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Forums - Sales Discussion - June NPD prediction thread (who will win this months NPD). PS4 Wins (leaked results in OP)

 

Which console will win this month's NPD?

Xbox One 27 4.17%
 
PS4 545 84.10%
 
Nintendo Switch 76 11.73%
 
Total:648
jason1637 on 19 July 2017
JRPGfan said:
Pionner said:
$250 XB1 deals in June had no affect on sales.

and those where with 3 games (recore, forza, halo), 2 controllers, and a chargeing stationm right?

A 1TB Golden limited edition PS4s for 249$ was apparently alot more popular.

No, the deal they had in June was cutting the Minecraft bundle from $300 to $250 for the week of E3.



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JRPGfan on 19 July 2017
jason1637 said:
JRPGfan said:

and those where with 3 games (recore, forza, halo), 2 controllers, and a chargeing stationm right?

A 1TB Golden limited edition PS4s for 249$ was apparently alot more popular.

No, the deal they had in June was cutting the Minecraft bundle from $300 to $250 for the week of E3.

Oh that makes more sense then.



Aura7541 on 19 July 2017
JRPGfan said:
Aura7541 said:

So a bit off topic, but thanks to Jal, I'm able to pinpoint how much the XB1 has sold worldwide.

As of the end of last year, its US sales were 15.85 million. How much of the worldwide sales the US takes up depends on who you believe. For instance, EA has the combined sales of consoles at 79 million. Subtract the PS4's 53.4m figure and you'll get 25.6m for the XB1. Superdata had the XB1's sales at 26m. IHS estimated the console's sales at 27.6m. If we are to believe EA's figures, then the US makes up about 61.9% of WW sales. If we believe IHS, then the US makes up about 57.4% of WW sales.

The XB1's US LTD sales are now at 16.84 million. If we are to believe EA and run on the assumption that the 61.9% ratio remained the same, then its WW sales are 16.84m/0.619 = 27.2m. If we are to believe IHS and assume the 57.4% ratio remained the same, then its WW sales are 16.84m/0.574 = 29.3m.

It could be VGC numbers for Xbox One are "optimistic", and its slightly overtracked (between 1m-3m).

If my estimate based on EA's number is correct, then "slightly" is a big understatement. Assuming VGC has the XB1 at 30.3m by the end of June, that is a 11.4% or (3.1m/27.2m x 100) overtrack.



celador on 19 July 2017
JRPGfan said:
celador said:
381k in June, damn those are some good numbers

and nearly 800k more PS4s sold than X1 this year so far. Xbox will beat PS4 in November and December, but not enough to win the year. I imagine PS4 will be over 1.5m up by then, I'm expecting big wins in September and October

Supposedly the "gap" in the US is 2.45m between the PS4 & XB1 right now (read on neogaf I think).

Why do you think Xbox wins NPD's in november & december?

Scorpio 



Nuvendil on 19 July 2017
Aura7541 said:
JRPGfan said:

It could be VGC numbers for Xbox One are "optimistic", and its slightly overtracked (between 1m-3m).

If my estimate based on EA's number is correct, then "slightly" is a big understatement. Assuming VGC has the XB1 at 30.3m by the end of June, that is a 11.4% or (3.1m/27.2m x 100) overtrack.

If you're estimates are right btw, it means the Xbox 360 is quickly closing the gap between it and the Xbone sales aligned.  Unless the Xbox One X signals a major turnaround for the brand, the 360 should overtake the One by the end of this year or very early next year.  



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barneystinson69 on 19 July 2017
Aura7541 said:
JRPGfan said:

It could be VGC numbers for Xbox One are "optimistic", and its slightly overtracked (between 1m-3m).

If my estimate based on EA's number is correct, then "slightly" is a big understatement. Assuming VGC has the XB1 at 30.3m by the end of June, that is a 11.4% or (3.1m/27.2m x 100) overtrack.

I think the numbers from EA are a bit too low, but I think vgchartz is ovetracking a bit as well.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

jason1637 on 19 July 2017

Thanks for the charts Shadow. The PS4 is having an amazing year. The Pro and the line up really helped boost sales.



Turkish on 19 July 2017
Shadow1980 said:

CHART TIME!

I'm going to start off with some basic monthly data. Quarterly and LTD charts are still being updated.

 

The PS4 has experienced its best first half to date (+12.4% YoY), while the XBO has experienced its worst. The PS4 Slim & Pro haven't had as big of an effect on PS4 sales as the PS3 Slim did on PS3 sales, but there's still a clear effect, plus the Gold Slim probably helped a lot for June. Meanwhile, the boost provided by the XBO S has clearly fizzled out and then some. The XBO needs a big boost from the X1X this holiday season, because at this point it's looking like the XBO is past its peak, with YTD sales being down 10.6% YoY.

The Switch is doing okay considering the supply shortages, but we still have no idea what its true sales potential is at this point and at this price. We could be looking at a Wii-like situation where sales steadily improve not due to big games or price cuts, but to improvements to supply.

Thanks for da charts as always mang! And yes PS4 has its best first half to date mostly thanks to all the exclusives.

Clearly games sell consoles, games create value. MS thinks power is what beat them but they're gonna be so wrong. I foresee XboneX doing (really) well for a few months at $499, XBX total will prolly eclipse PS4 in the holidays in the US, and then regress hard by early next year. PS4 will likely have another stellar first half next year with God of War and other exclusives.



animegaming on 19 July 2017

Those Xbox One vs PS4 and Switch numbers really show that this holiday aint gonna be pretty for Microsoft in comparison. Their lack of killer exclusives basically made 1st place a pipe dream with second place only being at best every once and a while.



barneystinson69 on 20 July 2017

Well neogaf is going crazy about the leaks, so I think its safe to say they're dead on. So happy this happened on my thread :_)



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).