First 10 weeks:

Wii Sports: 3.7M

Wii Play: 1.2M

Wii Fit: 1.4M

Nintendo Land: 1.6M

1-2-Switch: 0.5M

Lifetime:

Wii Sports: 82.5M

Wii Play: 28.9M

Wii Fit: 22.7M

Nintendo Land: 4.5M

1-2-Switch: ???

Do you know why Nintendo Land ended up selling just 3x more its initial 10 weeks while the others ended up selling 20x more? Because the others were a novelty and they took some time to educate the market. When Nintendo Land came the market was already educated. It turned out to be a flop, it didn't drive console's sales and Mario games ended up being the best selling WiiU games.

1-2-Switch is even worse. Not only it's selling very, very, VERY poorly (one third of Nintendo Land's horrible performance) but also it's not driving any console's sales. At least Nintendo Land was the best selling title at that time. 1-2-Switch is just another title, like Bomberman. Both will probably finish out of NS's top 10.

I only see 9 weeks of HW data for NS. How do you see 3 months?

This means that I was and am so confident in Switch that I consider anything below 60m ridiculous.

Indeed, but you know from the "When will PS4 outsell Wii" thread that maths is a difficult subject.

Right now I'd say 80M. Bold one. We'll see in a few years time though!

Bolded the games which had Bundles. Of course this pushed their numbers pretty high. What do you think Nintendoland would have sold without it's bundle? I doubt it could have beaten 1-2 Switch, heck, I don't think it would have reached 500k lifetime without the bundle, as not even casuals picked it up. Had they bundled 1-2 Switch, it would already be close to Nintendoland's total sales and would have easely outsold it 2-1 by now?

Which leaves us with 1-2 Switch and Wii Play, as they didn't got bundled with a console. But Wii Play came with a Wiimote for barely more than a Wiimote alone, so naturally many (including me) bought it for the Wiimote and enjoyed the fact that they had a partygame to play when everybody got drunk.

So all in all, a very unfair comparision, though I don't think you realised that before posting.

I am extrapolating month 3 sales based on month 2 sales and the knowledge that Switch is still selling through its stock quickly. There's no good reason to assume that month 3 sales will be notably lower than month 2 sales. But even ignoring that. VGC has been showing weekly sales of ~200k after the launch month. Wii U had weekly sales of ~40k. That's a huge gap.

Your Wii U breakdown combines 2012 and 2013 for a period of 14 months that includes two holiday seasons. This skews the numbers and is not an accurate or honest representation of how Wii U performed.

My prediction for Switch lifetime sales is more than 100m units. I am obviously factoring in that Switch is the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS and that's the most blatant mistake in your prediction. You are aware that your prediction will be very wrong if Switch is also replacing the 3DS.

My signature contains the link to one of my threads, but I post it for convenience because many members have disabled signatures in their VGC settings.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224719

The thread was created shortly after the Switch presentation in January and calls out all predictions of 50m or less. This means that I was and am so confident in Switch that I consider anything below 60m ridiculous.

Greater than 20 million.