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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Myth: Nintendo needs to have big surprises at E3 or they're doomed

DélioPT on 08 June 2017
Miyamotoo said:
DélioPT said:

 

Not always, but they changed their approach last few years, they several times said they don't intend to announced games that can't be out few years, and we already saw they anncuing and relasing games in less than a year. Like I wrote different approaches, Nintendo could easily choose to show lotsa 2018. games on E3 but instead they said they will focus on 2017. games.

 

Best GC year in sales was 2. year of GC on market (FY year that ended Mar 31, 2003.), and GC sold 5.76m in that best year. Switch will most likely just in 1st year on market sell around 10m. Like I wrote, Switch is selling better than GC in same time, and GC never had sucha demand that Nintendo couldnt keep up with it, and Nintendo very clever scheduled their big and stronger games, so that we have one stronger or bigger Nintendo game every month. Also what's different with Switch compared to GC is that Switch is also handheld in same time, so it's basically aiming at handheld market in same time. Offcourse there will be good support next year too, Fire Emblem, Retros game, Next Level Games game, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Smash Bros, Pikmin 4, some other Wii U remasters, some new games...all are possible for next year.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Nintendo_GameCube

 

 

Actually it means, bigger user base means more 3rd party games compared to small user base if we talk about same platform. Wii actually had probably best 3rd party support for Nintendo console from SNES.

On Switch 3rd parties could actually have much better sales compared to past Nintendo consoles because now they can played them in full handheld mode also and thats for some people game changer.

Of course they are going to say that! It's PR spin; They are not going to admit that they have enough to show.
Just look at E3 2013 and E3 2014 and you'll see that, in terms of new announcements, they showed more games coming next year, than games coming the current year.
They didn't do that during E3 2015 because they had nothing to show, so, they changed their PR speech - damage control!

My Switch vs GC comparison was to show that when you fail at keeping momentum, sales fall. And so far, Nintendo hasn't shown that they will be able to keep that momentum, not in terms of quality, but also in terms of quantity.

You make a list of games that Nintendo simply hasn't announced or hasn't announced for 2018.
Is more of a "i want it to be true" than "it's a fact".

The question isn't just about the amount of games a userbase can bring, but if it can bring the heavyweights.
Wii showed that despite it's userbase, it couldn't bring GTA, mainline Dead Space games, ACreed, etc.
The games that were popular during last gen, skipped Wii.

Snes had the best 3rd party games. Wii didn't.

Only time will tell if their games can sell on Switch.
Don't forget that, tipically, 3rd parties don't bring their AAA games to handheld and on the home consoles, they sell bad.



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Miyamotoo on 08 June 2017
DélioPT said:
Miyamotoo said:

Not always, but they changed their approach last few years, they several times said they don't intend to announced games that can't be out few years, and we already saw they anncuing and relasing games in less than a year. Like I wrote different approaches, Nintendo could easily choose to show lotsa 2018. games on E3 but instead they said they will focus on 2017. games.

 

Best GC year in sales was 2. year of GC on market (FY year that ended Mar 31, 2003.), and GC sold 5.76m in that best year. Switch will most likely just in 1st year on market sell around 10m. Like I wrote, Switch is selling better than GC in same time, and GC never had sucha demand that Nintendo couldnt keep up with it, and Nintendo very clever scheduled their big and stronger games, so that we have one stronger or bigger Nintendo game every month. Also what's different with Switch compared to GC is that Switch is also handheld in same time, so it's basically aiming at handheld market in same time. Offcourse there will be good support next year too, Fire Emblem, Retros game, Next Level Games game, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Smash Bros, Pikmin 4, some other Wii U remasters, some new games...all are possible for next year.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Nintendo_GameCube

 

 

Actually it means, bigger user base means more 3rd party games compared to small user base if we talk about same platform. Wii actually had probably best 3rd party support for Nintendo console from SNES.

On Switch 3rd parties could actually have much better sales compared to past Nintendo consoles because now they can played them in full handheld mode also and thats for some people game changer.

Of course they are going to say that! It's PR spin; They are not going to admit that they have enough to show.
Just look at E3 2013 and E3 2014 and you'll see that, in terms of new announcements, they showed more games coming next year, than games coming the current year.
They didn't do that during E3 2015 because they had nothing to show, so, they changed their PR speech - damage control!

My Switch vs GC comparison was to show that when you fail at keeping momentum, sales fall. And so far, Nintendo hasn't shown that they will be able to keep that momentum, not in terms of quality, but also in terms of quantity.

You make a list of games that Nintendo simply hasn't announced or hasn't announced for 2018.
Is more of a "i want it to be true" than "it's a fact".

