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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Predict When will Ps4 Outsell Wii

zorg1000 on 25 June 2017
LethalP said:
zorg1000 said:

Some of the people who wanted a DVD and a game console could have potentially gotten a DVD+GC or XB+DVD addon instead of a PS2 and the people who primarily wanted it for DVD use would likely have just gotten a DVD player.

 

125 million for PS2 vs 70 million for XB+GC+DC is still very dominant so i dont know why you are telling me it would still have dominated........myself and pretty much everyone agree with that.

I'm saying that because who says those 30 million wouldn't have just bought a PS2 and a DVD player? It was the dominant console with the best library so I doubt the addition of a DVD player made all the difference to them to make them buy the severely less supported competition. I know 125 million is just a roundabout number, but I think you're overestimating the DVD's influence on it's sales. And again, the software tie ratio doesn't lie. 

Like you pointed out, it was a random roundabout number so dont look into it too much. Maybe it would have been PS2-140m vs XB/GC/DC-60 million.....who knows, all myself and others are getting at is that DVD functionality caused PS2 to sell more than it would have without it.

 

As for tie ratio, PS/GC/XB/360/Wii/PS3 all had a similar tie ratio to PS2 so im not sure why that keeps getting brought up.



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LethalP on 25 June 2017
zorg1000 said:
LethalP said:

I'm saying that because who says those 30 million wouldn't have just bought a PS2 and a DVD player? It was the dominant console with the best library so I doubt the addition of a DVD player made all the difference to them to make them buy the severely less supported competition. I know 125 million is just a roundabout number, but I think you're overestimating the DVD's influence on it's sales. And again, the software tie ratio doesn't lie. 

Like you pointed out, it was a random roundabout number so dont look into it too much. Maybe it would have been PS2-140m vs XB/GC/DC-60 million.....who knows, all myself and others are getting at is that DVD functionality caused PS2 to sell more than it would have without it.

 

As for tie ratio, PS/GC/XB/360/Wii/PS3 all had a similar tie ratio to PS2 so im not sure why that keeps getting brought up.

To be fair you're not the type of person I was originally talking about. There are those who straight up say PS2 only sold so well because of the DVD player, and these people tend to be Nintendo fans since Xbox fans keep out of these conversations to boot lol.

The tie ratio proves it wasn't being bought primarily as a DVD player like some would have you believe, that's all.



Lawlight on 25 June 2017
binary solo said:
Not totally sure it ever will. PS4 is lagging in a launch aligned comparison by about 11 million, on VGC (full year sales to end of 2016 for PS4). While Wii dropped like a stone after year 5, Wii's 5th year was basically equal to PS4's current top year. At this rate PS4 will need to have serious legs to get to 100 million. I expect PS4 to peak in annual sales this year, or possibly to be past its peak already.

If it's going to make it past Wii I'd say 2021 or '22

By the end of FY2017/2018, the PS4 would be at 78M shipped if Sony's forecast is met, the Wii lead would be trimmed that 11M lead by 3M to 8M.

5th fiscal year:

Wii: 15.08M

PS4 forecast: 18M


6th fiscal year:

Wii: 9.54M

PS4: 

 

7th fiscal year:

Wii: 3.99M

PS4:

 

8th fiscal year:

Wii: 1.22M

PS4: 

Personally, I don't foresee the PS4 dropping as quickly before the PS5 is launched.



zorg1000 on 25 June 2017
LethalP said:
zorg1000 said:

Like you pointed out, it was a random roundabout number so dont look into it too much. Maybe it would have been PS2-140m vs XB/GC/DC-60 million.....who knows, all myself and others are getting at is that DVD functionality caused PS2 to sell more than it would have without it.

 

As for tie ratio, PS/GC/XB/360/Wii/PS3 all had a similar tie ratio to PS2 so im not sure why that keeps getting brought up.

To be fair you're not the type of person I was originally talking about. There are those who straight up say PS2 only sold so well because of the DVD player, and these people tend to be Nintendo fans since Xbox fans keep out of these conversations to boot lol.

