Predict When will Ps4 Outsell Wii

[thismeintiel]

zorg1000 said:

thismeintiel said:

The truth is it seems to pain people to see Sony on top so much that they have to explain it away with other things besides games.  When the PS2 launched, you could get a DVD player for less than $100.  There's absolutely no way people were paying $300 for a PS2 to play DVDs.  And the high attach rate for SW proves it.  Like I said before, people became interested in DVDs because they had a PS2. Not the other way around.  Weird how the Xbox did DVD, too, yet sold a lot less. Hmmm.

I guess PS1 only did so well because it could play CDs.  . So, what's the excuse for the PS4? Bluray?

You could not get a $100 DVD player in 2000

Check again.

Sure, they were Black Friday deals, but you could still normally get a cheap player for ~$149.  And prices kept falling quickly.  By 2003, players could be found for less than $50.  Hell, I just saw a Black Friday ad from 2004 where you could get one for less than $30.

You can keep trying to spin this all you want, but the fact is DVD had very little to do with the PS2's success.  All it did was make gamers who were going to buy it anyway interested in switching to DVDs.  Again, DVD didn't help the PS2.  It was the other way around.

zorg1000 said:

LethalP said:

See but what people are suggesting when they say this is that the PS2 sold on a fad, as a casual non gamer product. But the software sales and attach rate completely say otherwise and outclass any Nintendo console for example, you know, completely dedicated gaming consoles with no multimedia functions?

I don't doubt that in the early days of the PS2 the DVD functionality at least pushed people over the edge on getting a PS2, but even then the PS4 sold much faster than the PS2 at launch, entirely on the premise of being a dedicated home console. 

The thing is, the argument for Nintendo Wii being a casual console for example actually has solid evidence to back it up, all you need to do is look at the decline and the WiiU's failure. But the PS2 DVD craze narrative holds much less weight when you consider 1) Software attach rate and 2) the fact that 2 other consoles in the brand name have sold or are going to sell over 100 million units, and the only reason PS3 didn't was because of launching for $200 more than the competition 1 year later.

In no way does that suggest PS2 was a fad, people are just saying that it helped it become a more appealing product. 

 

For example, a wife/mother in 2002 is looking to get the family their first DVD player, her husband has a casual interest in sports games and their kids want the new games based on kids properties (Harry Potter, Shrek, Spongebob, etc) which one are they likely to choose?

$150 DVD+$150 Gamecube or $200 PS2? Probably the PS2.

 

 

Again, nobody is suggesting that PS2 wouldnt have been a huge success without a DVD player, it would have still easily cleared 100 million and dominated the competition but hypothetically it may have looked something like this.

 

With DVD player

PS2, ~155 million

XB+GC+DC, ~55 million

 

Without DVD player

PS2, ~125 million

XB+GC+DC, ~70 million

You can keep pulling numbers out of thin air if you wish, but that won't make them true.  And in 2002 you could get a DVD player for much less than $150.  That was the price of a cheap player in late 2000.  By 2002, you were looking at ~$75.  A $25 difference isn't going to stop people from buying one console over the other.

And if that's the reasoning, what happened in 2003 when you could get a GC and DVD player for less than $150, but the PS2 was still $180?  Oh yea, the PS2 continued to dominant.  Again, a $25 difference doesn't mean squat to the average consumer and isn't going to change their mind about which console they are going to get.