The question isn't just about the amount of games a userbase can bring, but if it can bring the heavyweights.
Wii showed that despite it's userbase, it couldn't bring GTA, mainline Dead Space games, ACreed, etc.
The games that were popular during last gen, skipped Wii.

Snes had the best 3rd party games. Wii didn't.

Only time will tell if their games can sell on Switch.
Don't forget that, tipically, 3rd parties don't bring their AAA games to handheld and on the home consoles, they sell bad.

But point is that itsn PR speech, all of their games that they were shown in January event will be relased this year. Of Course they could show some 2018. games. In January 2013. E3 2013. and E3 2014. they showed games in front because Wii U was doing terrible and they wanted to gave reason to people to buy Wii U and that Wii U start selling, but they dont need to that with Switch.

"Nintendo hasn't shown that they will be able to keep that momentum, not in terms of quality, but also in terms of quantity." You basically don't have any evidence for such a claim, actually all is showing they know what are doing and that they will keep momentum. Of Course that Nintendo showed they can keep momentum, 3 months after launch Switch is still selling great and they can't keep up with demand, that wanst case with GC. And Nintendo very clever scheduled their games so they have one bigger game every month, next month we are getting Splatoon 2 that is big systeme seller game. They almost certain have similar plan for next year too, its crazy to think just because Nintendo did not showed or want still show any 2018. game that they don't have anything for 2018.

No, those games are not "i want it to be true" but games that realistically we can easily see next year based on infos when last games were done buy Nintendo teams. Also most of them were already rumored.

Well bigger instal base could also bring some heavyweights. Even if doesn't bring heavyweights doesn't matter, DS, Wii and 3DS also didnt had most of heavyweights and still have great sales.

I wrote after SNES.

We will see, this is different because you have handheld and home console game in one.



slab_of_bacon on 08 June 2017
Proxy-Pie said:
They need to keep the momentum going, otherwise they'd be in a WiiU type situation all over again.

 

Wait... I thought the Switch was just an upgrade for the Wii U  :P



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zorg1000 on 08 June 2017
NightlyPoe said:

My basic point is that we tend to over-value the importance of 3rd party games on Nintendo systems. 

I definitely agree with this statement.

Many people act like Nintendo needs AAA western games to be successful when in reality it's going to be a solid output of small-medium sized indie, Japanese & kid/family titles with the occasional mainstream western title that act as support titles to the big Nintendo IP.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Pavolink on 08 June 2017

People tends to forget 2 things:

1. Nintendo obliterated the competition last year with a single game.

2. That game was Zelda BotW. The best game since OoT. But Nintendo is not always going to have Zelda at E3.



Proud to be the first cool Nintendo fan ever

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couchmonkey on 08 June 2017
DélioPT said:
couchmonkey said:

On GameCube: the system came out right at Christmas and had drougts right after; not to mention Sony had a much more popular machine with tons of momentum (including full 3rd party support behind it) before GC even launched.  Lastly! it's not a handheld.  I don't think there's a good comparison here at all.  Nintendo has already addressed softwarefor the first8-9 months of release.

 

On 3rd parties! I do believe building a big user base will pull them in! look at DS.  Wii might be the counterexample! but I think the industry had a  bit of an agenda against Wii! and in fact! it did have more million selling 3rd party games than the competition - at least for a couple of years.

 

But I agree proving third parties can sell is a bonus which is probably why we're seeing the "weird" lineup that we are.  Who knewBomberman could push 500000 units.  Dkyrim should do great 

The GC comparison served a purpose: even if you have a great start, that doesn't garantee that that success is garanteed. You have to keep that momentum. And so far we have nothing showing that Nintendo will be able to do that.

There was no agenda against the Wii.
The userbase simply wasn't the same you had on XB360 and PS3. And in the end, that's the most important thing: who am i sellng my games to?

Sony and MS do what Nintendon't! :)
Their games are the same type of games that 3rd party make. Even the marketing/strategy goes in that direction; Nintendo doesn't make that type of games, no their strategy goes exactly that way. Therefore, Nintendo doesn't attract PS4/XB1 fans.

On GameCube comparison, I think Nintendo has shown a lineup of 1st party Switch games that will keep releasing all year long, where GC had about a six month gap from the launch software to Eternal Darkeness and Super Mario Sunshine and started falling apart during that drought.  What does Switch have in 2018?  Good question, but one that doesn't need to be answered at E3.  I think it could happen anytime before end of November (depending on how things go with the games they've already announced).

I will agree that if Nintendo doesn't announce anything for 2018 until January and if they get to announcement time and reveal a six month gap in first party software, that would be a problem, but so far that's not the strategy at all, the releases have been spaced out.

I won't pull out my tin foil hat regarding Wii, not on topic, and you're right that not every game makes sense on Nintendo.



