curl-6 said:
I made a record of some of his greatest hits for my own amusement back in the old days. A few I noted down: - Switch won't win any NPD in 2018 And of course, the Granddaddy of them all: |
Brilliant. One of the greatest minds the world has been blessed with.
Just looked through this whole thread and there are some massively stupid posts here.
Like HOLY SHIT!
| DroidKnight said: With the Nintendo Switch being both a, handheld and home console (hybrid); it will need to have an increase in hardware sales when factoring in the last 5-6 years of the 3DS and Wii U sales combined. A Switch Mini will probably take over the handheld console slot, but what's different is the same cartridge will be utilized on both devices (no need to purchase software twice). Less software being sold means more hardware sold is needed to offset potential losses from the previous generation. 80 million is being conservative, when factoring in 2 console's hardware sales. |
This line of reasoning never made sense, even in 2017.
The whole Switch was setup to maximize profitability (unique development environment instead of being split, push toward higher margin digital sales and additional revenue through cheap DLCs, online subscription bring in recurring revenue etc.).
Switch is going to sell less hardware and software than Wii+DS yet the Switch era is going to be much much more profitable than the Wii/DS era.
| Endymion said: This line of reasoning never made sense, even in 2017. The whole Switch was setup to maximize profitability (unique development environment instead of being split, push toward higher margin digital sales and additional revenue through cheap DLCs, online subscription bring in recurring revenue etc.). Switch is going to sell less hardware and software than Wii+DS yet the Switch era is going to be much much more profitable than the Wii/DS era.
|
Pretty funny that the PS3 is now considered a decent success and the Wii U is considered as a huge failure. The losses that Sony made in 2007 alone were larger than a losses of Nintendo over the lifetime of the Wii U generation combined and it took until 2018 for Sony to make up for the losses they had in the PS3 generation.
curl-6 said:
I made a record of some of his greatest hits for my own amusement back in the old days. A few I noted down: - Switch won't win any NPD in 2018 And of course, the Granddaddy of them all: |
Can you link me one of those threads? Would be an interesting read.
holzi said:
Pretty funny that the PS3 is now considered a decent success and the Wii U is considered as a huge failure. The losses that Sony made in 2007 alone were larger than a losses of Nintendo over the lifetime of the Wii U generation combined and it took until 2018 for Sony to make up for the losses they had in the PS3 generation. |
It depends on how you define success and failure. If you define success as "was this console fun to play", then I would pick the PS3 over the Wii U. On the other hand if you define success as "how profitable was this console", then the PS3 might be the biggest failure in the history of gaming. (Although, we don't know how much money any of these XBox console lost....)
I personally think it is easier to make a console that people like if you are willing and able to lose billions of dollars in the process, and that makes the PS3's install base somewhat less impressive. It takes more business skill to make a highly profitable console that is also well loved by consumers. However, we tend to get at least one console like this in every generation, and I think everyone can agree the consoles that are both highly profitable and popular are successful.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
Nah, Switch needs to sell 200m lifetime or it's a failure.
Take this early L + ratio.
Kakadu18 said:
Can you link me one of those threads? Would be an interesting read. |
Regrettably I don't have them bookmarked.
Here is his post history if you feel like doing some digging, there is certainly gold to be found haha
quickrick's Profile (vgchartz.com)
This was one of a number of threads tbh these are a few.
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/217447/the-nintendo-nx-will-be-dead-on-arrival/1/
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=233409&page=1
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=225564&page=1
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/227260/the-switch-launch-numbers-are-meaningless/1/
But the were a significant number of them and even spin offs of them like the infamous HZD vs BOTW thread boy did that backfire, Rol had a thread which he highlight why NS was going to be a success called open your eyes where he got a lot of heat from people who are now very quiet.
| DroidKnight said: With the Nintendo Switch being both a, handheld and home console (hybrid); it will need to have an increase in hardware sales when factoring in the last 5-6 years of the 3DS and Wii U sales combined. A Switch Mini will probably take over the handheld console slot, but what's different is the same cartridge will be utilized on both devices (no need to purchase software twice). Less software being sold means more hardware sold is needed to offset potential losses from the previous generation. 80 million is being conservative, when factoring in 2 console's hardware sales. If we are going to judge Nintendo's success on there being more interest, customers, and profit than time's past, then optics is very important. Noone is going to want to purchace a device that game developers and consumers are unsure of. Sure Nintendo is going to get the console launch sales boost along with the oh wow I've got to have it because it's new and it's hard to get. Hype will also lead to sells but that's not what is needed to sustain the Switches lifespan. Utimately it will be Nintendo's 1st party games that will bring in the largest chunk of the previous fanbase and Nintendo's ability to bring in 3rd party AAA titles. Game droughts will only hurt (obvious). Proper marketing and consumer targeting will create a winning environment. Anything less than 80 million in hardware sales in 5 years will show a diminishing interest in the "Nintendo Brand" and unfortunately create another hurdle that will need to be cleared. They are off to an excellent start, 4 years and 10 months to go.
(Full discloser: I will buy the Switch for Xenoblade 2 alone, even if it's the only game I will purchase.) |
There's a lot in this that ended up turning out wrong ?
So the switch not only sold over 80 million, but even subtracting the first month's 2.74 million, the switch managed over 100 million.
Then there's the subject of the switch mini taking over the handheld side of things. Indeed a switch mini was released ala switch lite but it hasn't done nearly enough to negate the handheld side of things. At 18 million sold? It's only 1/5 of the Switch's sales.
And then there's the subject of lower software sales. This thing is literally on course to become the first Nintendo console to sell over 1 billion pieces of software and the Nintendo business is making more profit and money than ever before, even with their old dual console release strategy.
In my opinion this is why it's best never to even try and guess what will ever happen with Nintendo because you're always gonna be surprised.
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