS), so obviously how long will depend on how fast the gap will grow month after month.

You limit your mind to just thinking games wont sell unless they have a huge brand name attach to them. How do you know Sea of thieves wont become the next big thing? With the amount of beta testers the results are extremly positive plus its targeted towards the MMO crowd which can be huge if successful. No Sea of thieves isnt as popular as Pokemon (Putting words in my mouth) and SoT hasnt released yet and Pokemon might be still a 3DS game which will probably eat up most of the Switchs sales. Nintendo need to make Pokemon Exclusive to Switch which i daubt due to the heavy Pokemon numbers the 3DS dishes out. 

Whats your point about Halo 5? We are talking about Halo 6 not 5. Hows that crystal ball going? I want to look in it aswell.

My post is about there ammuition, Nintendo have Pokemon and Metroid as there big hitters and MS have Halo 6 and Sea of thieves as theres. We are talking generating sales not which exclusive is bigger than the other. Xbox will surely get a boost of sales when those two games come out so will the Switch.

Where have you been for the last three months? It was confirmed at E3 that the next mainline Pokémon games are coming to Switch.



Azzanation on 18 September 2017
StarDoor said:
Azzanation said:

You limit your mind to just thinking games wont sell unless they have a huge brand name attach to them. How do you know Sea of thieves wont become the next big thing? With the amount of beta testers the results are extremly positive plus its targeted towards the MMO crowd which can be huge if successful. No Sea of thieves isnt as popular as Pokemon (Putting words in my mouth) and SoT hasnt released yet and Pokemon might be still a 3DS game which will probably eat up most of the Switchs sales. Nintendo need to make Pokemon Exclusive to Switch which i daubt due to the heavy Pokemon numbers the 3DS dishes out. 

Whats your point about Halo 5? We are talking about Halo 6 not 5. Hows that crystal ball going? I want to look in it aswell.

My post is about there ammuition, Nintendo have Pokemon and Metroid as there big hitters and MS have Halo 6 and Sea of thieves as theres. We are talking generating sales not which exclusive is bigger than the other. Xbox will surely get a boost of sales when those two games come out so will the Switch.

Where have you been for the last three months? It was confirmed at E3 that the next mainline Pokémon games are coming to Switch.

Exclusive to Switch?



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StarDoor on 18 September 2017
Azzanation said:
StarDoor said:

Where have you been for the last three months? It was confirmed at E3 that the next mainline Pokémon games are coming to Switch.

Exclusive to Switch?

Yes, exclusive to Switch. Do you not know anything about the Pokémon series? They never make cross-gen games.



Azzanation on 18 September 2017
StarDoor said:
Azzanation said:

Exclusive to Switch?

Yes, exclusive to Switch. Do you not know anything about the Pokémon series? They never make cross-gen games.

Well thats good. No i stopped playing Pokemon at Gold. 

What your telling me is that the new edition to Pokemon wont be hitting the 3DS? Becasue why do i have a feeling that it is also coming to 3DS. Nintendo dont seem like they want the 3DS to die.



ThisGuyFooks on 18 September 2017
Azzanation said:
ThisGuyFooks said:

Did you just compared Pokemon to Sea of Thieves when it comes to selling systems? Wow...

Did you forget Microsoft already played the Halo Card with Halo 5?

Im sorry, but did you really compared Pokemon to Sea of Thieves?!

IMO the Xbox One family will remain at No. 3 (Or No. 4 if we are counting the 3DS), so obviously how long will depend on how fast the gap will grow month after month.

You limit your mind to just thinking games wont sell unless they have a huge brand name attach to them. How do you know Sea of thieves wont become the next big thing? With the amount of beta testers the results are extremly positive plus its targeted towards the MMO crowd which can be huge if successful. No Sea of thieves isnt as popular as Pokemon (Putting words in my mouth) and SoT hasnt released yet and Pokemon might be still a 3DS game which will probably eat up most of the Switchs sales. Nintendo need to make Pokemon Exclusive to Switch which i daubt due to the heavy Pokemon numbers the 3DS dishes out. 

Whats your point about Halo 5? We are talking about Halo 6 not 5. Hows that crystal ball going? I want to look in it aswell.

My post is about there ammuition, Nintendo have Pokemon and Metroid as there big hitters and MS have Halo 6 and Sea of thieves as theres. We are talking generating sales not which exclusive is bigger than the other. Xbox will surely get a boost of sales when those two games come out so will the Switch.

We are talking about System sales.

How many people will buy an Xbox One for Sea of Thieves VS people that will buy a Switch for Pokemon?

People that were going to buy an Xbox One for a mainline Halo already did with Halo 5.

Halo 6 wont have the same impact as 5, as you know Halo games have been selling less and less since Halo 4.



Azzanation on 18 September 2017
ThisGuyFooks said:
Azzanation said:

You limit your mind to just thinking games wont sell unless they have a huge brand name attach to them. How do you know Sea of thieves wont become the next big thing? With the amount of beta testers the results are extremly positive plus its targeted towards the MMO crowd which can be huge if successful. No Sea of thieves isnt as popular as Pokemon (Putting words in my mouth) and SoT hasnt released yet and Pokemon might be still a 3DS game which will probably eat up most of the Switchs sales. Nintendo need to make Pokemon Exclusive to Switch which i daubt due to the heavy Pokemon numbers the 3DS dishes out. 

Whats your point about Halo 5? We are talking about Halo 6 not 5. Hows that crystal ball going? I want to look in it aswell.

My post is about there ammuition, Nintendo have Pokemon and Metroid as there big hitters and MS have Halo 6 and Sea of thieves as theres. We are talking generating sales not which exclusive is bigger than the other. Xbox will surely get a boost of sales when those two games come out so will the Switch.

We are talking about System sales.

How many people will buy an Xbox One for Sea of Thieves VS people that will buy a Switch for Pokemon?

People that were going to buy an Xbox One for a mainline Halo already did with Halo 5.

Halo 6 wont have the same impact as 5, as you know Halo games have been selling less and less since Halo 4.

Yes system sellers, and Sea of thieves can easiely be a system seller. Pokemon will sell Switches and will boost Switch sales, i am not denying that however to think Xbox dont have there own system sellers is .. odd..

The bald had me laugh in real time. Sorry what are you saying? What rule book says that a game can no longer outsell its previous game because of.. unknown reasons? You actually saying Halo 6 will sell less than Halo 5? Are you actrually being serious? How did Halo 4 outsell Halo 1 and 2 than? Wasnt 4 the start of the decline.. So GT Sport on PS4 wont outsell GT6? wtf.. haha

Remember you are talking to someone who games on a Switch and i want to see the Switch succeed, its a great peice of hardware.



StarDoor on 18 September 2017
Azzanation said:
StarDoor said:

Yes, exclusive to Switch. Do you not know anything about the Pokémon series? They never make cross-gen games.

Well thats good. No i stopped playing Pokemon at Gold. 

What your telling me is that the new edition to Pokemon wont be hitting the 3DS? Becasue why do i have a feeling that it is also coming to 3DS. Nintendo dont seem like they want the 3DS to die.

The last Pokémon games to release on 3DS will be Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon, which release this November. At E3, Game Freak separately announced that the next generation of Pokémon games will be for Nintendo Switch, which is in line with what they've always done. They have no reason to continue making games for 3DS; with four sets of games, the Pokémon audience is already tapped out.

Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon aren't even the worst offenders with Pokémon games being released on hardware that already has a successor. Black 2 and White 2 were relased on DS in June 2012, one year and four months after 3DS released.