You have some of your data messed up. The PS1 was $199 before the N64 even launched. They both hit $149 in March of 1997. Also, the N64 was outselling the PS1 in the US because it was the new console on the market. However, the PS1 was never behind the N64 in total sales. The PS1 had a stronger launch, too. 800K consoles sold in the first 4 months versus N64's 500K, while launching for $100 more than the N64.

Sony didn't cut the price to match the GC, as it didn't really challenge their lead. Just like with the N64, when Nintendo was forced to launch at that price to compete with the $199 PS1/Saturn, they had to launch for cheaper than the PS2. Sony didn't cut their price til 6 months after the GC launched. At that point the PS2 had been on the market for a little over 1 1/2 years, it was just time to cut the price.

The PS3 was officially dropped to $199 in 2013, with the introduction of the 12GB Super Slim. The inclusion of Bluray was more to help them win the format wars than it was to match the PS2's success. A success, by the way, that had nothing to do with it having a DVD player. The PS2 helped DVDs get to where they are, not the other way around. DVD players were available for cheaper than $299 when the PS2 hit shelves. And were available for $50 a year or two later. It having such a high SW tie ratio also disproves this myth.

Anyway, I think this gen we can expect the PS4 to be more in line with the PS1's legs after the PS5 hits. So, somewhere around 20M-25M. A $149 Slim and a $249 Pro should help them get there. I also think the $199 PS3 did so little because we were so late in a longer than normal gen. The PS3 had been out for 7 years by the time it had hit $199. People were done with that gen and were begging for new HW. A $149 PS3 wouldn't have interested them at that point. I think if they could have lowered the price earlier, even with a normal gen length, it probably would have matched the PS1's sales. Definitely would have come close to matching its legs if the PS4 launched a year earlier and PS3 was $199.

Yeah I made a few mistakes...

I have mentioned the 199$ 12gb super slim ps3...

A real price drop would be to sell the definitive version, ie the 269$ 500gb version  at 199$ but obviously, sony would be harmed financially!

The ps3 version 12gb did nonthing because it was exacatly just 12gb!

When an update takes 1GB memory what do you expect? Also a 500gb ps3 was costing only 130$ more than the equivalent of ps3.

What myth? it's a great deal to buy a capable  dvd player and a home console that cost 99$...

I didn't implied what you thought but being also a dvd player helped it  when it became super cheap!

Seriously, how many are the hardcore gamers  you think... Relax!  

I am relaxed.  So...relax. 

I don't think it's that they didn't try, it's that there was nothing they could do.  The Cell was more expensive tech, so there was only so much it could drop.  I'm also wondering if Nvidia were being difficult with dropping the price of the RSX.  I know that's part of the reason MS dropped the OG Xbox so quick, Nvidia not wanting to drop the price of the GPU in it.  Could be why both went with AMD this gen.  Sony had to cut costs other places and we got the first Super Slim.

But yea, it's still impressive they got to just under 90M.  Shows the power of the PS brand and how great they did once the learning curve on their HW was overcome.

I honestly don't know much to throw a good estimate, but I'll go with $99 before it dies 

Which is why no console will ever reach PS2 numbers again.

Damn PS1 and PS2 were freaking beasts!!!

at the rate the PS4 library keeps growing.... if they can manage to hit 149$ price point with it, when Playstation 5 releases...

99$ with inflation then, is probably a 149$ of today.

I could see PS4 keep on trucking, selling decently long after the Playstation 5 launches.

Sony has a hit with the PS4, so 2019 sounds understandable for PS5. They could ride the game flood wave easy for the next 2 years without any need to go lower than $200, or even $250, until very near end of life.  Scorpio hasn't proven its viability and with the wild card success Switch and its "less gfx tech," Scorpio might get brushed under the rug much like the PS4 Pro for many.  The only situation that would reasonably change this fact would be a killer and unexpected software taking the market by storm, like Breath of the Wild, Halo, Pokemon, etc. did during their initial releases. Bar this situation from happening, we are much more likely to see a return of a Playstation Portable to tap into the Switch trend sometime in 2018. 

It would be ideal if Sony designed a Switch alternative that played PS4 game discs, but unfortunately without the foresight to predict the market excitement for such a product amongst the Sony handheld decline, the huge DVD discs will be an unattractive feature for a handheld product.  If Sony could incorporate the PSN to log game ownership and transfer that in some way to a pure digital download catalog, then perhaps they could overcome that concern, but they would need a massive storage space on the launch model, not before seen on a handheld device, to accommodate existing game catalogs.  Coming off the successful PS4 library would make the new console a market buster out of the gate. Given the trend to sell newly packaged versions of old games generation after generation, this may not be a favored path with developers, but they will do what they can to survive if the rules must change.  Both MS and Sony have been known to take huge hits upfront for a back-end benefit. They can even resell these digital transfers at a percentage off for existing owners to play on the new system with added portability.  If Sony does all the background work in the infrastructure of the new formatting, then there may be no need for much added development time from the original developers.  

The other possibility is that Sony could surprise everyone with a completely new, inventive, and revolutionary tech that the game industry has never seen before that either flies or dies, but usually the bigger entertainment companies do not feel the need to take those levels of risk.  The market is going to get very interesting again in the next year.

And this trend is why I've been telling people to calm down about the PS4's lifetime sales prospects, there is no reason to think that it will sell significant numbers after the PS5 releases. Slim and Pro editions doesn't seem to have had much effect on the baseline for now and price cuts only gets you so far, it already has a reasonable price for its age and relative tech.
The "199$ is the magic mass market price threshold" myth still lives on but never had any basis, smart devices should have murdered this belief a long time ago but it somehow persists. A product that is inherently not appealing to mass market won't suddenly become desirable by hitting some fabled pinpoint price point, it's all about the perceived value, which has no direct relation to actual value (manufacture cost) or perhaps even relative value (what the product offers in terms of tech and usability compared to the competition).

I got ps1 in 98. Great experience, my second favorite next to ps2. I didn't get a PS3 and got an x360. Happy I picked PS4