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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo has a realistic shot at returning to #1 this fiscal year - RESULT: Nintendo back on top (21.45m), Sony second (19m+)

 

Which company will sell the most consoles in the fiscal year ending March 2018?

Sony (by more than 3m) 260 27.84%
 
Sony (between 2-3m more) 52 5.57%
 
Sony (between 1-2m more) 73 7.82%
 
Virtually tied (within 1m of each other) 133 14.24%
 
Nintendo (between 1-2m more) 150 16.06%
 
Nintendo (between 2-3m more) 59 6.32%
 
Nintendo (by more than 3m) 104 11.13%
 
Microsoft (seriously) 15 1.61%
 
Microsoft (for the lulz) 30 3.21%
 
Scoreboard 58 6.21%
 
Total:934
Louie on 29 April 2018
Roar_Of_War said:

Too early, wait for legs, Mr. Malstrom jr.

I do have a feeling Labo won’t live up to Nintendo’s expectations tho, but Smash and Pokemon (and maybe others) can hold the fort for them even if Labo fails. But again, we need to wait for legs before calling flop prematurely. Not to mention this is only Japan so far.

I know it's early but I don't see the mass market appeal of Labo. My instincts have been pretty good so far with this stuff and Labo is neither a blue ocean product nor disruptive. It's just a cute little idea. It's not even a video game for the most part (ironically people called Wii Sports and Brain Age "non games" even though they were video games 100%, but nobody calls Labo a "non game". Quite funny how things develop sometimes). 



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zorg1000 on 29 April 2018
Louie said:
zorg1000 said:

What exactly is this based on?

They have put a big marketing campaign behind Labo and demoed it at various events but the market didn't react well to it. They treated it like one of the big guns (the only big new title besides Kirby in the first half of the year - they wouldn't do this if they thought it was just a niche thing) but the mass market wants different kinds of games. It's been like that for a decade now, Nintendo didn't understand the success they had with the Wii and DS, which is why we went from the Wiimote to the Gamepad and from the Wii to the Wii U.

Im still not seeing what you are basing this on, what makes you think the market didnt react well to Labo?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Bofferbrauer2 on 29 April 2018

And for the next FY, it's very possible Switch outsells PS4 (+Vita, but that's already near zero now)

jonathanalis said:
I still think that Sony 2018 PS4 FY estimations are conservative and switchs FY estimations are too optimistic.
I still think switch alone can dethrone ps4 in this year, but by a small margin(~1 million), not by 4 million, like the estimations suggest.

I don't see where Nintendos estimation is too optimistic now.

Switch sold almost 3M consoles with just Bayonetta mid-quarter and Kirby 2 weeks before it ended. If they can sell that many consoles with such a weak lineup they will sell quite a bit more when bigger and more high-profile games get released.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Lawlight on 29 April 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:

And for the next FY, it's very possible Switch outsells PS4 (+Vita, but that's already near zero now)

jonathanalis said:
I still think that Sony 2018 PS4 FY estimations are conservative and switchs FY estimations are too optimistic.
I still think switch alone can dethrone ps4 in this year, but by a small margin(~1 million), not by 4 million, like the estimations suggest.

I don't see where Nintendos estimation is too optimistic now.

Switch sold almost 3M consoles with just Bayonetta mid-quarter and Kirby 2 weeks before it ended. If they can sell that many consoles with such a weak lineup they will sell quite a bit more when bigger and more high-profile games get released.

You’re talking about shipments here, not sales.



Bofferbrauer2 on 29 April 2018
Lawlight said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

And for the next FY, it's very possible Switch outsells PS4 (+Vita, but that's already near zero now)

I don't see where Nintendos estimation is too optimistic now.

Switch sold almost 3M consoles with just Bayonetta mid-quarter and Kirby 2 weeks before it ended. If they can sell that many consoles with such a weak lineup they will sell quite a bit more when bigger and more high-profile games get released.

You’re talking about shipments here, not sales.

While that's true, a 20M in shipments can also be 20M in sales, provided a similar amount of consoles is on the shelves/in transit at the cutoff points



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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Miyamotoo on 29 April 2018
Lawlight said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

And for the next FY, it's very possible Switch outsells PS4 (+Vita, but that's already near zero now)

I don't see where Nintendos estimation is too optimistic now.

Switch sold almost 3M consoles with just Bayonetta mid-quarter and Kirby 2 weeks before it ended. If they can sell that many consoles with such a weak lineup they will sell quite a bit more when bigger and more high-profile games get released.

You’re talking about shipments here, not sales.

In Nintendo case shipment means sales at end.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html



VGPolyglot on 29 April 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Lawlight said:

You’re talking about shipments here, not sales.

In Nintendo case shipment means sales at end.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

No, that means sales to the retail outlets, not sales to consumers.



quickrick on 29 April 2018
Lawlight said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

And for the next FY, it's very possible Switch outsells PS4 (+Vita, but that's already near zero now)

I don't see where Nintendos estimation is too optimistic now.

Switch sold almost 3M consoles with just Bayonetta mid-quarter and Kirby 2 weeks before it ended. If they can sell that many consoles with such a weak lineup they will sell quite a bit more when bigger and more high-profile games get released.

You’re talking about shipments here, not sales.

exactly sony had 2.9 million sitting on store shelves, switch had probably 1.5-2 million, is the only reason switch shipped more this quarter. 



Louie on 29 April 2018
zorg1000 said:
Louie said: 

 

Im still not seeing what you are basing this on, what makes you think the market didnt react well to Labo?

The Japanese sales numbers and all the stuff I wrote in the post before. I know you'll tell me it's premature and that's fine, but again Labo is not a blue ocean product, not disruptive, and didn't sell that well in Japan despite getting a big marketing push.



Miyamotoo on 29 April 2018
VGPolyglot said:
Miyamotoo said:

In Nintendo case shipment means sales at end.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

No, that means sales to the retail outlets, not sales to consumers.

Like I wrote, at end, In Nintendo case shipment means sales. Look at link, those all numbers for each hardware are shipped aka sold units.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html