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Forums - Nintendo - Failed Switch predictions of analysts

Zkuq said:

 

Miyamotoo said:

Like? 

Switch has great concept that aims handheld and home console market in same time, and had huge system seller game like Zelda BotW followed by MK8D, it was quite obvious that want be fail. But some people passed that and still were negative about Switch, but that mostly comes from Wii U faile.

High price, not very powerful, somewhat disappointing exclusives in the opinions of some, potentially difficult target audience, and being a bit gimmicky which is always somewhat risky.

It's not really high price for hybrid, you cant rely have hi power with hybrid, exclusives are killing it, just Zelda BotW is one strongest ever game like launch game for any system, target audience was obvious from start, home console and handheld lowers in same time.

Like I wrote, Switch has great concept that aims handheld and home console market in same time, and had huge system seller game like Zelda BotW followed by MK8D, it was quite obvious that want be fail. But some people passed that and still were negative about Switch, but that mostly comes from Wii U faile.



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Ganoncrotch said:
Barkley said:

A few days before the presentation was the leak of the clock speeds, learning the Switch was only going to be 393 GFlops docked. Massive negativity surrounding that one, this built into the negative perception of the presentation. Rumours were the Switch would launch at a low price of $249 at that time.

The presentation came, $299 not the rumoured $249, Paid Online was announced, we learned Mario Kart 8 wasn't a launch title and the Switch was launching with practically nothing, and they spent a ton of time showing our lord and saviour 1-2-Switch.

It was a dreadful presentation. You've just forgotten how bad it was.

Even Rol was defeated by it.

If you think your average gamer on the street gives a rats ass about how many Gflops the machine has you are in the same boat as the people who thought a E3 conference for the XBX would be best started off by talking about Memory bandwidth...

The average gamer who goes to game stop and hands over their cash doesn't know what a GFlop is, they just know what games are and what they hear about on youtube etc. even going back 2 generations, the Wii was a Gamecube 1.5 in terms of specs, still outsold the still impressively powerful PS3 by a clean 20million consoles, Power isn't what gamers go for... enthusiasts on the internet do enjoy their power and list wars... but Enthusiasts are not the people who fund the gaming industry... not even a little bit.

Yeah, people on forums tend to think that their beliefs is shared by the entire gaming community.

Zkuq said:
Miyamotoo said:

Like? 

Switch has great concept that aims handheld and home console market in same time, and had huge system seller game like Zelda BotW followed by MK8D, it was quite obvious that want be fail. But some people passed that and still were negative about Switch, but that mostly comes from Wii U faile.

High price, not very powerful, somewhat disappointing exclusives in the opinions of some, potentially difficult target audience, and being a bit gimmicky which is always somewhat risky.

These look like very good reasons.



 

 

We reap what we sow

160rmf said:
Ganoncrotch said:

If you think your average gamer on the street gives a rats ass about how many Gflops the machine has you are in the same boat as the people who thought a E3 conference for the XBX would be best started off by talking about Memory bandwidth...

The average gamer who goes to game stop and hands over their cash doesn't know what a GFlop is, they just know what games are and what they hear about on youtube etc. even going back 2 generations, the Wii was a Gamecube 1.5 in terms of specs, still outsold the still impressively powerful PS3 by a clean 20million consoles, Power isn't what gamers go for... enthusiasts on the internet do enjoy their power and list wars... but Enthusiasts are not the people who fund the gaming industry... not even a little bit.

Yeah, people on forums tend to think that their beliefs is shared by the entire gaming community.

Zkuq said:

High price, not very powerful, somewhat disappointing exclusives in the opinions of some, potentially difficult target audience, and being a bit gimmicky which is always somewhat risky.

These look like very good reasons.

Aye there was a poll on here a while back to see what % of users of this forum had upgraded to the pro ps4 and then how many would get the X model of X1, and trying to suggest that those figures would be an idea of the % of the total sales of the system, when the reality is that enthusiasts like the users of VGchartz are naturally a whole lot more likely to buy the premium console than your average joe who wants the cheapest machine that will play Fifa and Call of duty.



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Ganoncrotch said:
160rmf said:

Yeah, people on forums tend to think that their beliefs is shared by the entire gaming community.

These look like very good reasons.

Aye there was a poll on here a while back to see what % of users of this forum had upgraded to the pro ps4 and then how many would get the X model of X1, and trying to suggest that those figures would be an idea of the % of the total sales of the system, when the reality is that enthusiasts like the users of VGchartz are naturally a whole lot more likely to buy the premium console than your average joe who wants the cheapest machine that will play Fifa and Call of duty.

There wasn't a guy some time ago that was making a pool to see if the Switch users were mostly Wii U owners upgrading? Those people are priceless.



 

 

We reap what we sow

Miyamotoo said:
Zkuq said:

High price, not very powerful, somewhat disappointing exclusives in the opinions of some, potentially difficult target audience, and being a bit gimmicky which is always somewhat risky.

It's not really high price for hybrid, you cant rely have hi power with hybrid, exclusives are killing it, just Zelda BotW is one strongest ever game like launch game for any system, target audience was obvious from start, home console and handheld lowers in same time.

