Right now Sonic Forces is probably the most AAA game confirmed for the Switch, and as such I can't help but feel it might be the most important third party game (at least until E3 reveals COD or Assassins Creed or something). 

I'm curious how you think Sonic Forces doing really well, or really badly, on the Switch compared to PS4, X1, and Steam would be? Would doing well convince third parties to give the Switch a bit more effort, or would doing horribly signifigantly lower third party efforts?

Dragon Quest?

I assume you meant third party, because from Nintendo are even more AAA-titles.

I don't think Sonic Forces is a good indicator for 3rd party interest in the Switch. That would be Skyrim.

Yea because a game everyones heard of, most gamers have played, and has had itself out for a number of years and special edition out for some months now on various generations of consoles and devices is a good indicator of what customers will buy 3rd party wise?

Sonic Forces is a far, far better indicator of how 3rd party games will due becuase it is brand new.

Sonic usually does pretty well on Nintendo, and also considering its art style, most 3rd party devs won't blink regardless how it does.

If it flops huge, most likely it is due to the game sucking and its reviews will show that. Sonic games frequently flop hard.

If it succeeds, they will just chuck it up as another Sonic game that did decent on Nintenod system. Nothing new. Also it's art style is a kiddy style that those Nintendo kiddies like. They won't buy our hardcore Call of Duty or Madden game. THey are kiddies who like stuffed animals and cute characters.

Well, I also would use Minecraft as an indicator.

For western 3rd parties Skyrim is better because it feels much more like your typical western 3rd party game due to the realistic art style and fantasy theme. Sonc is just... Sonic. That doesn't say much.

Sonic will sell better on Nintendo consoles. Sonic Forces doesn't mean anything

I don't think SEGA will ever go back to Sonic Nintendo exclusivity.

If it sells well, It may embolden Activision to put Crash Bandicoot on the Switch ASAP.

I'm still waiting to see how good Sonic Forces actually is before I make any predictions. Sega could right the ship if they release a quality AAA title.

I think third party support will be strong in 2018 based on launch sales alone. A lot of devs have to be taking a backward glance at Nintendo right now.