daactual - meh. It really depends on how long Microsoft keeps the X360 alive, before and after the 720, or whatever, comes out.
The 360 sold, according to VGC, 8.3m units in 2007. I believe that it can easily sell that much for the next 3 years, provided the next Xbox comes out. You might say "oh man, 8.3 is wayy too high for it to sell, on average for the next 3 years", but the X360 is already 35% ahead of last year's total (1.88m to 1.35m) so far this year! And with a price drop pending for the US (supposedly), it should be much higher this year, allowing for a good average over the next 3 years.
So if you take the current tally of 18m, and add another 24.9m units (3yrs at 8.3m), you get 42.9m. And honestly? I think that's a bare minimum: That puts entire sales of the 360 at 42.9 in March of 2011. What if MS decides to PS2 the X360, and actually sell it longer, or there are better variables? 40m is the bare minimum, and it could hit 50 or more if Microsoft did real well the next 2-3 years.
*edit* and no, I don't think the 360 will hit 60m. There are too many negative variables (lack of sales in 2011-2012) to not allow for 60m LTD. I think it could get awefully close, but there's very little chance of it.
Also, to re-cap Microsoft systems in the Q1 period since the inception of the Xbox:
System | Worldwide Sales | Year |
Xbox | 884,997 | 2002 |
Xbox | 966,066 | 2003 |
Xbox | 1,040,600 | 2004 |
Xbox | 1,123,772 | 2005 |
Xbox | 418,037 | 2006 |
Xbox 360 | 1,144,226 | 2006 |
Xbox 360 | 1,385,181 | 2007 |
Xbox 360 | 1,886,504 | 2008 |
Notice a trend? I do! Having said this, we all assume the X360 will have atleast 1 more "major" year of sales (ie, the Xbox had a 4yr lifespan from Nov 2001-Nov 2005 before the system stopped being produced), if not 2 more years. In the current span of time, the X360 is 80% ahead of the Xbox in the same quarter for a simar Product cycle.
So because of that, all trends point to the X360 doing very well this year - over 10m units, and ending with it's LTD around 47.5m-50m. Which is around what I predicted in early 2006.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.