I don't think that's how it works... It's not a matter of needing to sell the same amount or surpassing sales from the previous gen, but at least making a profit from sales. Nintendo also has other means to do so besides hardware. They have their software, amiibo line, mobile games, and other merch I may be forgetting. It's not as simple as saying "It needs to sell this many units, or it's a failure" or at least that's how I see it.

This thread reeks of Micheal Pachter levels of clueless bean counting.

"The combined sales of Wii U + PS4 + XB1 are less than the combined sales of 360 + PS3 + Wii. Therefore the console market is shrinking!"

Except the Wii U didn't sell nearly as many units as the Wii, and a lot of people last gen owned multiple systems. PS4 plays the majority of compelling games this gen, while Wii U and XB1 are largely redundant. PS4 has been hugely successful this gen. It's like comparing two farmers, one that is going out of business and one that has drastically increased his sales, and concluding that all farms are doomed, because the sum number of crops sold is smaller than last year.

TL/DR? Bean counters confuse the failures of two consoles makers with the failure of the industry as a whole.

What does this have to do with Switch sales? Well the bean counters once again want to ignore the intricacies of the industry and claim that X is doomed. Nevermind that most Wii U owners also have a 3DS. Nevermind that a lot of 3DS owners bought two models of the same system and that is unlikely with the Switch. Nevermind that the 3DS hasn't been discontinued yet, and will be selling alongside the Switch. Nevermind that the 3DS has a low software attach rate, but the Switch has a huge attach rate of games and accessories. Nevermind that the Switch is sold at a profit and the 3DS was sold at a loss.

At the end of the day the only thing that matters is that Nintendo has drastically more money five years from now than they did before the Switch. That's it. That's the sole measure of success for any business.

If it makes a profif, and this profit cover the costs of R&D and makes sense for the whole operation to keep running, then it is a huge success.
If it sell 5 billion units but it generates a loss, then it is a huge fiasco.

More realistically for Switch ....

Under 30 million: Failure/flop.

30-40 million: Large Disappointment

40-55 million: Lukewarm But Profitable

60-80 million: Not Bad to a Solid "Good"

80-100 million: Successful to Quite Successful

100+ million: Very Successful

150 million: Phenonmenon

Oh in that case yes!

Im all for a dockless Switch, where the joy-con grips arnt detachtable, and its 1 peice of plastic to save on cost.

Maybe they can also that way get rid of the batteries inside the joycons, and remove the HD rumble too.

Sell it 100$ cheaper or so. 

(but still allow people to buy a dock + procontroller if they wanted to play on tv)

Are they to scale?

But they can't do that because some Switch games would be incompatible with it (like 1-2 Switch), thus it's a new platform that takes new cartridges.

Sure they can.

All they need to do is just give it a big fat sticker that says "not compatable with motion controll games" or such.

And future (if any) games like 1,2-switch also get a sticker, saying doesnt work with cheapo version of switch.

What they cant do is make "new" cartridges ect.

They need scale of mass production, to keep costs as low on cartridged based games as possible.

They need to stick with 1 system.

But they can make a cheaper version of said system, by removeing stuff like HD-Rumble, and detatchable joy-cons ect.

Even in a smaller version of the Switch I think they'll just keep the Joycons.

They stand to make a lot of money selling attachable/detachable Joy accessories, and in the long term I don't think you're saving a ton of money because the production cost for them will become low anyway. It's just really a cheap motion sensor. Maybe they'll ditch that little IR camera though. 

Sure, I could see them releasing a SKU of the Switch that is pocketable.

But a new handheld with games that can't run on the Switch, 3DS, or 2DS launching before 2022? That would sell less than a PSP GO.

It would have to compete against the Switch with too many disadvantages. If it is not supporting TV out/not having splitscreen/having lesser graphics than the switch/launching at a price higher than the switch will be by the time it does launch/etc.

They have kind of cornered themselves by having a product like the switch that covers so many advantages and uses. As price drops on the Switch, they will only be able to launch a new handheld that exceeds all of those advantages.

i.e. a Switch mini SKU that plays all switch cartriges, or a next gen Switch that does all the same things and more.

AND it would still be competing with the 3DS as well low end price and large library. There is not enough room between these two Nintendo devices for a third in the current market.

Basically within months of launch, the market would choke the system you are suggesting to a exceedingly swift death. And Nintendo would be out the R&D money.

Nintendo will not do it.