The tie ratio proves it wasn't being bought primarily as a DVD player like some would have you believe, that's all.

i must have missed those posts, everybody i have seen who brought up DVD just said it helped PS2 sell, not that it caused it to sell.

i suppose we are roughly on the same page than.



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fatslob-:O on 25 June 2017

I'd be surprised if it didn't happen by the end of 2019 and even more so by the end of 2020 ...

There's practically nothing that's stopping the PS4 from reaching the 100M milestone ...

There's no PS5 on the horizon (before 2021), Xbox One X is an unmitigated pricing failure and for the Switch even though we know too little I don't foresee it being competitive in what the PS4 offers right now in terms of pricing or software for a good while ...

There's still growth to be had (even after it's peak year) when new IPs and returning IPs will help drive more sales ...



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thismeintiel on 26 June 2017
zorg1000 said:
thismeintiel said:

The truth is it seems to pain people to see Sony on top so much that they have to explain it away with other things besides games.  When the PS2 launched, you could get a DVD player for less than $100.  There's absolutely no way people were paying $300 for a PS2 to play DVDs.  And the high attach rate for SW proves it.  Like I said before, people became interested in DVDs because they had a PS2. Not the other way around.  Weird how the Xbox did DVD, too, yet sold a lot less. Hmmm.

I guess PS1 only did so well because it could play CDs.  . So, what's the excuse for the PS4? Bluray?

You could not get a $100 DVD player in 2000

Check again.

Sure, they were Black Friday deals, but you could still normally get a cheap player for ~$149.  And prices kept falling quickly.  By 2003, players could be found for less than $50.  Hell, I just saw a Black Friday ad from 2004 where you could get one for less than $30.

You can keep trying to spin this all you want, but the fact is DVD had very little to do with the PS2's success.  All it did was make gamers who were going to buy it anyway interested in switching to DVDs.  Again, DVD didn't help the PS2.  It was the other way around.

zorg1000 said:
LethalP said:

See but what people are suggesting when they say this is that the PS2 sold on a fad, as a casual non gamer product. But the software sales and attach rate completely say otherwise and outclass any Nintendo console for example, you know, completely dedicated gaming consoles with no multimedia functions?

I don't doubt that in the early days of the PS2 the DVD functionality at least pushed people over the edge on getting a PS2, but even then the PS4 sold much faster than the PS2 at launch, entirely on the premise of being a dedicated home console. 

The thing is, the argument for Nintendo Wii being a casual console for example actually has solid evidence to back it up, all you need to do is look at the decline and the WiiU's failure. But the PS2 DVD craze narrative holds much less weight when you consider 1) Software attach rate and 2) the fact that 2 other consoles in the brand name have sold or are going to sell over 100 million units, and the only reason PS3 didn't was because of launching for $200 more than the competition 1 year later.

In no way does that suggest PS2 was a fad, people are just saying that it helped it become a more appealing product. 

 

For example, a wife/mother in 2002 is looking to get the family their first DVD player, her husband has a casual interest in sports games and their kids want the new games based on kids properties (Harry Potter, Shrek, Spongebob, etc) which one are they likely to choose?

$150 DVD+$150 Gamecube or $200 PS2? Probably the PS2.

 

 

Again, nobody is suggesting that PS2 wouldnt have been a huge success without a DVD player, it would have still easily cleared 100 million and dominated the competition but hypothetically it may have looked something like this.

 

With DVD player

PS2, ~155 million

XB+GC+DC, ~55 million

 

Without DVD player

PS2, ~125 million

XB+GC+DC, ~70 million

You can keep pulling numbers out of thin air if you wish, but that won't make them true.  And in 2002 you could get a DVD player for much less than $150.  That was the price of a cheap player in late 2000.  By 2002, you were looking at ~$75.  A $25 difference isn't going to stop people from buying one console over the other.

And if that's the reasoning, what happened in 2003 when you could get a GC and DVD player for less than $150, but the PS2 was still $180?  Oh yea, the PS2 continued to dominant.  Again, a $25 difference doesn't mean squat to the average consumer and isn't going to change their mind about which console they are going to get.



 

thismeintiel on 26 June 2017
Cobretti2 said:
This i why I am not sure rather than just say it without explaining..

