Forums - Sales Discussion - July 2017 NPD Thread! Switch #1

Shadow1980 said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

Do you the source of the numbers. I ask because it seems odd that Q2 sales for 2017 would be so much higher than 2016. Sony noted that Q1 (Apr 1 - Jun 30) PS4 sales were down slightly. Looking at hardware spending, the % increase was marginal those months (least May) and the NPD analyst quoted Switch was the reason for the increase. Shouldn't there be a flattening, not this massive jump in June?

Numbers were catalogued from prior threads. I'm pretty sure all the numbers came from Aquamarine and librarian13579.

Sony's numbers were global shipments, not U.S. sales. It's been pretty well established for a long time now that shipments ≠ sales.

According to NPD, the PS4 sold 381k in the U.S. in June, up a good bit from last year. Overall, Q2 sales in the U.S. were up by 158k units, or 25.6%.

In Japan, sales were very slightly down YoY. Media Create had the PS4 at 294,000 for weeks 14-26 last year, but only 292,368 for the same period this year, a dip of only 1632 units, or only 0.56%.

As for Europe and smaller markets outside the NA/Japan/Europe triad, I don't know, but if actual unit sales (as opposed to shipments, which did decline by 5.7%) were down YoY for the April-June period, the loss had to come from outside the U.S. and Japan.

It should be noted that Sony has had a lot of units on shelves as of march 30th, so global sales can definitely be up even though shipments are down.



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Normchacho said:
DonFerrari said:

which indeed is close to a tie on the 2M. 100k in this situation can be considered a tie.

Not really. They're more than 10% apart. The PS4 could lose May and still be ahead of the Switch.

Yes it could, and switch could had produced and sold more. In the end we would get pretty close number.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
Normchacho said:

Not really. They're more than 10% apart. The PS4 could lose May and still be ahead of the Switch.

Yes it could, and switch could had produced and sold more. In the end we would get pretty close number.

I was using that as an example to illustrate how significant the gap is. I don't really care about hypotheticals.



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

Normchacho said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes it could, and switch could had produced and sold more. In the end we would get pretty close number.

I was using that as an example to illustrate how significant the gap is. I don't really care about hypotheticals.

I see. But really on a HW race 10% advantage on HW itself is pretty much neglible. Even with PS4 2:1 to X1 we get almost the same games (besides japan games of course) and SW sales are good on X1 due to being healthly on USA which have higher attach ratio.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
Normchacho said:

I was using that as an example to illustrate how significant the gap is. I don't really care about hypotheticals.

I see. But really on a HW race 10% advantage on HW itself is pretty much neglible. Even with PS4 2:1 to X1 we get almost the same games (besides japan games of course) and SW sales are good on X1 due to being healthly on USA which have higher attach ratio.

Why are you talking about games and attachment ratios? I was literally just pointing out that the sales gap was too large to call a tie.



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

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Normchacho said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes it could, and switch could had produced and sold more. In the end we would get pretty close number.

I was using that as an example to illustrate how significant the gap is. I don't really care about hypotheticals.

10% advantage in sales is not significant gap in any case.



Normchacho said:
DonFerrari said:

I see. But really on a HW race 10% advantage on HW itself is pretty much neglible. Even with PS4 2:1 to X1 we get almost the same games (besides japan games of course) and SW sales are good on X1 due to being healthly on USA which have higher attach ratio.

Why are you talking about games and attachment ratios? I was literally just pointing out that the sales gap was too large to call a tie.

I'm talking about them just to show that in vg market (where HW aren't sold at real profit) 10% difference is basically a tie because you can still get more SW sales and total profits. Besides the point that Switch would sell more if it wasn't for the shortages.

Anyway this is a pointless argument.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Best GAF prediction: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=245181399&postcount=45

[NSW] 220K
[PS4] 225K
[XB1] 115K

2nd best GAF prediction: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=244891287&postcount=14

[NSW] 243K
[PS4] 219K
[XB1] 128K

The guy who makes the rankings for best predictions is refusing to go beyond the top 2 to prevents numbers from being calculated, but maybe someone can do something with the above numbers. Doubt it though.



Who likely won WW for July?



poklane said:

Best GAF prediction: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=245181399&postcount=45

[NSW] 220K
[PS4] 225K
[XB1] 115K

2nd best GAF prediction: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=244891287&postcount=14

[NSW] 243K
[PS4] 219K
[XB1] 128K

The guy who makes the rankings for best predictions is refusing to go beyond the top 2 to prevents numbers from being calculated, but maybe someone can do something with the above numbers. Doubt it though.

I don't understand how the ranking system works over there or how you can deduce certain numbers through having other constants (such as the ps4/switch figures for that month) but is it reasonable to assume we're somewhere in the ballpark for ~120k +/-10% for X1?