Good post, great even. I feel that you left out one of the biggest points in the DS and PS2's favor though; the immensely different market realities of their time and the more compact gaming market overall, it wasn't at all splintered into so many different segments and demographics and allowed to hardware to sell to much more fringe consumers through a console's life cycle, this becomes especially apparent when one sees sales of games like Buzz and similar fare on PS2 and Brain Age, Nintendogs and Cooking Mama on DS. Many consumers who buy games like these would easily have been satisfied by simpler overall hardware concepts and input, which they now are.

My personal belief that the Switch won't catch the Wii in hardware sales is mostly based on this fact of a changing market. I think they'll make revisions the same way they have with the 3DS and just like the PS4 and Xbox One, they might need to do them quite often to keep up with the pace of the consumer electronics market. Being a hybrid of nature, it's harder to predict, but there's no reason why it shouldn't and won't be facing the same challenges as other gaming devices, eventually anyway. This huge surge of popularity isn't all that shocking considering how slowly they've been moving for a few years now, even the 3DS at its best was never anywhere near DS or Wii levels on average and the Wii U was DOA, a slick and more conceptually sound Nintendo console was very much coveted by its fans.

Anyway, the next couple of years will be very interesting, I'm dying to see whether Sony will actually show a new dedicated handheld at E3 like the rumors are saying, I'm secretly hoping that they're that stupid, just to see how bad things can get...

I dont say Switch will sell like DS or PS2, but I am pretty sure we will have Switch Mini/Pocket just for handheld play that will eventually have price of around $150.

I could see the Switch has a chance to atleast pass the Wii if it life long enough. It'd hopefully last longer than the Wii since it doesn't build around a gimmick. And then there is no way Nintendo wouldn't release a Switch revision later to help extend its lifecycle.

The NS-1 line (groups all NS models before a clear jump to NS-2 model happens) could come near 100 million if Nintendo pulls out all the stops.

Yeah but with DS and Wii house holds would have to buy both, if a kids wants a DS and a Wii at around 400 dollars,now they can buy both (switch) for just 300 dollars, so price is actually cheaper in the long run for parents. Or if a family had 2 ds and 1 Wii that's still 550 dollars vs 600 dollars

I agree with your last part but I don't think it will last 15-20 years. 10-12 years seems more reasonable.

Fixed that for you

But basically yes. The gaming market isn't smaller per se like many people make it out to be, but low-key casual gamers are no longer forced to buy dedicated gaming hardware. We can easily play games many fun games on both mobile and in browsers on even low-specced computers.

As for the last thing, why would you want such an evil thing? My Sony stock has been going great the past year and a half, but you want it to crash and burn? Pure evil I tell you!

@Padib, a very good post. I normally disagree with you and even find you annoying (sorry, but at least I can admit it ), but on this we pretty much agree completely.

You are forgetting one untested element and one tested.

Tested: Consumer hype and word of mouth is a powerful force that always inflates numbers. Switch's revolution may not have media support yet and may not be as easily communicated as Wii's but it is still a revolution execution in hardware design. It is a true multiplayer portable console, due to the joycon design and connectivity, and hybrid.  This is what the industry wants right now with the increasing gadget and portable screen obsession. This IS a revolutionary and hype worthy quality similar to the Wii new way to play. 

Untested: This quality is as much a disruption as the last point, but hard to gauge as it has never been truly tested.  For the first time handheld market has been successfully combined with home consoles in a seamless design. This attracts those who just buy handhelds, those who just buy home consoles, those who have one of those situations but always wanted to try the other, and other situations that we may not have thought about. The Switch has strong potential to be the first console to hit the right balance between heavy hitter games, quirky games, esports titles, retro games, handheld games, etc. Will this not sell as much due to the price difference despite popularity like you claim? Will the hardcore market still be graphic hungry and go Scorpio instead? I have a feeling that Nintendo released this console at the exact time it was needed to combat both the above questions and more. 

I expect Switch to sell anywhere from the Wii numbers to well above the DS numbers. Time will tell.

I know you have good intentions, but I feel like Nintendo haters will now trash the Switch if it doesn't reach Wii/DS level sales lol

I don't think that we'll see DS and PS2 numbers ever again. The PC gaming is growing like never before and smartphones dominated mobile market. So the question isn't if Switch reaches those figures, but rather if realistically any console is still capable of topping 150 mil units.