Like I wrote, Switch has great concept that aims handheld and home console market in same time, and had huge system seller game like Zelda BotW followed by MK8D, it was quite obvious that want be fail. But some people passed that and still were negative about Switch, but that mostly comes from Wii U faile.

If people feel it's a high price, then it is a high price. Turns out the price is not too high, but there was a lot of criticism about the price before the launch. Switch is weak, no matter how you spin it, and it's a negative thing. It might be acceptable, but it's still a negative thing. One exclusive isn't enough in the long run. Luckily BotW doesn't seem to be the only strong exclusive, but I wouldn't exactly say criticising Switch's exclusives was invalid criticism either. The target audience was tough because it's both core gamers and more casual gamers. Generally it seems like the more casual audience is more interested in smartphone gaming these days, so getting their interest seemed difficult. On the other hand, Switch's weak power is more problematic for a lot of core gamers. I don't think being worried about the target audience was an invalid reason to be skeptical either.

There were (and are) a lot of things that supported Switch's success even before its launch, but there were also a lot of reasons why people might not be so confident in it. It requires a lot of insight to be able to properly assess all the things properly in an unbiased manner, and I don't think I've seen a single person on this site show such insight. It's possible there are some cases with proper insight in them, but most cases where people have been predicting anything about Switch's fate have been cases where people have made very shallow 'analyses'.

160rmf said:
Zkuq said:

High price, not very powerful, somewhat disappointing exclusives in the opinions of some, potentially difficult target audience, and being a bit gimmicky which is always somewhat risky.

These look like very good reasons.

Nice cherry picking there, mate. It's a negative, and seeing how big of a negative it is wasn't necessarily an easy task before the launch of Switch. In hindsight, it's easy to say it's not a problem, but I don't think I saw anyone make a proper analysis about how the market would react to the exclusive situation of Switch before its launch. A lot of people said a lot of things about it, but a proper analysis? If there was even one on this site, I probably missed it.

Gimmicks are always hard to analyze, and the same remark about analyses goes for them as well.



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Immediately after the January reveal it was absolutely valid to have negative reactions.

I was very hyped and excited after the October teaser. My son and I had plans to immediately get pre-orders in place when available.

Then January happened and we both were shocked at price, online choices and the initial thought of no games beyond Zelda were worth anything. We decided to not pre-order.

Then as the initial reaction smoothed over and even more info came out about 2017 games, full functionality, etc.. the realization that I set myself up for disappointment on the price and it actually had a solid 2017 line-up caused us to get pre-orders into our local Walmart which thankfully had opened up in-store options.

So, its not so bad that January predictions where so off from what is now reality. However, anything being predicted in since April that didn't have Switch as a resounding success was just foolish. Even though I am still disappointed with their solution for online, everything else is awesome IMO and will easily make-up for that issue. 10MM plus is a done deal this year. I'm even willing to say that Switch sells more by the end of 2017 than WiiU LTD. I have faith Nintendo will produce enough and people will continue to gobble it up.



160rmf said:
Ganoncrotch said:

Aye there was a poll on here a while back to see what % of users of this forum had upgraded to the pro ps4 and then how many would get the X model of X1, and trying to suggest that those figures would be an idea of the % of the total sales of the system, when the reality is that enthusiasts like the users of VGchartz are naturally a whole lot more likely to buy the premium console than your average joe who wants the cheapest machine that will play Fifa and Call of duty.

There wasn't a guy some time ago that was making a pool to see if the Switch users were mostly Wii U owners upgrading? Those people are priceless.

Dear lord yes, I know that guy from Facebook he was on the "console purists" group there, was banging on the same drum on that group trying to suggest that since people in that group had a Nintendo machine before that meant that all Switch buyers were loyal Nintendo fanboys.... you know... In a group called Console Purists... suggesting you could make a point if the people in the group owned a console.

I actually had him blocked on Facebook and then seen the thread appear here, you'll notice I called him by his actual name in the thread just had to confirm it was the same guy from there.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8473155



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Zkuq said:
Wyrdness said:

Problem with arguing that is the case of people saying it'll sell less than the Wii U when the NS is replacing 2 platforms one of which is in a market where Nintendo has no direct competitor any more leaving them with a monopoly. These are people arguning long term success would be less than Wii U and the way things are now NS is almost half way to selling the total Wii U sold in just 5 months.

I haven't seen pretty much anyone predict Switch is going to sell less than Wii U, so I don't know who you're referring to.

 

I literally linked threads with people predicting that.



SpokenTruth said:
I wonder what is more in short supply right now, the Nintendo Switch or crows?

Haha xD



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Wyrdness said:
Zkuq said:

I haven't seen pretty much anyone predict Switch is going to sell less than Wii U, so I don't know who you're referring to.

I literally linked threads with people predicting that.

You didn't do so in your reply to me, and your post containing the links didn't in any way indicate what kind of threads they were. Also, the second thread didn't predict Switch was going to sell less than Wii U, so that leaves one thread.