PS3 was hell expensive at launch it sales started slow. Pretty much my friends and me started buying it 12months or more after launch.

PS4 launched at a much better price we all got it within the first 12months of launch.

Now i am sure the same can be said for others. PS4 is very very front loaded with sales. This is why I am not sure if it will slow down or if there is growth to be had.

Don't forget at one stage Wii looked like it was going to hit 120+ million.

Will XBOX ONE X have an impact on sales? who know till t is out, but probably a case of too little too late.

Now some will argue that since XBOX ON selling bad th gen that their must be growth for the PS4. Last gen because f the PS3 price a lot of people were forced to buy the xbox 360 first to play the latest games. Last gen there would have been many multi console owners. This gen hour Microsoft cocked up o much with their DRM announcements that it turned people away from owning multi console.

I do however think it will cross the 100million but not 100% sure because Sony will leave it out on shelves long enough for it to happen at a reduced price for at least 2 years after PS5 has launched. So it may trickle over the line.

There is a HUGE difference between the Wii and the PS4, though.  For one, the Wii started out cheap, at $250.  There was only ever one price cut for it, down to $199.  The PS4 is selling excellently and it hasn't even hit $199, yet.  And I'm sure in another year or two, it will be $149.  That's partly how you keep people interested in it. 

2nd, the PS4 has much greater support than the Wii.  Especially when it comes to 3rd party.  All the big games are launching on the PS4.  The same can't be said about the Wii, which saw a lot of shovelware.  Even Nintendo put a couple of stinkers on there.  But, even with their best efforts, it just wasn't enough to fill that void.  It's why they have been working harder on wooing over 3rd parties.

Lastly, and most importantly, the Wii sold to an incredibly large number of casuals.  Many of whom had never gamed before.  Or had barely gamed.  Once the initial craze of motion controls wore off, and smartphones began winning over the casuals, the Wii sales started to plummet.  The PS4 is a traditional console, selling to both the core and casual market.  It won't see the same sudden lack of interest in the product.

binary solo said:
Not totally sure it ever will. PS4 is lagging in a launch aligned comparison by about 11 million, on VGC (full year sales to end of 2016 for PS4). While Wii dropped like a stone after year 5, Wii's 5th year was basically equal to PS4's current top year. At this rate PS4 will need to have serious legs to get to 100 million. I expect PS4 to peak in annual sales this year, or possibly to be past its peak already.

If it's going to make it past Wii I'd say 2021 or '22

See above.

Also, the PS4 is going to close a lot of that gap this year.  I personally think Sony was lowballing it and they will actually sell another 20M this fiscal year, which would put them just 20M away from 100M by March 2018.  That still gives them 1 1/2 years to sell before the PS5 launches, if it hits as early as 2019, and 1 1/2 - 2 years after it launches.  It's actually going to be much harder for them NOT to get to 102M+.  I mean, it would take like a global catastrophe.



 

StuOhQ on 26 June 2017
Wiibaron said:
43 million more to go. At a million a month average that would take nearly 4 years or March '21. But they aren't selling a million a month so I say it will never get to 101 million sales.

I'm surprised noone else is saying this. Once the PS4 gets down to $149 and below, though. It'll be interesting. 



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Lenny93 on 26 June 2017

Never, it will taper off at 90 Million.



Sales prediction, PS4: 122 Million, Xbox one: 50 million, Switch: 105 million. 

Barkley on 26 June 2017
Lenny93 said:
Never, it will taper off at 90 Million.

You know Sony forecast 78m shipped by march 2018 right?

You know that for sales to consumers 2017 is the fastest start to the year ps4 has ever had right? 7m in the same timeframe it sold only 5m in it's current peak years.

So with 18m shipped this year, and it being on track to be the peak year for ps4 sales to consumers... I'd very much like to hear how you expect PS4 to ship only 12m for the remainder of it's life after March 2018.

Oh while I'm at it I'll bring up another prediction you made yet again, and maybe that'll give you some perspective on your predictions.

Playstation fans are living in a dream world. Horizon won't sell any more than 3 million max.