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Forums - Gaming - Prediction - PS3-PS4 and X360-XOne last big performance spec leap

Spindel said:
Miyamotoo said:
To be fair with every new gen we have less graphic leap, going from PS3/Xbox 360 to PS4/XB1 is definitely smaller leap than going from PS2/GC/Xbox to PS3/Xbox 360, I expecting that next leap will be also smaller.

It's a classical case of diminishing returns.

In example going from a "cylinder" with 6 polygons in the walls to one with 60 is a much bigger visual improvement than going from a cylinder with 60 polygons in the walls to one with 600.

Also I firmly believe that the games with "realistic" graphics will continue to be firmly rooted in the uncanny valley for the forseeable future.

I rhather see the console makers spending the uppgrades on specialised AI hardware than spend more on graphics hardware. There are more things to games than looks.

The modern games I've played (mainly on PS4 and PC) still are lacking in the interaction aspect with NPCs/enemies, even if refinements have been made the scripted nature of the AI still prevails.

Yes, this picture is good example.



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NATO said:
Miyamotoo said:

Yes, this picture is good example.

This comparisons redundant these days, because graphical upgrades are rarely about polycount and more about scene complexity, shaders, lighting, etc  the polycount of a single object is meaningless, the overall polycount of the complete scene however, makes a difference. 

Nahh it's the same thing (or at least starts to be the same thing more and more now). At a certain point added complexity to a scene isn't noteiced as much any more even if the polygon count of that scene increas 10x. 

Tho I would say that most noticable graphical difference is the increasing use of shaders/bumpmapping witch give surfaces in scenes a more "real" look. But I argue that this also suffers from diminishing returns.



Chazore said:
Turkish said:

PS5 Fall 2020 launch:

15TFlopz 7nm post Navi architecture

28GB RAM (24GB gaming + 4GB OS)

Ryzen 12 core 2.8Ghz

~8x leap over PS4, big games like BG&E2 and Star Citizen will be 1st year titles.

I still love the look of this gen's graphics mang, things like PBR makes a yuge difference. Compared to last gen 3-4 years in, UE3 games all started to look to the same, the games were brown and muddy with sub 720p30, by 2010-2011 it was bad.

I dont expect 60fps to ever be the standard, it just hasn't been since the 90s. The extra juice always gets put into more things happening on screen.

Next gen will have more graphics settings tho, I expect higher res 30/lower res 60fps modes be more prevalent, or even a system wide feature.

You honestly think Star Citizen is going to go to that system, let alone as a 1st year title?.


Was there ever a time CRI said that it was definitely going to the other platforms?. I thought no one here gave a damn about the "unfinished" game?.

well I expect the single player portion of Star Citizen to be ready by 2020-2021, and then ported over to PS5 a year later.



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There's no consensus. One camp believes generations will continue as before, the other one believes traditional generations are more or less dead. I'm in the latter camp.



TK-Karma said:

If this has been discussed before and all that and there is a consensus on it already, never mind me =p

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Ok so earlier this evening, I was having a conversation about games sales with a friend, who is not into the topic nearly as much as myself. We were talking about what defines a console generation, with examples of things like the PS2 Slim and Xbox One X being thrown around, to try and define the boundaries. As we kept talking, we really started to focus on the PS4 Pro/Xbox One X iteration, as it's kinda doing the opposite of previous iterations. By that I mean, previous generations would iterate to simply make consoles more compact, cooler and quieter. Yes, changing to brand new chips made with a smaller fabrication process etc., but still designed to operate at the same performance specifications. Whereas, this Pro/X iteration is about adding in more performance, making the console bigger, hotter and louder, instead. Yet, there are no excluisive games for it either, so surely it has to be an iteration and not a brand new console, of course, helping us define that boundary. We then raised the point that since it's a pretty big leap into a half-generation of sorts, then the leap to the actual next generation shouldn't be too big either, right?

If we have back-to-back "iterations", with respect to performance specs, maybe consumers would be used to it enough to accept a third, then a fourth, and so on. Maybe the iterations could happen yearly, as the smartphone market seems to do. That market is quite profitable and supports some of the biggest companies in the whole world, in part due to the sheer volumes, helped by the yearly update cycles. That would make the games consoles market more profitable to hardware publishers. There would be less intense R&D costs associated with massive leaps into things like unknown architectures and multiple new technologies being added on, concurrently, each time. The companies could also get away with calling the product just "The Xbox" or "The Playstation" with yearly updates, sometimes adding one big new thing, or just refining to reduce manufacturing costs. Also, that way, they would never run the risk of what happened to Nintendo between the Wii and Wii U, where consumers didn't understand the product and how it was new. In the future, there may also be techncial reasons for this, like the eventual end to Moore's Law and limited possible increases.

Lower R&D costs, much less risk in marketing, higher annual net sales, planning for future technical risks ... Capitalism will always push change towards these objectives. 

Is it fair to predict that, maybe the next console to release in a few years ... Won't be as big of a leap as we're used to, but a move towards smaller iterations? Maybe the next time feels too soon ... but remember that the sooner it would happen, the better, for the corporations, who are in control of when this would be implemented in the first place. Maybe the PS3 to PS4 and Xbox 360 to Xbox One is the last big discreet leap (at the forefront of raw power available at the time, at least) we'll ever get from this industry.

tl;dr the next console releases won't be as massive of a leap as we have seen in previous transitions. Instead, we will eventually be served smaller and smaller iterations, to meet a yearly cycle, like the phone market.

