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Forums - Gaming - Predict When will Ps4 Outsell Wii

Teriol said:

Exactly ps4 has pass his peak year, and now with xbox scorpio and NS  eating sales it will not get to 100 millions, probably making sony to rush ps5 to market, that's what i'm think will happen.

With the announcement it's now sold 60.4m to consumers we know it's selling faster this year then it ever has before. 7m already, the same period last year it'd sold 5m.

Do you still think PS4 has passed its peak?



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if Sony continues to sell 20 million per year i predict 2019-2020



If PS4's competition was selling 85m consoles each like Wii's then it would never do it. As things stand, PS4 has had an easy ride and should manage it by 2020.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

BraLoD said:
Pyro as Bill said:
If PS4's competition was selling 85m consoles each like Wii's then it would never do it. As things stand, PS4 has had an easy ride and should manage it by 2020.

PS360 was never direct competition to the Wii.
Its public wasn't "core" gaming and thus why it died in a flash and Nintendo lost basically all those sales moving to their next console.

Kinect Adventures was bigger than GTAV and CoD on X360. Kinect Sports was bigger than Ass Creed and GoW. If Sports Champions and Little Big Planet weren't attempts to compete with Nintendo, what were they?



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

2019 IF they release a single better PS4 to fix that PS Slim/Pro mess



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As many stated end of 2019 seems reasonable. Not too much later the PS5 will replace it, so the more interesting question is, if it will sell much more than Wii or stay just above 100M. If the PS5 is a great instant hit, the PS4 could die fast, if not, the PS4 could sell 20M more.



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Pyro as Bill said:
If PS4's competition was selling 85m consoles each like Wii's then it would never do it. As things stand, PS4 has had an easy ride and should manage it by 2020.

If Nintendo sold 85M consoles it wouldn't affect Sony, Nintendo's main audience with Wii were the non-gamers, they weren't even casuals, they were people who never played a game before in their life, and they all left as mobiles emerged. The Switch won't affect it either, I saw a poll last week what console/devices Switch users have most, the 3DS towered above everything else. Looks like handheld owners are upgrading, rather than Ninty stealing from the Sony crowd. I think many PS4 users see it as a side console rather than replacement. Now if you're talking about Xbox specifcally, that's true. They have the same multiplats. Combined PS360 sales are between 170-180M, that's approx the same amount of PS2+Xbox. Sony is getting back the sales it lost to 360. But not only that, PS4 is also trending in new emerging markets. You dont realize how much of a global brand Playstation is, Xbox will never compete with it outside US and UK.

Btw it always amuses me when people say PS4 had an easy ride or it succeeded because MS messed up, as if PS4 was people's second choice or something.



Pyro as Bill said:
BraLoD said:

PS360 was never direct competition to the Wii.
Its public wasn't "core" gaming and thus why it died in a flash and Nintendo lost basically all those sales moving to their next console.

Kinect Adventures was bigger than GTAV and CoD on X360. Kinect Sports was bigger than Ass Creed and GoW. If Sports Champions and Little Big Planet weren't attempts to compete with Nintendo, what were they?

He's right on all accounts, though.  The Wii, kinda like the Switch, was a unique enough experience that appealed to a different crowd.  Casuals who had barely played games.  There were some core gamers, outside of the Nintendo faithful, that bought the Wii and the PS3 or 360.  Sony and MS wanting to get into the motion control fad had little to do with competing with Wii.  It had more to do with getting casuals to buy their console, too.  And it worked a little.

I also fail to see what LBP has to do with Nintendo. They didn't invent platformers. Other consoles had them before and will continue to have them.  That's like saying Mario Maker was just Nintendo's attempt to compete against Sony and LBP. The truth is Nintendo saw a concept they liked and put their own spin on it. Just like almost everything these companies do.



Motion control was a short lived fad and Sony never tried to compete with Nintendo. Sure.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Mnementh said:
As many stated end of 2019 seems reasonable. Not too much later the PS5 will replace it, so the more interesting question is, if it will sell much more than Wii or stay just above 100M. If the PS5 is a great instant hit, the PS4 could die fast, if not, the PS4 could sell 20M more.

The PS4 isn't going to die fast.  The only PS system that died quickly after its successor launched was the PS3, and there's 2 good reasons why.  First, because of its custom HW, Sony couldn't cut the price quick enough to keep interest in the system.  The PS2 was able to drop to $99 shortly after the PS3 launched.  I think it even got to $79 at some point.  That was cheap enough for people to pick up an extra one. Or poorer families to invest in one.  The lowest the PS3 got was $199, with some stores dropping to $149 during its last year to clear out stock.  The PS4 won't have that problem, as the components are mostly off the shelf.  It'll be $149 before the PS5 comes out.

And second, last gen lasted 8 years, if you start at the 360's launch. People were losing interest in $199-$249 7-8 year old HW and were begging for next gen. I don't think Sony is going to make that mistake, again. They called Pro a mid-gen upgrade and think they mean that exactly. I think their schedule will be 3 years til their Pro model, then 3 years til the successor. This would put the PS5 in 2019. It'll be a good time to launch, because early adopters will be ready for a new system that's 6x-8x the power of the PS4, while late adopters will be happy with a $149 PS4 or $249 Pro, since most games for the first year or two will be cross-gen.

So, basically, it'll be able to be cheaper than the PS3 and Sony won't stretch out this gen til the PS4 has worn out its welcome. I could see it doing 20M+ in the 2-3 years after the PS5 launches.