WagnerPaiva on 08 June 2017

They do not even need to show up. the Switch is selling more than they can produce right now, and the 3DS has Pokemon. So, why bother when people are buying Switches just for Zelda and now Mario Kart?



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

JWeinCom on 08 June 2017

It's not necessary, but there definitely is value in taking attention away from your rival by announcing something more impressive.



DélioPT on 08 June 2017
Miyamotoo said:
DélioPT said:

 

But point is that itsn PR speech, all of their games that they were shown in January event will be relased this year. Of Course they could show some 2018. games. In January 2013. E3 2013. and E3 2014. they showed games in front because Wii U was doing terrible and they wanted to gave reason to people to buy Wii U and that Wii U start selling, but they dont need to that with Switch.

"Nintendo hasn't shown that they will be able to keep that momentum, not in terms of quality, but also in terms of quantity." You basically don't have any evidence for such a claim, actually all is showing they know what are doing and that they will keep momentum. Of Course that Nintendo showed they can keep momentum, 3 months after launch Switch is still selling great and they can't keep up with demand, that wanst case with GC. And Nintendo very clever scheduled their games so they have one bigger game every month, next month we are getting Splatoon 2 that is big systeme seller game. They almost certain have similar plan for next year too, its crazy to think just because Nintendo did not showed or want still show any 2018. game that they don't have anything for 2018.

No, those games are not "i want it to be true" but games that realistically we can easily see next year based on infos when last games were done buy Nintendo teams. Also most of them were already rumored.

Well bigger instal base could also bring some heavyweights. Even if doesn't bring heavyweights doesn't matter, DS, Wii and 3DS also didnt had most of heavyweights and still have great sales.

I wrote after SNES.

We will see, this is different because you have handheld and home console game in one.

It's PR speech when, not having games to show, they decide to change the way they approach E3. Strange coincidence!
Up until 2014 they acted this way: show what's coming this year and show what's coming next year.
So, yes, that new way of thinking WAS PR spin to sugar coat the (bad) truth: no games.

"You basically don't have any evidence for such a claim."
So, the lack of announced games for 2018, the clear intention of not revealing their 2018 plans is not enough for you?
Tell me what has been announced and if those are AAA Nintendo games or smaller Nintendo franchises. 'Cause i only know of Fire Emblem.

I'm not claiming they have nothing for 2018. What i'm "claiming" - and claimed in our last conversation - is that a) they have only announced Fire Emblem and b) they have shown zero intent in hyping people for 2018.
And if you think that they don't need to hype people because Switch is doing so well, then why do Sony and MS hype consumers? Specially, Sony. They have sold so much, why bother with hyping the following year?

DS and Wii had a new type of consumers that Nintendo can't and won't, as far as we know, regain them.
3DS sold well but compared to the last "normal" handheld, it sold less despite being in the market for, what, double the time?
Heavyweights are important. They make or break consoles (in normal circumstances).
Nintendo would kill for those games in their consoles!

Yes, it's different, but so far i haven't seen clear signs that 3rd parties see it that way.



DélioPT on 08 June 2017
couchmonkey said:
DélioPT said:

The GC comparison served a purpose: even if you have a great start, that doesn't garantee that that success is garanteed. You have to keep that momentum. And so far we have nothing showing that Nintendo will be able to do that.

There was no agenda against the Wii.
The userbase simply wasn't the same you had on XB360 and PS3. And in the end, that's the most important thing: who am i sellng my games to?

Sony and MS do what Nintendon't! :)
Their games are the same type of games that 3rd party make. Even the marketing/strategy goes in that direction; Nintendo doesn't make that type of games, no their strategy goes exactly that way. Therefore, Nintendo doesn't attract PS4/XB1 fans.

On GameCube comparison, I think Nintendo has shown a lineup of 1st party Switch games that will keep releasing all year long, where GC had about a six month gap from the launch software to Eternal Darkeness and Super Mario Sunshine and started falling apart during that drought.  What does Switch have in 2018?  Good question, but one that doesn't need to be answered at E3.  I think it could happen anytime before end of November (depending on how things go with the games they've already announced).

I will agree that if Nintendo doesn't announce anything for 2018 until January and if they get to announcement time and reveal a six month gap in first party software, that would be a problem, but so far that's not the strategy at all, the releases have been spaced out.

I won't pull out my tin foil hat regarding Wii, not on topic, and you're right that not every game makes sense on Nintendo.

Yeah, you are right. There was a big drought in the first half of 2002.

I would disagree it's not something Nintendo needed to address at E3: it is the biggest stage of the year, after all. And no ND can live to the hype and excitement of that time.
I believe it would be the best time to reveal; they are still competing with Sony and MS, too.

That is my concern: not enough games for next year (second half is pretty much garanteed!).
I still haven't seen a clear sign showing that 2018 is going to be, at least, as good as 2017.