I kinda expect the Playstation 5 to be around 9-10 teraflops.

Going from 1.84 (the PS4) -> 9-10 is a big jump.

 

"Maybe the iterations could happen yearly, as the smartphone market seems to do."

Not with console, I hope.

Its too often even with 3year refresh.

Hopefully PS5 / XB2, last a full cycle without a mid gen refresh.

 

Also all this hardware power is going overboard, consoles need to be cheap & affordable/easy to use/durable, more so than powerfull.

Its only because of the 4k jump (from 1080p) at all that we need the mid gen bump in power.

Next gen that wont be a problem, so there wont need to be a mid gen refresh for say... 8k, atleast I hope not.



KBG29 said:

Concerning the 10 - 12 TFLOPS. That is what I keep seeing from people on various sites. I in no way see that as PS5 levels. IMO that would be a PS4 premium/ a step above the Pro.

 

Agreed.

KBG29 said:

For SSD prices see here:

https://www.extremetech.com/computing/236260-samsung-plants-to-slash-ssd-prices-to-hard-drive-levels-by-2020

I fully expect SSD prices to be well below HDD prices by 2021, and also in massively larger capacities.

2021 is still a long way away.

All you need is for a factory fire to reduce the amount of NAND production for prices to sky rocket.
Or a new electronics device that increases NAND demand.

And if you read that link... Samsung intends to offer a 512GB SSD for the same price as 1 Terayte HDD in 2020, thus a mechanical disk will still hold the capacity+price advantage even in 2020, which is an important aspect as consoles are cost-sensitive devices.

Plus Hard Drives aren't going to stop progressing either, even that article alludes to the fact that a 1 Terabyte mechanical drive isn't the most cost-effective from a price/capacity standpoint.

NATO said:

Look at some of the last ps3 and xbox 360 games compared to ps4/xbo launch titles, there was very little improvement.

To be fair... The transition from the original Xbox to Xbox 360 was a fairly small improvement as well.


KBG29 said:
On the same note, I expect HBM RAM to see the same massive cost reduction, and massive capacity increases over the next few years.


Depends on what happens on the manufacturing front.

Vega's HBM 2 doesn't come cheap.
http://www.fudzilla.com/news/graphics/43731-vega-hbm-2-8gb-memory-stack-cost-160

And Hynix even went out and said that customers are willing to pay 2.5x more for HBM2.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/11690/sk-hynix-customers-willing-to-pay-more-for-hbm2-memory

Now Samsung has been floating around ideas by releasing a Low-Cost HBM, by removing the silicon interposer which is a big chunk of costs and going with an organic approach... And by reducing how wide the HBM stack is... And relying on clock rates to make up the bandwidth difference.

Potentially, GDDR6 could end up superior to that anyway.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/10589/hot-chips-2016-memory-vendors-discuss-ideas-for-future-memory-tech-ddr5-cheap-hbm-more


KBG29 said:
I believe PS5 will come in multiple tiers from day one. Basically for example, I see a Ryzen 3 + Vega 56 + 64GB HBM + 4TB SSD at $400, R5 + Vega 64 + 96GB HBM + 8TB SSD at $600, R7 + Vega 64 WC + 128GB HBM + 16TB SSD at $1000. This is only an example, I know they won't be using Ryzen and Vega in 2021, and of course the RAM and SSD size will depend on advances/price by then

If you know they won't be using Ryzen and Vega, then why use it in your example? ;)

Well. I hope Sony starts next-gen with a grunty machine and then naturally releases new tiers as technology improves/decreases in costs.
You need the baseline to start high.

KBG29 said:
I just expect to see Sony continue to move towards being more and more comptetive with PC going forward.

The PC will always sit on top of the technology stack going forward... As long as consoles are using cost-reduced PC hardware, they cannot beat the PC.

KBG29 said:
This is based on my expereince with VR, and the idea that it is going to become the next smartphone like boom in the tech industry.

I expect it to fizzle out.

There have been closures, market hasn't "taken off" after 12 months... And more. Lots of hopes, no action.






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vivster said:
fatslob-:O said:

Exactly my thoughts, if we're going to make a jump it should be the most worthwhile of them all since next gen may very well be the last gen and I don't want our last games to suffer in technical quality just because of some premature move/planning/thinking ... 

This gen should last as long as the last one did ... (If Xbox 360 lasted 8 years then so should PS4 too.) 

We may suffer now since our update frequency is lower but it won't be so bad if our next gen consoles are backwards compatible at least devs can retroactively patch PS4 games to run better on it's successor ... 

PS5 should be ideally near 2x the power of Vega 64 with 16 GB of HBM3 sporting 2 TB/s of bandwidth ... 

I disagree. Why would you want to have just one big jump when you could just as well have regular steady improvements. People who don't want to pay money can still wait but it's overall better if we had steady new hardware releases every 2 years. Just letting people rot on their century old hardware isn't the best solution.

And with gradual improvements on hardware over the years backwards compatibility is basically guaranteed.

Ps4 original graphics are good enough for me to last until 2021. Ps4 pro graphics more then enough. There's expensive PCs for those who don't think that's enough but I,  along with millions think it is.  

 

In 2021 I want to buy the ps5 for just $400 and I want it to be a big jump in power on the ps4/pro. 



Well, it depends what you mean by that. In terms of raw specs, there will still be substantial leaps. However, because of diminishing returns, it definitely does get less noticeable the further we go along.